Global semicon sales forecast results: Cowan LRA model

September 5, 2009

Friends, carrying on with my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry, here’s the global semiconductor industry sales forecasts, by Mike Cowan. First of all, I would like to acknowledge Mike for sharing his findings and thank him for his continuous tracking of the semiconductor industry.

The just updated global S/C sales forecast estimates are based upon the recently-published July 2009 actual sales number released last Tuesday by the WSTS (posted Sept 1st on their website – wsts.org).

The table provided below summarizes the details of the latest, updated forecast numbers covering the next six quarters, that is, from 3Q09 through 4Q10, inclusively, as well as for the full years of 2009 and 2010.

As shown in the table, the latest forecast updates for years 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates both increased by +3.3 percent to $205.4 billion and $221.1 billion, respectively, compared to last month’s sales forecast estimates of $198.9 billion, and $214.9 billion, respectively.

These updated 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates correspond to yr-o-yr sales growth forecast estimates of -17.4 percent and +8.1 percent, respectively, which represent improvements compared to last month’s sales growth predictions of -20 percent and +8 percent.

Table summarizing latest Cowan LRA model's sales and sales growth forecast estimates for next six quarters

Table summarizing latest Cowan LRA model's sales and sales growth forecast estimates for next six quarters

It should be highlighted that July 09’s actual cumulative YTD sales (of $114.82 billion) growth (compared to last July 08’s actual cum YTD sales of $148.29 billion) came in at -22.6 percent, indicating that the model is projecting an improvement relative to today’s 2009 actual YTD sales growth number, for the full year.

Remember that the model is dynamic, that is, it is recalculated each month as the year plays out; therefore today’s latest, updated full year sales growth prediction will not sit still but will evolve over the coming months.

Finally, the model also projects a sales forecast estimate for next month, namely for August, 2009. Thus August’s (actual) sales forecast estimate is projected to be $16.96 billion, which corresponds to a 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $18.38 billion as normally published by the SIA.

In addition to running his forecasting model each month, Cowan also “keep tabs” on a wide range of other S/C industry watchers (including both WSTS and SIA bi-yearly forecasts) thereby tracking what each of their respective predictions are for 2009’s sales growth (compared to 2008).

The tables here summarizes (and pictures) the 2009 sales growth forecast estimates for 21 other market researchers (besides Cowan).

Various S/C market watchers/analysts – 2009 chip sales growth forecasts

Various S/C market watchers/analysts – 2009 chip sales growth forecasts

As shown in the tables, ongoing revisions for each of the market analysts are listed along with the latest updates over the past month — six during this reporting period – highlighted with (<== UPDATE).

Various S/C market watchers/analysts – 2009 chip sales growth forecasts

Various S/C market watchers/analysts – 2009 chip sales growth forecasts

As is evident from surveying the numbers for the group included in the tables and plotted in the histogram, the most update 2009 sales growth prediction range is a relatively broad distribution and displays a tri-modal “signature” hovering at declines of minus 20 percent (8 forecasters),  minus 17 percent (4 forecasters) and minus 13 percent (6 forecasters), respectively.

Histogram of latest 2008=>09 chip sales growth forecasts for various S/C market watchers/analysts (total of 20)

Histogram of latest 2008=>09 chip sales growth forecasts for various S/C market watchers/analysts (total of 20)

The just updated global S/C sales forecast estimates are based upon the recently-published July 2009 actual sales number released last Tuesday by the WSTS (posted Sept 1st on their website – URL = http://www.wsts.org/public/files/bbhist-23.xls).
The table provided below summarizes the details of the latest, updated forecast numbers covering the next six quarters, that is, from 3Q09 through 4Q10, inclusively, as well as for the full years of 2009 and 2010.
As shown in the table, the latest forecast updates for years 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates both increased by +3.3 percent to $205.4 billion and $221.1 billion, respectively, compared to last month’s sales forecast estimates of $198.9 billion, and $214.9 billion, respectively.
These updated 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates correspond to yr-o-yr sales growth forecast estimates of -17.4 billion  and +8.1 billion, respectively, which represent improvements compared to last month’s sales growth predictions of -20 percent and +8 percent.
About these ads
  1. Pradeep Chakraborty
    September 8, 2009 at 10:32 pm

    Based on guidance from Mike Cowan, I have added three more graphs at the end of this post. Thanks for your time.

  1. No trackbacks yet.
Comments are closed.
%d bloggers like this: