Top 15 producers of c-Si and thin film solar PV modules, and outlook 2011


Fig. 1: Top 15 global crystalline module producers. Source: iSuppli, USA.

Fig. 1: Top 15 global crystalline module producers. Source: iSuppli, USA.

I am extremely grateful to Stefan de Haan, senior analyst, Photovoltaics, iSuppli Corp., for sharing with me the top 15 global producers of c-Si and thin film solar photovoltaic (PV) modules, respectively during Q3 2010.

First, the top 15 global crystalline module producers (see Fig. 1) — who are the standout performers and why?

He said: “It is still the Chinese integrated suppliers, above all Trina and Yingli. They benefit from a highly competitive cost structure. However, this need not be the most successful business model in future. With increasing cell and module efficiencies, and an increasing need for full automization, European and Japanese companies may gain ground again.”

Now, on to the top 15 global thin film module producers (see Fig. 2)– who are the standout performers here!

Fig. 2: Top 15 global thin film module producers. Source: iSuppli, USA.

Fig. 2: Top 15 global thin film module producers. Source: iSuppli, USA.

de Haan added: “Still, it is First Solar, the company with lowest production cost in the industry and the biggest module producer. CIGS is upcoming, in particular. Solar Frontier also has to be watched.”

Global PV installations to grow significantly in 2011
It is said that global PV installation will likely witness moderate growth in 2011, and that, concerns of oversupply remain. de Haan agrees only partly.

He said: “Global PV installations will again grow significantly in 2011 (2010: 16 GW and 2011:  22.2 GW). Oversupply will not be dramatic in 2011, but in 2012 and 2013.”

Further, if the pressure from decreasing solar cell price continues to increase, will solar cell makers be forced to reduce prices of wafers and poly-Si to reflect costs? According to Stefan de Haan, prices will drop across the entire solar value chain in 2011!

Outlook for solar cell production in 2011
Monitoring the outlook in 2011 for the global solar cell production equipment during 2011 should be fascinating, what with several new projects along the way.

Stefan de Haan, senior analyst, Photovoltaics, iSuppli Corp.

Stefan de Haan, senior analyst, Photovoltaics, iSuppli Corp.

Stefan de Haan said: “There are significant expansion projects announced for the next years, in particular for 2011 and 2012. We don’t expect the speed of expansion to continue like this (oversupply ahead), and so, the capital spending of solar cell makers may slow down already next year.

Outlook for global solar PV industry in 2011
On the same note, it would be interesting to understand the outlook for the global solar PV industry in 2011, especially in terms of industry growth and revenue.

de Haan added: “Global module revenues in 2011 will grow to $42 billion, from $33 billion in 2011. Global module production in 2011 will grow to 26 GW, from 17.7 GW in 2010. Therefore, 2011 will again be a strong year! The correction phase will start in 2012 and maybe, last through 2013.”

Indian solar/PV scene
Finally, India! Recently, the NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Ltd (NVVN) put out the list — a total of 37.– of selected solar projects under the Jawaharlal Nehru-National Solar Mission Phase 1, Batch 1. Naturally, I asked the analyst’s opinion on the Indian solar/PV industry.

Stefan de Haan noted: “PV markets in India will not skyrocket like Spain in 2008 or Germany in 2010. However, they will grow sustainably. What we see today is only the beginning. The development of the domestic market is the chance for the Indian PV manufacturers. Nevertheless they as well have to prepare for dropping prices.”

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  1. Stefan de Haan
    December 30, 2010 at 6:38 am | #1

    Wow, you’re fast! Merry Christmas to you!

  2. December 30, 2010 at 10:00 am | #2

    Thanks Stefan! This wouldn’t be possible, but for you! Keep rocking! ;)

  3. A Kumar
    February 19, 2011 at 5:52 am | #3

    Very useful data. Thank you.

  4. Anindita
    February 19, 2011 at 12:53 pm | #4

    What are the gaps in the market supply and demand conditions for the Indian solar PV module manufacturing industry? And, how do you forecast the price fluctuations would be?

  5. Juan
    March 7, 2011 at 6:41 am | #5

    Dear Sir,

    I’m the responsible for the Indian market of one of the largest solar developers in PV in the world, Gestamp Solar with more than 300 MW constructed and more than 2,5 GW in pipeline.

    I would like to know what´s your opinion about the future prices of the PV modules for 2011, 2012 and 2013.

    My understanding is that as the FIT are been eliminated from almost all the contries, and the PV modules prices should drop to the level of 1 $/Wp

    Very interested in your accurate opinion.

    Thanks in advance

    Juan

  6. MySchizoBuddy
    March 16, 2011 at 3:44 am | #6

    Do you have the data for the entire 2010 year?

  7. Punam Agarwal
    May 16, 2012 at 8:15 am | #7

    Dear Sir,

    This data is really useful. However, do you have the data on Top 10 Indian Solar PV Companies? Request you to please provide the same in case you have the same. Thank you very much.

    • May 19, 2012 at 9:09 am | #8

      Hi Punam,

      The top 10 Indian companies in solar keeps changing frequently. However, let me try a post sometime! Thanks and best wishes. ;)

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