Semicon sales up in August really augurs well for CE industry

The global semiconductor industry can breathe a sigh of relief, hopefully, following the recent report by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), which has said that worldwide semicon sales were up sharply in August 2007.

According to the SIA press release, semicon sales grew to $21.5 billion in August 2007, an increase of 4.9 percent over August 2006, when sales were $20.5 billion, and an increase of 4.5 percent from July of this year when sales were $20.6 billion.

The release further adds that sales of NAND flash memory devices led the growth as supplies tightened and prices firmed. NAND flash sales were up by 48 percent compared to August 2006 and up by 19 percent from July of this year.

Yes, August is historically, the start of a long holiday season build by various manufacturers of electronics products, as SIA also mentions. This drives the demand for a wide range semicon related products.

Having spent considerable time in the Far East and Greater China region, I am well aware of the excitement that builds up starting September — for a whole line-up of Fall Electronics Shows across Asia. CEATEC, Japan, KES, Korea, Hong Kong Electronics Show, China Sourcing Fair, Taitronics, Taiwan — for Electronic Components and Finished (Electronics) Products.

There’s CEATEC in Japan, which is currently going on at full steam at Makuhari Messe Chiba. CEATEC — which is short for Combined Exhibition of Advanced Technologies － Providing Image, Information and Communications — really lives up to its billing.

Already, Toshiba has somewhat rocked the world at CEATEC by announcing plans to manufacture CMOS camera modules for mobile phones in-house. It will be commencing the mass production of world’s first CSCM (chip scale camera module) ultra-small camera module applying TCV (through chip via) technology. These modules are also being demoed at CEATEC.

Elsewhere, Broadcom has also fired a salvo, announcing breakthrough technology in form of the VideoCore 3 solution, which will likely be the first to deliver triple-play multimedia at ultra-low power levels for mobile phones. What this means is — once this solution is applied, your mobile phone would be capable of playing high-definition (HD) video, sport a 12Mpixel digital camera, and deliver ultra-low power 3D graphics for world-class gaming experience.

These are just few examples of happenings in the semiconductor, consumer electronics and components. They do augur well for the industry at large. As the SIA President George Scalise, says, “The semiconductor industry will continue to outpace overall economic growth with consumer demand leading the way.”

Round-up 2012: Best of electronics, semiconductors and solar

Friends, here is the round-up of 2012, where the best of electronics, semiconductors and solar PV are presented. Best wishes for a very happy and prosperous new year!

Also, a word on the horrendous Delhi rape that has shaken up India. I am ashamed to be a man and a part of India’s society. My family and I are extremely sorry that the brave girl is no more! May her soul rest in peace. May God deliver justice, and quickly!

DECEMBER 2012
Opportunities in turbulent PV equipment market

Global semiconductor industry outlook 2013: Jaswinder Ahuja, Cadence

Next wave of design challenges, and future growth of EDA: Dr. Wally Rhines

Global medical image sensors market to grow 64 percent by 2017

Status of power semiconductor devices industry

NOVEMBER 2012
Global solar PV industry to remain under pressure in 2013!

Dr. Wally Rhines on global semiconductor industry outlook 2013

Focus on monolithic 3D-ICs paradigm shift for semicon industry

Xilinx announces 20nm portfolio strategy

Elliptic intros world’s first commercial touchless gesturing technology!

Global semiconductor industry outlook 2013: Analog Devices

IMEC’s 450mm R&D initiative for nanoelectronics ecosystem

OCTOBER 2012
III-V high mobility semiconductors for advanced CMOS apps

Yet another electronics policy for India?

IEF 2012: Turning recession into opportunity!

Global semicon sales to drop 1.7 percent in 2012?

Virtual prototyping ready for masses

MEMS to be $21 billion market by 2017: Yole

TSMC on 450mm transition: Lithography key!

SEPTEMBER 2012
Cadence Allegro 16.6 accelerates timing closure

Dr. Wally Rhines on global EDA industry

Solarcon India 2012: Solar industry in third wave!

AUGUST 2012
Apple wins big vs. Samsung in patent war!

Can being fabless and M-SIPS take India to top?

JULY 2012
Is Europe ready for 450mm fabs?

APRIL 2012
Xilinx intros Vivado Design Suite

MARCH 2012
Cadence releases latest Encounter RTL-to-GDSII flow

WLCSP market and industrial trends

FEBRUARY 2012
Top 10 semiconductor growth drivers: Intersil

Ingredients for successful fabless Indian semiconductor industry: Dr. Wally Rhines

Tariffs will slow growth in domestic demand for PV systems: The Brattle Group

Wireless leads in global semicon spends!

JANUARY 2012
India to allow imports of low-priced Chinese solar cells? Or, is it beaten?

Global semicon sales to drop 1.7 percent in 2012?

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

According to the WSTS’s August (posted Oct. 9th, 2012 on its website) actual global semiconductor sales of $23.013 billion, the updated monthly forecast expectation for full year 2012′s total global semiconductor sales is expected to be $294.6 billion as calculated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

This latest update to the 2012 sales forecast estimate corresponds to a year-over-year sales growth expectation of minus 1.7 percent, which dropped from the previous month’s year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.5 percent.

It is also lower than the joint WSTS/SIA Spring 2012 sales growth forecast (published in June of this year) of plus 0.45 percent which corresponds to a global sales forecast estimate of $300.9 billion. Therefore, the model’s latest monthly sales forecast output (based on the just announced August 2012’s actual sales) continues to project even more negative sales growth for 2012 compared to 2011 and has remained negative for the third month in a row.

The model’s previous month’s forecast expectation for August’s actual sales was $24.8 billion as shown in the first table. This forecasted sales number generated last month was much higher than the just published actual August sales of $23.013 billion (larger by $1.76 billion or down 7.1 percent). This results in an M.I. (Momentum Indicator) of minus 7.1 implying that the sales growth trend will be ‘marginally’ down (that is, more negative) over the near term forecast horizon.

Incorporating August’s just published actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model also produces the latest updated sales and sales growth forecast expectations for the remaining two quarters of 2012 as well as for the four quarters of 2013.

Table 1: Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

These results are summarized in the first table. Also provided in the table are the corresponding previous month’s sales and sales growth forecast numbers which were determined last month thereby providing sequential monthly forecast estimate comparisons.

As displayed in the Table 1, the latest projected full year 2012 global semi sales forecast estimate decreased to $294.6 billion from last month’s sales forecast expectation of $298.0 billion, a decrease of $3.5 billion or down sequentially by 1.2 percent. Correspondingly, the updated 2012 sales growth forecast expectation declined to minus 1.7 percent from last month’s sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.5 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, still remaining in the negative territory; however, more negative than last month.

Also, next month’s September actual sales forecast estimate is projected to come in at $29.8 billion. Consequently, the resulting September’s actual sales forecast estimate equates to a September 3MMA sales expectation of $25.5 billion which is up from August’s 3MMA sales result of $24.3 billion. It should be emphasized that this forecasted September 3MMA sales number assumes no (or very minimal) sales revisions to either July or August’s actual sales numbers just published by the WSTS.

Additionally, year-to-date cumulative sales for 2012 (total yearly sales through August) came in at $189.5 billion compared to last year’s year-to-date cumulative sales number of $198.5 billion. This equates to a 2012 year-to-date (through August) sales growth result of minus 4.6 percent. This implies that global semiconductor sales for the second half of 2012 must exhibit  significant strength to reach last year’s sales number of $299.52 billion in order that the full year’s 2012 sales growth will break even with last year’s sales, let alone show a mildly positive sales growth for the year.

Global semiconductor sales worth $298 billion in 2012?

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

According to the WSTS’s July (posted Sept. 8th, 2012) actual global semiconductor sales of $23.977 billion, the latest monthly forecast expectation for 2012’s total global semiconductor sales came in at $298 billion as calculated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

This latest update to the 2012 sales forecast corresponds to a year-over-year sales growth expectation of minus 0.5 percent, which improved slightly from the previous month’s year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.85 percent. It is also lower than the joint WSTS/SIA Spring 2012 sales growth forecast of 0.45 percent, which corresponds to a global sales forecast estimate of $300.9 billion. Therefore, the model’s latest monthly forecast output (based on the just announced July 2012’s actual sales) continues to indicate negative sales growth for 2012 compared to 2011 for the second month in a row.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

The model’s previous month’s forecast expectation for July’s actual sales was $23.16 billion as shown in the first table. This forecasted sales number (generated last month) was lower than the actual July published sales of $23.98 billion (larger by $0.82 billion or up 3.5 percent).

This results in an M.I. (Momentum Indicator) of plus 3.5 implying that the sales growth trend will be “marginally” up (that is, slightly less negative) over the near term forecast horizon.

Inserting July’s just published actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model also produces the latest updated sales and sales growth forecast expectations for the remaining two quarters of 2012 as well as the first two quarters of 2013.

These results are summarized in the first table. Also provided in the table are the previous month’s sales and sales growth forecast numbers, which were derived last month, thereby providing sequential monthly forecast estimate comparisons.

As displayed in the first table, the latest projected full year 2012 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate increased to $298 billion from last month’s sales forecast expectation of $297 billion – an increase of $1 billion. Correspondingly, the updated 2012 sales growth forecast estimate improved to minus 0.5 percent from last month’s sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.85 percent – a decrease of 0.35 percentage points, but still residing in negative territory.

Cowan LRA model’s updated forecast for global semicon sales 2012

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Based on the WSTS’s June (posted August 5th, 2012) global semiconductor sales of $26.329 billion, actual sales number, the latest monthly forecast expectation for total global semiconductor sales calculated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model came in at $297 billion.

This represents a 2012 year-on-year sales growth forecast expectation of minus 0.85 percent, which declined from the previous month’s year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of plus 0.1 percent. It is also lower than the joint WSTS/SIA Spring 2012 sales growth forecast of 0.45 percent, which corresponds to a global sales forecast estimate of $300.9 billion.

Consequently, the latest model’s forecast output is presently (based on June 2012′s actual sales) predicting negative sales growth for 2012 compared to 2011.

It should be pointed out that the model’s previous month’s forecast expectation for June was $27.65 billion. This forecasted sales (published last month) was much higher than the actual June sales result of $26.33 billion (lower by $1.32 billion or down 4.8 percent) resulting in an M.I. (Momentum Indictor) of minus 4.8, implying that the sales growth trend will be ‘mildly’ down over the near term.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Inserting June’s actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model also yields the latest updated sales forecast expectations for the remaining two quarters of 2012 and the first two quarters of 2013. These results are summarized in the table below. Also included in the table are previous month’s sales and sales growth forecast results for comparative purposes.

As displayed in Table 1, the latest projected full year 2012 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate fell to $297 billion from last month’s sales forecast expectation of $299.8 billion, a decrease of $2.8 billion.

Correspondingly, the updated 2012 sales growth forecast estimate went negative, dropping to minus 0.85 percent from last month’s slightly positive sales growth forecast estimate of plus 0.11 percent, a decrease of almost a full percentage point.

Also note that July’s actual sales estimate is forecasted to come in at $23.2 billion. Thus, July’s actual sales forecast estimate equates to a July 3MMA sales expectation of $24.15 billion, which is down slightly from June’s 3MMA sales result of $24.4 billion. It should be highlighted that this forecasted July 3MMA sales number assumes no (or very minimal) sales revisions to either May or June’s just published sales results by the WSTS.

Additionally with the ‘wrap up’ of the second quarter sales results, year-to-date sales for 2012 (cumulative sales through June) came in at $143 billion compared to last year’s year-to-date sales of $150.6 billion. This coincides to a 2012 year-to-date sales growth of minus 5.1 percent.

This implies that global semiconductor sales for the second half of 2012 must demonstrate some significant strength to reach last year’s sales result of $299.52 billion in order that the full year’s 2012 sales growth is to break even with last year’s sales, let alone show a mildly positive sales growth for the year.

Global semicon sales forecast at $329.4 billion for 2012!

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

It’s that time of the month again; namely, time for an “early showing” of next month’s global semiconductor sales forecast updates for both 2011 and 2012 as gleamed from October’s “actual” sales expectation range via exercising the ‘look ahead’ forecasting capability of the Cowan LRA forecast model.

The soon to-be-announced October 2011 global semiconductor sales result should, therefore, be influential in determining the sales growth expectation for the full year of 2011. In particular, one can ascertain whether 2011 will exhibit positive yearly sales growth for the industry or will it turn negative as a number of market researchers have recently forecasted based upon downward fourth quarter sales guidance recently announced by many semiconductor suppliers in reporting their third quarter financials?

Therefore, presented here is a “snap shot” of 2011′s global semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast prospects as a function of October’s possible “actual” sales forecast estimate range as derived via the Cowan LRA forecasting model that I have developed and previously shared. Moreover, the model has been extended in order to include a view of what 2012?s sales growth prospects might look like thereby providing a five quarter look ahead horizon that allows the model to also capture the four quarters of 2012.

It should be mentioned that October 2011′s “actual” global semiconductor sales number is scheduled to be released by the WSTS via its monthly HBR (Historical Billings Report) on or about Monday, December 5th.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

In advance of the WSTS’s release of its October HBR, here’s a monthly “what if” outlook analysis. The analysis leverages the Cowan LRA forecasting model, which projects worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011 (as well as 2012) by providing a “look ahead” scenario for year 2011′s sales forecast range as a function of October’s assumed range of “actual” global semiconductor sales estimates.

The output of this “look ahead” modeling analysis is detailed in the scenario analysis matrix displayed in the table below. A discussion of the model’s results is provided in the paragraphs immediately following the table.

To facilitate the determination of these “look ahead” forecast numbers, an extended range in assumed October 2011′s “actual” sales is selected a-priori. In this month’s scenario analysis outlook, an Oct. 2011 sales range from a low of $23.948 billion to a high of $26.948 billion, in increments of $0.250 billion, is pre-selected as listed in first column of the table.

Updated global semicon sales forecast 2011′s estimate falls $2.74 billion

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

On Wednesday, Nov. 2nd, 2011, the WSTS posted its Sept. 2011′s HBR (Historical Billings Report) on its website thereby facilitating the calculation of the monthly update for the latest global semi sales forecast estimates for 2011 and 2012 via exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

These latest forecast results reflect September 2011′s actual monthly sales and include revisions to previous months’ reported sales numbers. According to the WSTS’s September HBR, September’s actual global semiconductor sales came in at $29.442 billion with a corresponding September 3MMA sales of $25.764 billion.

It should be highlighted that two of the previous eight months (January through August), namely July and August, experienced very minor sales revisions from last month’s published HBR. Thus, the YTD cumulative global semiconductor sales through September totaled $227.852 billion.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

This represents a 2011 YTD sales growth of 2.2 percent compared to the same time period in 2010 when September 2010′s YTD sales were $222.853 billion. This continues a downward trend in the month-to-month 2011 YTD sales growth numbers from the beginning of the year as shown in the table here.

The Cowan LRA model’s sales forecast estimates for the month of September as determined by last month’s model run were $31.528 billion (actual) and $26.413 billion (3MMA), respectively. Consequently, the model’s September sales MI (Momentum Indicator) came in at minus 6.2 percent which marginally improved from last month’s sales MI of minus 7.5 percent.

This indicates (mathematically speaking) that semicon industry’s Sept.’s actual sales came in $1.959 billion lower than the model’s previous month’s forecasted expectation. This suggests 2011′s sales growth could continue to trend downward for remainder of this year relative to this month’s 2011 sales growth expectation of 3 percent as discussed below.

2011 sales estimate could vary between $303.8 billion and $311.9 billion: Cowan LRA model

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

It’s that time of the month again; namely, time for an advanced showing of next month’s global semiconductor sales forecast updates for both 2011 and 2012 as gleamed from September’s “actual” sales expectation range by exercising the “look ahead” forecasting capability of the Cowan LRA forecast model.

September’s upcoming global semiconductor sales result should, therefore, be instrumental in determining the sales growth expectation not only for the third quarter of 2011 but also for the full year of 2011. In particular, one can ascertain whether 2011 will exhibit positive yearly sales growth for the industry or will it turn negative as a number of market researchers have recently forecasted based upon downward third quarter sales guidance recently announced by many semiconductor suppliers?

Therefore, presented here is a “snap shot” of 2011′s global semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast prospects as a function of September’s “actual” sales forecast estimate range as derived via the Cowan LRA forecasting model. Moreover, the model has been extended in order to include a view of what 2012’s sales growth prospects might look like, thereby, providing a six quarter look ahead horizon that allows the model to also capture the four quarters of 2012.

It should be mentioned that September 2011′s “actual” global semiconductor sales number is scheduled to be released by the WSTS via its monthly HBR (Historical Billings Report) on or about Friday, November 4th.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

In advance of the WSTS’s release of its September HBR, here is the monthly outlook analysis leveraging the Cowan LRA forecasting model, which projects worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011 (as well as 2012); namely, by providing a “look ahead” scenario for year 2011′s sales forecast range as a function of next month’s (in this case September’s) assumed range of “actual” global semiconductor sales estimates.

The output of this “look ahead” modelling analysis is detailed in the scenario analysis matrix displayed in the table.

In order to facilitate the determination of these “look ahead” forecast numbers, an extended range in assumed Sept. 2011′s “actual” sales is selected a-priori. In this month’s scenario analysis outlook, a Sept. 2011 sales range from a low of $27.028 billion to a high of $33.028 billion, in increments of $0.250 billion, is pre-selected as listed in the first column of the table.

Global semiconductor sales forecast estimates fall: Cowan LRA model

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

The WSTS posted August 2011′s HBR (Historical Billings Report) on its website on Monday, October 4th, 2011, thereby allowing the calculation of the monthly update of the latest global semiconductor sales forecast estimates for 2011 and 2012 via exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting model reflecting August 2011′s monthly sales including any revisions to previous months’ reported sales numbers. According to the WSTS’s August HBR, August’s actual global semiconductor sales came in at $24.216 billion with a corresponding August 3MMA sales of $25.033 billion.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

It should be highlighted that none of the previous seven months (January through July) experienced any sales revisions from last month’s published HBR. Thus, the total YTD cumulative sales through August totaled $198.271 billion.

This represents a 2011 YTD sales growth of 2.2 percent compared to the same time period in 2010 when August 2010′s YTD sales were $193.976 billion. This continues a downward trend in the month-to-month 2011 YTD sales growth numbers since the beginning of the year as shown in the table here.

The Cowan LRA model’s sales forecast estimates for the month of August as determined by last month’s model run were $26.177 billion (actual) and $25.686 billion (3MMA), respectively. Consequently, the model’s August MI (Momentum Indicator) came in at minus 7.5 percent, which ”degraded” from last month’s MI of minus 3.7 percent.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

This indicates (mathematically speaking) that the semiconductor industry’s August actual sales came in much lower than the model’s previous month’s forecasted expectation by $1.961 billion. This implies that 2011′s sales growth could continue to trend downward for the rest of this year relative to this month’s sales growth expectation of 3.9 percent as discussed here.

The key take-aways from comparing the latest forecast estimates vs. the previous month’s projections (as displayed in the table) are highlighted here:

* 2011′s updated global semiconductor sales forecast estimate fell by $3.219 billion to $309.998 billion (from last month’s sales forecast estimate of $313.217).
* Correspondingly, 2011′s sales growth forecast estimate dropped by 1.1 percentage points to 3.9 percent (from last month’s 5.0 percent sales growth forecast estimate).
* September 2011′s actual sales forecast expectation is $31.528 billion, which corresponds to a September 3MMA sales estimate of $26.413 billion assuming no (or very minor) sales revisions to either July or August’s published actual sales compared to August’s just published HBR by the WSTS.
* 2012′s global semicon sales forecast estimate fell by $3.817 billion to $335.627 billion (from last month’s sales forecast estimate of $339.443 billion).
* Correspondingly, 2012′s sales growth forecast estimate dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 8.3 percent (from last month’s 8.4 percent sales growth forecast estimate).

Next month’s Cowan LRA model’s forecast update, which will reflect September 2011′s actual global semiconductor sales, is expected to be available on or about Tuesday, Nov. 8th, 2011 following the posting of the Sept. HBR on the WSTS’s website.

Steve Jobs: Master of the game!

Steve Jobs. Source: Apple.

This morning, I woke up to find the headline staring at me: Steve Jobs has died! RIP, Steve Jobs!

I first had a look at the Apple Mac while at SBP Consultants & Engineers back in 1988. I was pleasantly surprised to find a computer that could do desktop publishing that well! By then, Jobs had gone out of Apple, fired by John Sculley, then Apple’s CEO, sometime in 1985.

Jobs only returned to Apple in 1996, a time when he had floated PIXAR and of course, NeXT — the company that Apple eventually bought and with that, returned Jobs to Apple. The rest, as they say, is history!

First, Jobs, and of course, Apple, brought color to computers, when the iMac line was launched. I remember seeing the entire line in Hong Kong! The iMacs were followed by the ‘now very well known’ iBook!

Next, Jobs focused on the music industry, and that led to the creation of the revolutionary iPod, as well as the Apple Store. I remember several suppliers in Hong Kong and China telling me that they were grateful to Apple for ‘rewriting the musical devices history’ with the iPod. Those suppliers were very much in business, and continue to remain so, till today.

And then, the iPhone happened in 2007! The iPhone 4S, launched yesterday, serves as a reminder of Jobs’ vision and strategy. The iPhone caught everyone in the telecom industry napping! Suddenly, there was a rush to produce iPhone clones or iPhone-like phones. Of course, this also hit a major telecom player in a big way!

Today, smartphones are all the rage! But, believe it or not, no one, yes, no one, has actually come close to what Apple and Steve Jobs have managed to do with the iPhone.

The revolutionary iPad, which hit the streets in 2010, literally gave a new lease of life to computing! It also opened a new section – tablets – in front of the computing world. Today, all of the tablets that you get to see from numerous players is only because of Jobs’ and Apple’s magnificient vision!

This August, Jobs stepped down as Apple’s CEO. Who knew that he would pass away to eternity in early October? There is a message on Apple’s site, which I am pasting here:

“Apple has lost a visionary and creative genius, and the world has lost an amazing human being. Those of us who have been fortunate enough to know and work with Steve have lost a dear friend and an inspiring mentor. Steve leaves behind a company that only he could have built, and his spirit will forever be the foundation of Apple.”