Search Results

Keyword: ‘august’

Semicon sales up in August really augurs well for CE industry


The global semiconductor industry can breathe a sigh of relief, hopefully, following the recent report by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), which has said that worldwide semicon sales were up sharply in August 2007.

According to the SIA press release, semicon sales grew to $21.5 billion in August 2007, an increase of 4.9 percent over August 2006, when sales were $20.5 billion, and an increase of 4.5 percent from July of this year when sales were $20.6 billion.

The release further adds that sales of NAND flash memory devices led the growth as supplies tightened and prices firmed. NAND flash sales were up by 48 percent compared to August 2006 and up by 19 percent from July of this year.

Yes, August is historically, the start of a long holiday season build by various manufacturers of electronics products, as SIA also mentions. This drives the demand for a wide range semicon related products.

Having spent considerable time in the Far East and Greater China region, I am well aware of the excitement that builds up starting September — for a whole line-up of Fall Electronics Shows across Asia. CEATEC, Japan, KES, Korea, Hong Kong Electronics Show, China Sourcing Fair, Taitronics, Taiwan — for Electronic Components and Finished (Electronics) Products.

There’s CEATEC in Japan, which is currently going on at full steam at Makuhari Messe Chiba. CEATEC — which is short for Combined Exhibition of Advanced Technologies - Providing Image, Information and Communications — really lives up to its billing.

Already, Toshiba has somewhat rocked the world at CEATEC by announcing plans to manufacture CMOS camera modules for mobile phones in-house. It will be commencing the mass production of world’s first CSCM (chip scale camera module) ultra-small camera module applying TCV (through chip via) technology. These modules are also being demoed at CEATEC.

Elsewhere, Broadcom has also fired a salvo, announcing breakthrough technology in form of the VideoCore 3 solution, which will likely be the first to deliver triple-play multimedia at ultra-low power levels for mobile phones. What this means is — once this solution is applied, your mobile phone would be capable of playing high-definition (HD) video, sport a 12Mpixel digital camera, and deliver ultra-low power 3D graphics for world-class gaming experience.

These are just few examples of happenings in the semiconductor, consumer electronics and components. They do augur well for the industry at large. As the SIA President George Scalise, says, “The semiconductor industry will continue to outpace overall economic growth with consumer demand leading the way.”

All of my blogs are now up for sale! ;)


My Blog! :)

My Blog! :)

My dear friends, I am now in the process of selling off Pradeep’s Point! as well as all of my other blogs! :)

As most of you are probably aware, Webstatsdomain.org estimated Pradeep’s Point! at a whopping $19.1 billion in July 2014. As I write this post, the number has slightly reduced to $16.6 billion. Pradeep’s Point! is my flagship blog! ;)

It’s been a long time! I started Pradeep’s Point! back in 2007, having just returned to India after my second stint in Hong Kong and China. Actually, it was initially placed under Blogspot as Pradeep Chakraborty’s Blog – when it won the first international award – Pradeep Chakraborty’s Blog was selected as the best in the world in the Electronic Hardware category for 2008-10, by Electronics Weekly, UK. I remember and would again like to thank all of those folks who voted for me to the first ever international title! :)

Next, Pradeep Chakraborty’s Blog received an Honorable Mention @ Blognet Awards 2009! That’s also the time when someone succeeded in adding malware to that blog, and there was absolutely no fault of mine, and it was later removed by Google! I recall spending an entire night migrating the content to WordPress, where I had a secondary blog – Pradeep’s Point!

I moved on to WordPress, migrated all of the posts, and Pradeep’s Point! was reborn, or rather, born!

Thereafter, it has been hugely satisfying journey for me! I managed to pick up at least one international award / international recognition for all of my blogs, every year, till this year! ;) These are:

* PC’s Semicon Blog awarded the Top Digital Media Blog by Online IT Degree (in November 2010).

* Green Gadget of Texas, USA, awarded Pradeep’s Point! as the “Featured Tech Site” for 2011!

* In 2012, Gorkana, UK, selected Pradeep’s Point! as the Blog Influencer 2012!

* PC’s Telecom Blog listed among Best VoIP blogs by HostedSwitch, USA.

* In Feb. 2013, PC’s Electronic Components Blog selected as 100 Top Resources for Electrical Engineers on ElectricalEngineeringSchools.org, USA.

* In August 2014, PC’s Electronic Components Blog was ranked 11th in the “Top 101 Best Resources for Electrical Engineers.”

Now, this year, the huge estimation of Pradeep’s Point! by Webstatsdomain.org! :)

As I write, two folks – from Bangalore — are trying to gather funds to buy Pradeep’s Point! Although, my personal preference is for a very good friend! :)

The other five blogs up for sale are:
* PC’s Semiconductors Blog. (Won an award)
* PC’s Solar Photovoltaics Blog.
* PC’s Electronics Blog.
* PC’s Electronic Components Blog. (Won two awards)
* PC’s Telecom Blog. (Won an award)

I hope that the blogs will all remain, as will the content, but the owner (or owners) will be different! Perhaps, the blogs could have a different name!

Maybe, the new owners will try and keep me on board, too! ;) (I hope, they do).

I already have feelers, again from Bangalore, for buying out PC’s Semiconductors Blog and PC’s Electronic Components Blog. Again, I would prefer, if a friend, hopefully, tried to buy all of them, together! One blog definitely can’t do without the other – that’s my estimation! ;) Well, let’s see what happens!

So, my dear friends, once again, it has been a pleasure serving you all via my blogs! Now, they are in the process of being sold off. Whoever buys those, will definitely have a great future! :) (In case, I change my mind, the blogs will remain as they are! ;) )

About time ;) I guess!! Thanks everyone, for your tremendous love and continuous support! :)

“I’d rather attempt to do something great and fail, than to attempt to do nothing and succeed!” — Robert H. Schuller.

Yes, I definitely agree! :)

Categories: Semiconductors

India’s evolving importance to future of fabless: Dr. Wally Rhines

February 3, 2014 2 comments

Dr. Wally RhinesIf I correctly remember, sometime in Oct. 2008, S. Janakiraman, then chairman of the India Semiconductor Association, had proclaimed that despite not having fabs, the ‘fabless India” had been shining brightly! Later, in August 2011, I had written an article on whether India was keen on going the fabless way! Today, at the IESA Vision Summit in Bangalore, Dr, Wally Rhines repeated nearly the same lines!

While the number of new fabless startups has declined substantially in the West during the past decade, they are growing in India, said Dr. Walden C. Rhines, chairman and CEO, during his presentation “Next Steps for the Indian Semiconductor Industry” at the ongoing IESA Vision Summit 2014.

India has key capabilities to stimulate growth of semiconductor companies, which include design services companies, design engineering expertise and innovation, returning entrepreneurs, and educational system. Direct interaction with equipment/systems companies will complete the product development process.

Off the top 50 semicon companies in 2012, 13 are fabless and four are foundries. The global fabless IC market is likely to grow 29 percent in 2013. The fabless IC revenue also continues to grow, reaching about $78.1 billion in 2013.  The fabless revenue is highly concentrated with the top 10 companies likely to account for 64 percent revenue in 2013. As of 2012, the GSA estimates that there aere 1,011 fabless companies.

The semiconductor IP (SIP) market has also been growing and is likely to reach $4,774 million by 2020, growing at a CAGR of 10 percent. The top 10 SIP companies account for 87 percent of the global revenue. Tape-outs at advanced nodes have been growing. However, there are still large large opportunities in older technologies.

IoT will transform industry
It is expected that the Internet of Things (IoT) will transform the semiconductor industry. It is said that in the next 10 years, as many as 100 billion objects could be tied together to form a “central nervous system” for the planet and support highly intelligent web-based systems. As of 2013, 1 trillion devices are connected to the network.

Product differentiation alone makes switching analog/mixed-signal suppliers difficult. Change in strategy toward differentiation gradually raises GPM percentage.

India’s evolving importance to future of fabless
Now, India ranks among the top five semiconductor design locations worldwide. US leads with 507, China with 472, Taiwan with 256, Israel with 150, and India with 120. Some prominent Indian companies are Ineda, Saankhya Labs, Orca Systems and Signal Chip (all fabless) and DXCorr and SilabTech (all SIP).

India is already a leading source of SIP, accounting for 5.3 percent, globally, after USA 43 percent and China 17.3 percent, respectively. It now seems that India has been evolving from design services to fabless powerhouse. India has built a foundation for a fabless future. It now has worldwide leadership with the most influential design teams in the world.

Presently, there are 1,031 MNC R&D centers in India. Next, 18 of the top 20 US semiconductor companies have design centers in India. And, 20 European corporations set up engineering R&D centers in India last year. India also has the richest pool of creative engineering resources and educational institutions in the world. The experience level of Indian engineers has been increasing, but it is still a young and creative workforce. There is also a growing pool of angel investors in India, and also in the West, with strong connections to India.

So, what are the key ingredients to generate a thriving infrastructure? It is involvement and expertise with end equipment. Superb product definition requires the elimination of functional barriers. He gave some examples of foreign “flagged” Indian companies that produced early successes. When users and tool developers work in close proximity, “out-of-the-Box” architectural innovations revolutionize design verification.

Connecting intelligence today for connected world: ARM


ARMARM calls the spirit of innovation as collective intelligence at every level. It is within devices, between people, through tech and across the world. We are still pushing boundaries of mobile devices.

Speaking at the ARM Summit in Bangalore, Dr Mark Brass, corporate VP, Operations, ARM, said that the first challenge was the number of people on the planet. Technology development and innovation also pose challenges.

According to him, mobile phones are forecast to grow 7.3 percent in 2013 driven by 1 billion smartphones. Mobile data will ramp up 12 times between now and 2018. Mobile and connectivity are creating further innovation.

August, a compamy, has introduced an electronic lock for doors, controlled by the smartphone. Another one is Proteus, which looks at healthcare. The smartphone is becoming the center of our world. All sorts of sensors are also getting into smartphones. Next, mobile and connectivity are growing in automobiles. Companies like TomTom are competing with automobile companies. Connectivity is also transforming infrastructure and data centers. They are now building off the mobile experience.

As per ARM, an IoT survey done has revealed that 76 percent of companies are dealing with IoT. As more things own information, there will be much more data. The IoT runs on ARM.

“There’s more going on than just what you think. IoT is not just about things. Skills development should not be an afterthought. Co-operation is critical. Solutions will emerge. All sorts of things are going to happen. Three years from now, only 4 percent of companies won’t have IoT in the business at all,” Dr. Brass added.

IoT will be present in industrial, especially motors, transportation, energy, and healthcare. Smart meters are coming in to help with energy management. There is a move to Big Data from Little Data.

Challenges in 2020 would be in transportation, energy, healthcare and education. ARM and the ARM partnership is addressing those. “We are delivering an unmatched diversity of solutions. We are scaling from sensors to servers, connecting our world,” Dr. Brass concluded.

Round-up 2012: Best of electronics, semiconductors and solar

December 31, 2012 2 comments

Friends, here is the round-up of 2012, where the best of electronics, semiconductors and solar PV are presented. Best wishes for a very happy and prosperous new year! :)

Also, a word on the horrendous Delhi rape that has shaken up India. I am ashamed to be a man and a part of India’s society. My family and I are extremely sorry that the brave girl is no more! May her soul rest in peace. May God deliver justice, and quickly!

DECEMBER 2012
Opportunities in turbulent PV equipment market

Global semiconductor industry outlook 2013: Jaswinder Ahuja, Cadence

Next wave of design challenges, and future growth of EDA: Dr. Wally Rhines

Global medical image sensors market to grow 64 percent by 2017

Status of power semiconductor devices industry

NOVEMBER 2012
Global solar PV industry to remain under pressure in 2013!

Dr. Wally Rhines on global semiconductor industry outlook 2013

Focus on monolithic 3D-ICs paradigm shift for semicon industry

Xilinx announces 20nm portfolio strategy

Elliptic intros world’s first commercial touchless gesturing technology!

Global semiconductor industry outlook 2013: Analog Devices

IMEC’s 450mm R&D initiative for nanoelectronics ecosystem

OCTOBER 2012
III-V high mobility semiconductors for advanced CMOS apps

Yet another electronics policy for India?

IEF 2012: Turning recession into opportunity!

Global semicon sales to drop 1.7 percent in 2012?

Virtual prototyping ready for masses

MEMS to be $21 billion market by 2017: Yole

TSMC on 450mm transition: Lithography key!

SEPTEMBER 2012
Cadence Allegro 16.6 accelerates timing closure

Dr. Wally Rhines on global EDA industry

Solarcon India 2012: Solar industry in third wave!

AUGUST 2012
Apple wins big vs. Samsung in patent war!

Can being fabless and M-SIPS take India to top?

JULY 2012
Is Europe ready for 450mm fabs?

APRIL 2012
Xilinx intros Vivado Design Suite

MARCH 2012
Cadence releases latest Encounter RTL-to-GDSII flow

WLCSP market and industrial trends

FEBRUARY 2012
Top 10 semiconductor growth drivers: Intersil

Ingredients for successful fabless Indian semiconductor industry: Dr. Wally Rhines

Tariffs will slow growth in domestic demand for PV systems: The Brattle Group

Wireless leads in global semicon spends!

JANUARY 2012
India to allow imports of low-priced Chinese solar cells? Or, is it beaten?

Global semicon sales to drop 1.7 percent in 2012?


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

According to the WSTS’s August (posted Oct. 9th, 2012 on its website) actual global semiconductor sales of $23.013 billion, the updated monthly forecast expectation for full year 2012’s total global semiconductor sales is expected to be $294.6 billion as calculated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

This latest update to the 2012 sales forecast estimate corresponds to a year-over-year sales growth expectation of minus 1.7 percent, which dropped from the previous month’s year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.5 percent.

It is also lower than the joint WSTS/SIA Spring 2012 sales growth forecast (published in June of this year) of plus 0.45 percent which corresponds to a global sales forecast estimate of $300.9 billion. Therefore, the model’s latest monthly sales forecast output (based on the just announced August 2012’s actual sales) continues to project even more negative sales growth for 2012 compared to 2011 and has remained negative for the third month in a row.

The model’s previous month’s forecast expectation for August’s actual sales was $24.8 billion as shown in the first table. This forecasted sales number generated last month was much higher than the just published actual August sales of $23.013 billion (larger by $1.76 billion or down 7.1 percent). This results in an M.I. (Momentum Indicator) of minus 7.1 implying that the sales growth trend will be ‘marginally’ down (that is, more negative) over the near term forecast horizon.

Incorporating August’s just published actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model also produces the latest updated sales and sales growth forecast expectations for the remaining two quarters of 2012 as well as for the four quarters of 2013.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Table 1: Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

These results are summarized in the first table. Also provided in the table are the corresponding previous month’s sales and sales growth forecast numbers which were determined last month thereby providing sequential monthly forecast estimate comparisons.

As displayed in the Table 1, the latest projected full year 2012 global semi sales forecast estimate decreased to $294.6 billion from last month’s sales forecast expectation of $298.0 billion, a decrease of $3.5 billion or down sequentially by 1.2 percent. Correspondingly, the updated 2012 sales growth forecast expectation declined to minus 1.7 percent from last month’s sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.5 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, still remaining in the negative territory; however, more negative than last month.

Also, next month’s September actual sales forecast estimate is projected to come in at $29.8 billion. Consequently, the resulting September’s actual sales forecast estimate equates to a September 3MMA sales expectation of $25.5 billion which is up from August’s 3MMA sales result of $24.3 billion. It should be emphasized that this forecasted September 3MMA sales number assumes no (or very minimal) sales revisions to either July or August’s actual sales numbers just published by the WSTS.

Additionally, year-to-date cumulative sales for 2012 (total yearly sales through August) came in at $189.5 billion compared to last year’s year-to-date cumulative sales number of $198.5 billion. This equates to a 2012 year-to-date (through August) sales growth result of minus 4.6 percent. This implies that global semiconductor sales for the second half of 2012 must exhibit  significant strength to reach last year’s sales number of $299.52 billion in order that the full year’s 2012 sales growth will break even with last year’s sales, let alone show a mildly positive sales growth for the year.
Read more…

Global semiconductor sales worth $298 billion in 2012?


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

According to the WSTS’s July (posted Sept. 8th, 2012) actual global semiconductor sales of $23.977 billion, the latest monthly forecast expectation for 2012’s total global semiconductor sales came in at $298 billion as calculated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

This latest update to the 2012 sales forecast corresponds to a year-over-year sales growth expectation of minus 0.5 percent, which improved slightly from the previous month’s year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.85 percent. It is also lower than the joint WSTS/SIA Spring 2012 sales growth forecast of 0.45 percent, which corresponds to a global sales forecast estimate of $300.9 billion. Therefore, the model’s latest monthly forecast output (based on the just announced July 2012’s actual sales) continues to indicate negative sales growth for 2012 compared to 2011 for the second month in a row.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

The model’s previous month’s forecast expectation for July’s actual sales was $23.16 billion as shown in the first table. This forecasted sales number (generated last month) was lower than the actual July published sales of $23.98 billion (larger by $0.82 billion or up 3.5 percent).

This results in an M.I. (Momentum Indicator) of plus 3.5 implying that the sales growth trend will be “marginally” up (that is, slightly less negative) over the near term forecast horizon.

Inserting July’s just published actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model also produces the latest updated sales and sales growth forecast expectations for the remaining two quarters of 2012 as well as the first two quarters of 2013.

These results are summarized in the first table. Also provided in the table are the previous month’s sales and sales growth forecast numbers, which were derived last month, thereby providing sequential monthly forecast estimate comparisons.

As displayed in the first table, the latest projected full year 2012 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate increased to $298 billion from last month’s sales forecast expectation of $297 billion – an increase of $1 billion. Correspondingly, the updated 2012 sales growth forecast estimate improved to minus 0.5 percent from last month’s sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.85 percent – a decrease of 0.35 percentage points, but still residing in negative territory.
Read more…

Cowan LRA model’s updated forecast for global semicon sales 2012


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Based on the WSTS’s June (posted August 5th, 2012) global semiconductor sales of $26.329 billion, actual sales number, the latest monthly forecast expectation for total global semiconductor sales calculated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model came in at $297 billion.

This represents a 2012 year-on-year sales growth forecast expectation of minus 0.85 percent, which declined from the previous month’s year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of plus 0.1 percent. It is also lower than the joint WSTS/SIA Spring 2012 sales growth forecast of 0.45 percent, which corresponds to a global sales forecast estimate of $300.9 billion.

Consequently, the latest model’s forecast output is presently (based on June 2012’s actual sales) predicting negative sales growth for 2012 compared to 2011.

It should be pointed out that the model’s previous month’s forecast expectation for June was $27.65 billion. This forecasted sales (published last month) was much higher than the actual June sales result of $26.33 billion (lower by $1.32 billion or down 4.8 percent) resulting in an M.I. (Momentum Indictor) of minus 4.8, implying that the sales growth trend will be ‘mildly’ down over the near term.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Inserting June’s actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model also yields the latest updated sales forecast expectations for the remaining two quarters of 2012 and the first two quarters of 2013. These results are summarized in the table below. Also included in the table are previous month’s sales and sales growth forecast results for comparative purposes.

As displayed in Table 1, the latest projected full year 2012 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate fell to $297 billion from last month’s sales forecast expectation of $299.8 billion, a decrease of $2.8 billion.

Correspondingly, the updated 2012 sales growth forecast estimate went negative, dropping to minus 0.85 percent from last month’s slightly positive sales growth forecast estimate of plus 0.11 percent, a decrease of almost a full percentage point.

Also note that July’s actual sales estimate is forecasted to come in at $23.2 billion. Thus, July’s actual sales forecast estimate equates to a July 3MMA sales expectation of $24.15 billion, which is down slightly from June’s 3MMA sales result of $24.4 billion. It should be highlighted that this forecasted July 3MMA sales number assumes no (or very minimal) sales revisions to either May or June’s just published sales results by the WSTS.

Additionally with the ‘wrap up’ of the second quarter sales results, year-to-date sales for 2012 (cumulative sales through June) came in at $143 billion compared to last year’s year-to-date sales of $150.6 billion. This coincides to a 2012 year-to-date sales growth of minus 5.1 percent.

This implies that global semiconductor sales for the second half of 2012 must demonstrate some significant strength to reach last year’s sales result of $299.52 billion in order that the full year’s 2012 sales growth is to break even with last year’s sales, let alone show a mildly positive sales growth for the year. Read more…

Global semicon sales forecast at $329.4 billion for 2012!

November 25, 2011 5 comments

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

It’s that time of the month again; namely, time for an “early showing” of next month’s global semiconductor sales forecast updates for both 2011 and 2012 as gleamed from October’s “actual” sales expectation range via exercising the ‘look ahead’ forecasting capability of the Cowan LRA forecast model.

The soon to-be-announced October 2011 global semiconductor sales result should, therefore, be influential in determining the sales growth expectation for the full year of 2011. In particular, one can ascertain whether 2011 will exhibit positive yearly sales growth for the industry or will it turn negative as a number of market researchers have recently forecasted based upon downward fourth quarter sales guidance recently announced by many semiconductor suppliers in reporting their third quarter financials?

Therefore, presented here is a “snap shot” of 2011’s global semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast prospects as a function of October’s possible “actual” sales forecast estimate range as derived via the Cowan LRA forecasting model that I have developed and previously shared. Moreover, the model has been extended in order to include a view of what 2012?s sales growth prospects might look like thereby providing a five quarter look ahead horizon that allows the model to also capture the four quarters of 2012.

It should be mentioned that October 2011’s “actual” global semiconductor sales number is scheduled to be released by the WSTS via its monthly HBR (Historical Billings Report) on or about Monday, December 5th.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

In advance of the WSTS’s release of its October HBR, here’s a monthly “what if” outlook analysis. The analysis leverages the Cowan LRA forecasting model, which projects worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011 (as well as 2012) by providing a “look ahead” scenario for year 2011’s sales forecast range as a function of October’s assumed range of “actual” global semiconductor sales estimates.

The output of this “look ahead” modeling analysis is detailed in the scenario analysis matrix displayed in the table below. A discussion of the model’s results is provided in the paragraphs immediately following the table.

To facilitate the determination of these “look ahead” forecast numbers, an extended range in assumed October 2011’s “actual” sales is selected a-priori. In this month’s scenario analysis outlook, an Oct. 2011 sales range from a low of $23.948 billion to a high of $26.948 billion, in increments of $0.250 billion, is pre-selected as listed in first column of the table. Read more…

Updated global semicon sales forecast 2011’s estimate falls $2.74 billion


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

On Wednesday, Nov. 2nd, 2011, the WSTS posted its Sept. 2011’s HBR (Historical Billings Report) on its website thereby facilitating the calculation of the monthly update for the latest global semi sales forecast estimates for 2011 and 2012 via exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

These latest forecast results reflect September 2011’s actual monthly sales and include revisions to previous months’ reported sales numbers. According to the WSTS’s September HBR, September’s actual global semiconductor sales came in at $29.442 billion with a corresponding September 3MMA sales of $25.764 billion.

It should be highlighted that two of the previous eight months (January through August), namely July and August, experienced very minor sales revisions from last month’s published HBR. Thus, the YTD cumulative global semiconductor sales through September totaled $227.852 billion.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

This represents a 2011 YTD sales growth of 2.2 percent compared to the same time period in 2010 when September 2010’s YTD sales were $222.853 billion. This continues a downward trend in the month-to-month 2011 YTD sales growth numbers from the beginning of the year as shown in the table here.

The Cowan LRA model’s sales forecast estimates for the month of September as determined by last month’s model run were $31.528 billion (actual) and $26.413 billion (3MMA), respectively. Consequently, the model’s September sales MI (Momentum Indicator) came in at minus 6.2 percent which marginally improved from last month’s sales MI of minus 7.5 percent.

This indicates (mathematically speaking) that semicon industry’s Sept.’s actual sales came in $1.959 billion lower than the model’s previous month’s forecasted expectation. This suggests 2011’s sales growth could continue to trend downward for remainder of this year relative to this month’s 2011 sales growth expectation of 3 percent as discussed below. Read more…

%d bloggers like this: