Industry reactions on National Solar Mission (NSM)

Observations by India’s semiconductor and solar industry on the National Solar Mission (NSM).

Dr. Biswadip (Bobby) Mitra, president and managing director, Texas Instruments India, Bangalore.
India is blessed with sunlight for most part of the year and is in a unique position to create multiple opportunities in the solar energy arena.

We have a dedicated Ministry of Renewable Energy (MNRE) and its financial arm IREDA to channelize the potential of solar energy. We also have abundant talent spanning across solar thermal, electronic systems and semiconductors.

India can therefore play a pivotal role in taking this fledgling industry to a significant position. The commitment of the Indian leadership to promote green technologies is commendable and Texas Instruments will support any endeavor towards expanding and enhancing this ecosystem.

Semiconductors and electronics can add high value in developing the solar energy infrastructure. Texas Instruments believes this is a step in the right direction that would spur many new innovations and we seek to participate actively in this exciting journey.

Ms Shilpa Urhekar, Head-Production, GreenBrilliance Energy Pvt Ltd, Baroda.
The NSM does not talk money apart from mentioning that funding for the ambitious targets would be from budgetary support and multilateral mechanism under the UN system.

The policy has suggested a renewable purchase obligation (RPO) on states that could start with 0.25 percent of their power off take in Phase I by 2013 and going up to 3 percent by 2022. This, I think, is going to be the main driver for the growth of grid solar power.

State utilities will have to purchase this power from the NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Ltd (NVVN), the designated nodal agency by the Ministry of Power (MoP), for entering into a power purchase agreement (PPA), of 25 years.

The idea of introducing power trading instrument of REC is also an ambitious plan. The mechanism which will be devised for its implementation remains to be seen though.

The good news is that, with this booster to the mainstream industry, there would be huge employment generation.

I will add more comments, as I receive those!

 

 

 

Top 20 semicon suppliers of 2009!

iSuppli recently put out a report where it listed the preliminary rankings of the top 20 semiconductor suppliers for 2009.

As per iSuppli, Samsung has been the most notable performer among the top 10 suppliers to achieve growth — although a mere  1.3 percent — during 2009.

As you can see from the table here, barring Samsung, all the remaining top 10 companies registered negative growth, with Qualcomm is just about flat. However, MediaTek has been a grand performer in the top 20 list, growing by 21.7 percent.

“The year 2009 will be remembered as one of the most dismal years in the history of the global semiconductor business, with a plunge of more than $32 billion in revenue compared to 2008,” said Dale Ford, senior vice president at iSuppli Corp. “However, iSuppli’s preliminary estimate of a 12.4 percent decline is far better than expectations from early 2009 of a more than 20 percent plunge.

iSuppli's preliminary rankings of the top 20 semiconductor suppliers for 2009.

Among the movers and shakers. AMD has moved up from 12th place in 2008 to 9th place in 2009. Elpida moved up from 19th position t0 the 16th position. Qualcomm also moved up two places — from 8th to 6th, as did Hynix — from 9th to 7th.

Among the top 10, Renesas dropped two places — from 6th to 8th,  and Sony dropped three places — from 7th to 10th. Infineon — moved down to 12th place, post the spinoff of Lantiq.

Among the bottom 10, Freescale had the biggest drop — from 13th place t0 17th place, while NXP dropped from 17th place to 19th place.  Panasonic dropped from 15th place to 18th place.

This year is best forgotten for the global semiconductor industry. The performance during Q2 and Q3, and a further postive enough performance likely for Q3 has just about made up for what has been a really bad year.

Indian government unveils National Solar Mission Plan document!

Right then, here’s what most of the readers interested in the Indian solar photovoltaics industry were waiting to know!

The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), government of India has announced the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission.

Interested folks can download the report from MNRE’s website — http://www.mnes.nic.in/

Let’s take a look at the Mission targets. These are:

• To create an enabling policy framework for the deployment of 20,000 MW of solar power by 2022.

• To ramp up capacity of grid-connected solar power generation to 1000 MW within three years – by 2013; an additional 3000 MW by 2017 through the mandatory use of the renewable purchase obligation by utilities backed with a preferential tariff. This capacity can be more than doubled – reaching 10,000MW installed power by 2017 or more, based on the enhanced and enabled international finance and technology transfer. The ambitious target for 2022 of 20,000 MW or more, will be dependent on the ‘learning’ of the first two phases, which if successful, could lead to conditions of grid-competitive solar power. The transition could be appropriately up scaled, based on availability of international finance and technology.

• To create favourable conditions for solar manufacturing capability, particularly solar thermal for indigenous production and market leadership.

• To promote programs for off grid applications, reaching 1000 MW by 2017 and 2000 MW by 2022 .

• To achieve 15 million sq. meters solar thermal collector area by 2017 and 20 million sq. meters solar thermal collector area by 2022.

• To deploy 20 million solar lighting systems for rural areas by 2022.

There you are! All the targets are right in front of you! You can choose to get into solar lighting systems or other off-grid applications, or maybe, grid-connected applications. The current grid connected capacity is less than 2 MW, which means, there’s only one way to go all the way — up! Those missing out, here’s the time to enter the Indian solar/PV market. And, be ready to be a long term player.

The targets at first glance seem to be quite steep, although I feel the 20 million solar lighting systems for rural areas is low, and could be much higher. The PPAs (power purchase agreement), I believe, are valid for 25 years — a recommendation made by AES Solar during Solarcon India 2009.

I am trying to speak with some industry folks as well, and get their views and whether they are happy with this.

While I examine the National Solar Mission document, here’s a link pointing to Union Minister for New and Renewable Energy, Dr. Farooq Abdullah’s submission to the Parliament.

More later and best wishes to the Indian solar/PV industry!

Growth drivers for embedded electronics in India

The strength of India’s embedded systems and software industry is well known globally. Naturally, interest is extremely high in this area.

Keeping that in mind, the India Semiconductor Association (ISA), recently organized a conference on “Embedded Electronics: Trends and opportunities in India”, during the BangaloreIT.biz event.

Speaking on the global electronics systems design and manufacturing ecosystem, BV Naidu, chairman, ISA, estimated the global electronics industry at $1.75 trillion for 2009, and projected to reach $2 trillion in 2014. The annual growth rate has been 3 percent for 2004-09.

India lags behind in (electronics) numbers!
India’s story is starkly revealed in its numbers. While the electronics industry is the key to national growth, India is extremely small in this segment. Taking telecom/electronics hardware production as a share of GDP, China has a GDP share of 12.7 percent, while India only has 1.7 percent share.

Even smaller countries, such as Korea — 15.1 percent, Taiwan — 15.5 percent, and Israel — 23.6 percent, respectively, have much higher GDPs. The share of USA is 5.4 percent, Japan — 4.5 percent, and Germany — 8.3 percent, respectively.

India’s domestic production, excluding imports, is $10.8 billion during 2009. Consumption reached $45 billion in FY09 and the demand is likely to reach $125 billion in FY 2014. The expected domestic demand will likely grow 22 percent from 2009-2020, reaching $400 billion by 2020. Exports reached $4.4 billion in FY09, and it is likely to reach $15 billion in FY14 and $80 billion in FY20, growing at 31 percent.

The trade imbalance is projected to increase to $323 billion by 2020 as the imports of electronic products are likely to increase to 16 percent of the GDP. As a result, it is important for some Indian companies to play a major role.

It has the potential to leapfrog!
There exists a tremendous potential for India to leapfrog technologies and lead. Potential exists in several areas such as wireless, smart meters (AMI), LEDs, green energy/energy efficiency, affordable devices/telemedicine, digital classrooms/virtual classrooms for education, digitization in terms of electronic society/unique ID/TV, radio, etc., integrated surveillance systems, and low-cost zero emission cars.

Touching on the VLSI/electronics ecosystem, Bangalore itself is home to over 90 companies in VLSI and embedded. However, most of these are arms of MNCs. High-tech manufacturing does not exist, as yet. However, the solar PV industry has been attractive recently, and high-tech manufacturing is likely to grow there. The silicon fab, however, may take some more time.

Within the Indian electronic system design industry, there are companies such as Ittiam, SemIndia, etc., who focus on made in India and made for India. Naidu called upon the government to encourage the domestic manufacturing and systems companies.

In this respect, the electronic components and accessories ecosystem industry is currently moderate. It used to be 15 percent and has now grown to 35 percent. That means, 35 percent of the costs of production can be sourced and managed using components from India.

India has managed to attract some EMS companies, especially to Sriperumbudur, an industrial town in the Kanchipuram district, Tamil Nadu. However, low end products are being developed, or rather, work that is at the low end of the value chain is being done. That needs to change! Here, embedded software can play a key role.

 

Segment-wise projections for the Indian electronics industry. Source: India Semiconductor Association (ISA)

“Our local markets should provide opportunities for the local companies. Access to global markets will help us grow,” he added. He presented segment-wise projections for the Indian electronics industry up to 2020 (see table).

Building pillars of India’s tech infrastructure: Dr. Bobby Mitra, TI India

Following the keynote of Lip-Bu Tan, Cadence’s president and CEO, the guest keynote at the recently held CDNLive was delivered by Dr. Bobby Mitra, president and managing director, Texas Instruments India.

Dr. Bobby Mitra, president and managing director, Texas Instruments India with Lip-Bu Tan, Cadence's president and CEO.

Dr Mitra started his keynote by taking a bird’s eye view at the various things happening in India today. What’s the thrust? The winner hands down is infrastructure!

“How will the growth in infrastructure fuel the next growth? If India is an emerging ecomony, are we satisfied? Absolutely not! How do we accelerate toward being the emerged economy of tomorrow? That change has to be built on a technology infrastructure!”

Pillars of a technology infrastructure
A technology infrastructure has several pillars. These are:
* A communications and telecom infrastructure built on semicon and electronics has to be a very big thought,
* Energy infrastructure, which has to be a major pillar,
* Security and surveillance, and
* Education.

Electronics is everywhere, in each one of these areas. “We can and should put in high value in all of this infrastucture using semiconductors and electronics,” said Dr Mitra. “We are starting from behind. So, what do we do? We have to leapfrog to lead in the technology infrastructure.” Wireless handsets is one such area that has already done so, In fact, some parts of India have leapfrogged from no phones to wireless phones.

What is being done now? There are platforms that offer 20megapixel imaging, especially on the mobile phone. Phones can also have a week’s playback time. Some of these things are already happening.

Go for AMI!
Energy is another major area of opportunity. For example, every house in India has an energy meter. These are starting to be replaced by electronic meters. The utilities are already doing this. (There seems to be 38 known methods of tampering with the meters!). All of this is helping the SEBs (state electricity boards), the country and its economy.

How do we move from the electromechanical to electronic meters? Here, India needs to go for AMI — automated metering infrastructure and automated metering. Some of TI’s customers are starting to build these products, although in small numbers. One only has to imagine the speed and accuracy of such devices!

Lighting is another area of huge opportunity in India. Dr Mitra said: “How can we go from incandescent to CFLs? Can we go on to LED lighting? How can we have standard LED lighting? Can we design LED drivers? Once it becomes a mandate, it will encourage electronics companies to move into LED lighting.

Medical electronics is the next important area for India. A company had recently introduced a handheld ultrasound, with superior image clarity. “All the details about the patients will be in the doctors’ hands,” he added. “If you can add wireless connectivity, it will mean the world, and enable telemedicine! India can leapfrog to lead in this area.

A lot has been spoken about automotives. It has been going from high emission to low emission or even no emission in cars! Can we leapfrog here? It is fascinating to see companies building ebikes, hybrid vehicles, etc.

Energy efficiency is a non-glamorous, but equally key area for India, said Dr. Mitra. “Renewable energy especially, is a huge growth area. Energy efficiency is an area that hugely impact every area around us!” As an example, Coimbatore is very well known for pumps and submersible pumps. Can we build efficient chips and MCUs that can go inside such pumps and also irrigation pumps? The amount of opportunity in power reduction or low power is huge.

How shall we do all of this?
Dr. Mitra pointed out that several hundreds of OEMs in India are designing systems for each one of these areas and manufacturing. He advised the industry to work with customers who are building such complex systems. He noted: “We have to support them as they are the leaders in the electronics world. Let’s open up, instead of being a chip or an EDA provider and re-architect systems together.”

He said: “They (customers) bring the systems knowhow, while we bring the components knowhow. We can take customers to a completely different level. We have to understand the vocabulary of the customers and know what’s bothering them. It is important that we co-innovate with customers and show them the value.”

Dr Mitra also happens to be the vice chairman of the India Semiconductor Association (ISA). He said that the semicon TAM (total available market) in India is worth $2.8 billion and it is growing at a pretty good rate. “We should help to make the transition and leapfrog technologies, and lead!”

Lip-Bu Tan, president and CEO, Cadence, on global semiconductor trends

Lip-Bu Tan, president and CEO, Cadence Design Systems @ CDNLive in Bangalore, India.

I recently attended Cadence Design Systems’ CDNLive event in Bangalore this week. Here’s a snapshot of Lip-Bu Tan, president and CEO, Cadence, touching upon global semiconductor trends during his keynote address.

According to Tan, the semicon industry is recovering and stabilizing, and gradually improving. The semiconductor revenue is also improving, but is still down, as compared to last year.

JP Morgan conducts a CEO survey with the GSA (Global Semiconductor Association), known as the Semicon CEO Sentiment Index. It shows that the CEO sentiment has improved from 29 percent in Jan. 2009 to 51.4 percent in Oct. 2009.

Innovative products are most likely to drive recovery. These include 4G phones, smart grid power, medical electronics and emerging markets. In 4G, WiMAX is growing, while in smart grid, semiconductors play a critical role. Medical electronics is also growing rapidly, and emerging markets such as China and India are very important. Video traffic is another big market.

SoCs facilitate innovative products and capital efficiency
How will you deliver innovative products? Perhaps, by capital efficiency! You require to develop very close partnerships with your foundry partners. IP or intellectual property is becoming very important as well. For example, a complex chip could well have over 50,000 IPs that would need to be integrated. There are EDA tools as well.

SoCs facilitate the delivery of innovative products and capital efficiency. Advantages of the SoC include developing multifunction devices, allowing the setting of aggressive price targets, and also developing products in innovative form factors. SoC designs are leading the industry. Most chips are today mixed signal in nature.

An example is the iPhone, which has several SoCs. It uses a very complex chip that integrates everything and runs on low power.

Implications of SoC development and integration
The implications of SoC development and integration include collaboration, mixed signal and system-level design and verification. SoCs require extensive collaboration.

Software will be driving the differentiating factors. Next, all SoCs are mixed signal designs. Incidentally, Cadence is a leader in mixed signal. SoCs also require a system level of improvement. Cadence has solutions for system level design and verification.

Later, Cadence will move into virtual prototyping. This will help the company in moving forward as per its roadmap. Cadence delivers leadership core products, and complements those products with the ecosystem and service offerings. “Our foundation business — we want to be SoC realization partner with our customers,” said Tan.

Here are some announcements from Cadence at CDNLive:
* TLM-to-GDS design and verification flow announced.
* 450+ customers for RTL Compiler and Conformal.
* Customers switching to OVM for verification re-use.
* Encounter adds 230+ new customers.
* Virtuoso speeds Spectre simulation up to 60 percent for mixed signals.

Lip-Bu Tan said that Cadence is a trusted and open EDA partner of the electronics industry, and is committed to the leadership technology creation. It will deliver and enable leading solutions in SoCs. Cadence is also organizing to optimize in efficiency creation and delivery of its offerings globally.

“We are committed to our customers’ success. The key is to find the right role within the ecosystem. We are again profitable as well, with $570 million in cash,” he concluded.