Search Results

Keyword: ‘billion’

Global semicon sales to reach $302.02 billion in 2013: Cowan LRA model

February 18, 2013 5 comments

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

With the ‘closing out’ of the final, overall sales result for 2012 by the WSTS, the Cowan LRA model for forecasting global semiconductor sales has been updated to include the full complement of 2012’s monthly sales numbers, thereby incorporating 29 years of historical, global semiconductor (actual) sales numbers as gathered, tracked and published each month by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.

The necessary mathematical computations required to update the complete set of linear regression parameters embedded in the Cowan LRA forecasting model have been carried out.

The newly derived set of linear regression parameters reflect 29 years (1984 to 2012) of historical global semiconductor sales numbers as a basis of predicting future quarterly and full year sales and sale growth forecast expectations by exercising the Cowan LRA model.

Therefore, the table given here summarizes the model’s latest 2013 sales and sales growth expectations as a function of the model’s range (low, expected and high) for January 2013′s sales forecast estimates as generated by the newly, updated model’s linear regression parameters.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

It is estimated that in 2013, the global semiconductor industry is likely to reach $302.022 billion, a growth of 3.6 percent.

Note that next month’s forecast will be based on January 2013’s actual sales number, which is anticipated to be released by the WSTS at the end of the first week in March. Once posted, the model will be rerun to yield the quarterly and full year sales, and sales growth expectations for 2013, respectively.

MEMS to be $21 billion market by 2017: Yole

October 8, 2012 Comments off

MEMS update: Source: Yole

MEMS update: Source: Yole

The MEMS market is on a growing curve again, and many changes are happening on the technical side, business model side and supply chain side. MEMS will continue to see steady, sustainable double digit growth for the next six years: 13 per cent CAGR in revenues and 20 per cent CAGR in units. MEMS will grow to $21 billion market by 2017.

Every year brings new business to the MEMS landscape. Combo sensors are coming. The MEMS market is still very fragmented, with a number of high volume MEMS applications still limited today. However, a whole range of new MEMS devices has now reached the market and new ‘emerging MEMS’ devices are coming..

MEMS applicable to mobile devices (RF MEMS switches, oscillators, auto-focus) have the possibility to ramp up to large volumes quickly. Growth will also come from existing sensors that are expanding into new market spaces: e.g. pressure sensors for consumer.

Consumer/mobile applications are driving about 50 per cent of the total volume. Telecom and medical applications will grow faster with expected CAGR of ~20 per cent in the next five years. Industrial MEMS applications represent significant opportunities with grow of ~13 per cent likely.

MEMS in 2011
Four devices represented over 50 per cent of units shipped in 2011. Microphones, accelerometers, gyroscopes and magnetometers represented more than 50 per cent of MEMS units shipped in 2011.

Accelerometer, gyroscope and electronic compass growth is coming from the detection of movement, which is reaching every applications, from mobile phones to pacemakers to smart munitions. Microphone has found a sweet spot in the mobile phone business, replacing the electric condenser type of microphones.

All these devices are about to be combined with other sensors and electronic functions/processing in order to add more value. Multi-microphone arrays with noise cancellation functionalities are now a new feature in smartphones. Accelerometers plus gyroscopes plus electronic compasses are being combined (in a SiP package, in the near future, in silicon SoC) to bring a higher level of functionality at even lower costs.

Invensense achieved the same MEMS size when moving from 2-axis to 3-axis gyros (ITG-3200). As for MEMS accelerometer roadmap, new packaging concepts (such as metal-to-metal wafer bonding, WLP/TSV technologies) are driving the ‘Moore law’ of the MEMS technology roadmap.

In an example of STM accelerometer using TSV technology, by removing the area reserved for I/O pads, the TSV process allows the MEMS die area to be shrinked by 25 per cent compared to the standard accelerometer. However, TSV adds major manufacturing changes that increase the final wafer cost by about $90. The wafer extra cost cumulated with a shrinked MEMS die, makes the final die cost still competitive.

In the 2011 MEMS ranking of the top 30 players, TI, STMicro, HP and Bosch are the ‘big 4′ players with annual revenues of > $700 million. The top 30 accounts for ~80 per cent of total MEMS market. More than 25 players generate annual revenues from $50 million to $300 million.

As for 2011 MEMS foundry rankings, some MEMS IDMs have been successful in developing a MEMS foundry business beyond internal needs. STMicro is by far the no. 1 with key customers such as HP (related to ink-jet MEMS manufacturing). Sony has Knowles’ silicon microphone wafer manufacturing business.

Pure play MEMS foundries include Silex (SW), DALSA (CA), apm (TW), IMT (US), tMt (TW) and DNP (JP). CMOS wafer foundries are entering the MEMS manufacturing space with TSMC (TW), umc (TW), Globalfoundries (SG), SMIC (CH), X-Fab (GE) and Semefab (UK).

The 2011 MEMS foundry services accounted for ~6 per cent of the total MEMS market ($623 million). In 2010, the ratio was similar. Now, there are more and more fabless companies in the MEMS space! There are over 70 fabless MEMS companies.
Read more…

Global semiconductor sales worth $298 billion in 2012?

September 15, 2012 Comments off

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

According to the WSTS’s July (posted Sept. 8th, 2012) actual global semiconductor sales of $23.977 billion, the latest monthly forecast expectation for 2012’s total global semiconductor sales came in at $298 billion as calculated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

This latest update to the 2012 sales forecast corresponds to a year-over-year sales growth expectation of minus 0.5 percent, which improved slightly from the previous month’s year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.85 percent. It is also lower than the joint WSTS/SIA Spring 2012 sales growth forecast of 0.45 percent, which corresponds to a global sales forecast estimate of $300.9 billion. Therefore, the model’s latest monthly forecast output (based on the just announced July 2012’s actual sales) continues to indicate negative sales growth for 2012 compared to 2011 for the second month in a row.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

The model’s previous month’s forecast expectation for July’s actual sales was $23.16 billion as shown in the first table. This forecasted sales number (generated last month) was lower than the actual July published sales of $23.98 billion (larger by $0.82 billion or up 3.5 percent).

This results in an M.I. (Momentum Indicator) of plus 3.5 implying that the sales growth trend will be “marginally” up (that is, slightly less negative) over the near term forecast horizon.

Inserting July’s just published actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model also produces the latest updated sales and sales growth forecast expectations for the remaining two quarters of 2012 as well as the first two quarters of 2013.

These results are summarized in the first table. Also provided in the table are the previous month’s sales and sales growth forecast numbers, which were derived last month, thereby providing sequential monthly forecast estimate comparisons.

As displayed in the first table, the latest projected full year 2012 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate increased to $298 billion from last month’s sales forecast expectation of $297 billion – an increase of $1 billion. Correspondingly, the updated 2012 sales growth forecast estimate improved to minus 0.5 percent from last month’s sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.85 percent – a decrease of 0.35 percentage points, but still residing in negative territory.
Read more…

Global semicon sales worth $299.5 billion in 2011!

February 6, 2012 2 comments

Source: Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), USA.

Source: The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), USA.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that the worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011 reached a record $299.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percent from the $298.3 billion recorded in 2010. While this is a very small increase over 2010, the SIA has said this is a record! Perhaps, it is, as the $300 billion mark is about to be breached!!

The SIA, in its release, has talked about the challenges that the global industry has had to face in 2011, notably, the tsunami in Japan, and the floods in Thailand. That the global semiconductor industry has still managed to reach nearly $300 billion is a feat in itself! And, as usual, Asia does continue to play a relatively large role.

According to the SIA, the optoelectronic, sensor and actuator, and microprocessor markets have showed solid year over year growth.  In fact, sensors and actuators are said to have showed the highest year over year growth at 15.5 percent to $8 billion in 2011. Likewise, MOS microprocessors have also shown commendable growth.

So, what does 2012 hold for the global semiconductor industry?

Last November, IC Insights had said that although low single-digit growth is forecast for the total semiconductor market in 2011, several companies are likely to register results that are quite different. There have already been some forecasts since then.  IHS iSuppli has said that the semiconductor industry revenue is likely to reach $323.2 billion in 2012.  As of now,  the global semiconductor sales has been forecast at $329.4 billion for 2012 by Mike Cowan, while the Singapore Semiconductor Industry Association (SSIA) has a figure of $313 billion for 2012. Keep your eyes wide open!

2012’s semicon sales and sales growth estimates $325.5 billion and 6.9 percent!

December 20, 2011 2 comments

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

We are into the back end of 2011 with just two more months of global semiconductor sales numbers yet to be announced (by WSTS) in order to “wrap up” and finalize year 2011’s official, overall semi sales result and the corresponding final sales growth compared to last year “cast in concrete.”

Various industry watchers’ sales growth forecast expectations for 2011 are presently ranging from low positive single digits to low negative single digits, including the latest Cowan LRA Model’s sales growth forecast estimate of 2.1 percent based upon WSTS’s October 2011 sales results published at the beginning of December.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Therefore, the soon to be released — expected on or about Jan. 5th, 2012 — Nov. 2011 sales number, in conjunction with exercising the Cowan LRA Model’s “look ahead” analysis capability, can definitely shed more insight into the 2011’s final expected sales and sales growth forecast estimates, as well as the updated 2012 forecast numbers.

Consequently, the “look ahead” scenario analysis summary table shown here  nets out the “look-ahead” analysis derived high-level forecast expectations.

Analysis of global semicon industry
It’s that time of the month again; namely, time for a “preview” of next month’s global semiconductor sales forecast updates for both 2011 and 2012 as gleamed by exercising the “look ahead” forecasting capability of the Cowan LRA forecast model “operating on” November’s ‘actual’ sales expectation range.

The soon to-be-announced November 2011 global semiconductor sales result should be relevant in determining the forecasted sales growth expectation for the full year of 2011. In particular, one can ascertain whether 2011 will exhibit positive yearly sales growth for the industry or will it turn negative as a number of market researchers have recently forecasted based upon downward fourth quarter sales guidance updates recently announced by many semiconductor suppliers. Read more…

Global semicon sales forecast at $329.4 billion for 2012!

November 25, 2011 5 comments

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

It’s that time of the month again; namely, time for an “early showing” of next month’s global semiconductor sales forecast updates for both 2011 and 2012 as gleamed from October’s “actual” sales expectation range via exercising the ‘look ahead’ forecasting capability of the Cowan LRA forecast model.

The soon to-be-announced October 2011 global semiconductor sales result should, therefore, be influential in determining the sales growth expectation for the full year of 2011. In particular, one can ascertain whether 2011 will exhibit positive yearly sales growth for the industry or will it turn negative as a number of market researchers have recently forecasted based upon downward fourth quarter sales guidance recently announced by many semiconductor suppliers in reporting their third quarter financials?

Therefore, presented here is a “snap shot” of 2011’s global semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast prospects as a function of October’s possible “actual” sales forecast estimate range as derived via the Cowan LRA forecasting model that I have developed and previously shared. Moreover, the model has been extended in order to include a view of what 2012?s sales growth prospects might look like thereby providing a five quarter look ahead horizon that allows the model to also capture the four quarters of 2012.

It should be mentioned that October 2011’s “actual” global semiconductor sales number is scheduled to be released by the WSTS via its monthly HBR (Historical Billings Report) on or about Monday, December 5th.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

In advance of the WSTS’s release of its October HBR, here’s a monthly “what if” outlook analysis. The analysis leverages the Cowan LRA forecasting model, which projects worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011 (as well as 2012) by providing a “look ahead” scenario for year 2011’s sales forecast range as a function of October’s assumed range of “actual” global semiconductor sales estimates.

The output of this “look ahead” modeling analysis is detailed in the scenario analysis matrix displayed in the table below. A discussion of the model’s results is provided in the paragraphs immediately following the table.

To facilitate the determination of these “look ahead” forecast numbers, an extended range in assumed October 2011’s “actual” sales is selected a-priori. In this month’s scenario analysis outlook, an Oct. 2011 sales range from a low of $23.948 billion to a high of $26.948 billion, in increments of $0.250 billion, is pre-selected as listed in first column of the table. Read more…

Global semiconductor market will be $313 billion in 2012: SSIA

November 17, 2011 27 comments

A view of SSIA's Summit.

A view of Singapore Semiconductor Industry Association's Summit.

The Singapore Semiconductor Industry Association (SSIA) recently held its 2011 Summit. Estimating the global semiconductor industry in 2012, the SSIA agrees with Future Horizon forecasts stating that 2011-Q3 will be flat (+/- 1 percent), and that 2011-Q4 will show a slight decline (-1/-2 percent) with total year growth of 1 percent as compared with growth of 2010 +32 percent.

Pasquale Pistorio, honorary chairman, ST Microelectronics, who spoke at SSIA’s Summit, described expectations for 2012 as including a low first half, followed growth of +8 percent and 2013 growth of 22 percent. “The industry will reach the elusive $400 billion mark in 2013,” noted Pistorio. The global semiconductor market will be $313 billion in 2012.

Meeting semicon industry challenges
According to the SSIA, the semiconductor industry challenges going forward include:
* Industry growth in an uncertain market: The semiconductor industry is cyclical – and this poses challenges. “Excessive investment in inventory during expansion or economic slowdown, or both, has been the way of life in this industry,” said Pistorio. “The semiconductor industry is characterized by big market swings.  In 2001, the swing was +69 percent. Now is a new swing. This is the first correction of this decade. This is the nature of the industry – this is business as usual.”

* Growth of emerging semiconductor companies: With semiconductor startups declining in number and VCs becoming more and more hesitant to invest funds in getting them off the ground, a different approach is needed to enable these innovative entrepreneurs to gain a foothold in the semiconductor market.

To encourage growth in this sector, SSIA will become involved in a semiconductor-focused company incubator to guide the creation of growth of Singapore- based fabless semiconductor startups; create an SSIA emerging company board with a focus  on better meeting the needs of emerging semiconductor companies and facilitating coordination with established Singapore semiconductor companies; and coordinate with Singapore government agencies and the Economic Development Board on infrastructure support initiatives for emerging semiconductor companies.

Asian semiconductor industry worth $177 billion in 2012
Estimating the Asian semiconductor industry in 2012, the SSIA said that Singapore plays a significant role in the overall. The Asian semiconductor market is expected to be $177 billion in 2012. According to SSIA projections, the 2012 Singapore semiconductor market will be approximately $44.6 billion.

Year 2010 was a record year for Singapore’s electronics industry. The industry attained historic highs in both manufacturing output and value-added. Electronics manufacturing output grew 26.9 percent in 2010 to reach S$89.9 billion, far surpassing the global industry growth of 9.3 percent. The electronics industry was also the largest contributor to Singapore’s 2010 GDP from the manufacturing sector, with its share of GDP increasing to 7 percent from 5.7 percent in 2009.

The strong growth of Singapore’s electronics industry was enabled through industry transformation. Over the years, the electronics industry has transformed to manufacture higher value-added products and R&D. This is illustrated through two main sectors – semiconductors and data storage.

Singapore’s semiconductor industry posted a nominal growth of 49.8 percent, outpacing the global semiconductor industry’s 32.5 percent growth in 2010.  As a result, Singapore’s manufacturing output share of global semiconductor revenues increased from 11.2 percent in 2009 to 13.5 percent in 2010.

Updated global semicon sales forecast 2011’s estimate falls $2.74 billion

November 6, 2011 Comments off

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

On Wednesday, Nov. 2nd, 2011, the WSTS posted its Sept. 2011’s HBR (Historical Billings Report) on its website thereby facilitating the calculation of the monthly update for the latest global semi sales forecast estimates for 2011 and 2012 via exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

These latest forecast results reflect September 2011’s actual monthly sales and include revisions to previous months’ reported sales numbers. According to the WSTS’s September HBR, September’s actual global semiconductor sales came in at $29.442 billion with a corresponding September 3MMA sales of $25.764 billion.

It should be highlighted that two of the previous eight months (January through August), namely July and August, experienced very minor sales revisions from last month’s published HBR. Thus, the YTD cumulative global semiconductor sales through September totaled $227.852 billion.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

This represents a 2011 YTD sales growth of 2.2 percent compared to the same time period in 2010 when September 2010’s YTD sales were $222.853 billion. This continues a downward trend in the month-to-month 2011 YTD sales growth numbers from the beginning of the year as shown in the table here.

The Cowan LRA model’s sales forecast estimates for the month of September as determined by last month’s model run were $31.528 billion (actual) and $26.413 billion (3MMA), respectively. Consequently, the model’s September sales MI (Momentum Indicator) came in at minus 6.2 percent which marginally improved from last month’s sales MI of minus 7.5 percent.

This indicates (mathematically speaking) that semicon industry’s Sept.’s actual sales came in $1.959 billion lower than the model’s previous month’s forecasted expectation. This suggests 2011’s sales growth could continue to trend downward for remainder of this year relative to this month’s 2011 sales growth expectation of 3 percent as discussed below. Read more…

2011 sales estimate could vary between $303.8 billion and $311.9 billion: Cowan LRA model

October 20, 2011 4 comments

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

It’s that time of the month again; namely, time for an advanced showing of next month’s global semiconductor sales forecast updates for both 2011 and 2012 as gleamed from September’s “actual” sales expectation range by exercising the “look ahead” forecasting capability of the Cowan LRA forecast model.

September’s upcoming global semiconductor sales result should, therefore, be instrumental in determining the sales growth expectation not only for the third quarter of 2011 but also for the full year of 2011. In particular, one can ascertain whether 2011 will exhibit positive yearly sales growth for the industry or will it turn negative as a number of market researchers have recently forecasted based upon downward third quarter sales guidance recently announced by many semiconductor suppliers?

Therefore, presented here is a “snap shot” of 2011’s global semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast prospects as a function of September’s “actual” sales forecast estimate range as derived via the Cowan LRA forecasting model. Moreover, the model has been extended in order to include a view of what 2012’s sales growth prospects might look like, thereby, providing a six quarter look ahead horizon that allows the model to also capture the four quarters of 2012.

It should be mentioned that September 2011’s “actual” global semiconductor sales number is scheduled to be released by the WSTS via its monthly HBR (Historical Billings Report) on or about Friday, November 4th.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

In advance of the WSTS’s release of its September HBR, here is the monthly outlook analysis leveraging the Cowan LRA forecasting model, which projects worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011 (as well as 2012); namely, by providing a “look ahead” scenario for year 2011’s sales forecast range as a function of next month’s (in this case September’s) assumed range of “actual” global semiconductor sales estimates.

The output of this “look ahead” modelling analysis is detailed in the scenario analysis matrix displayed in the table.

In order to facilitate the determination of these “look ahead” forecast numbers, an extended range in assumed Sept. 2011’s “actual” sales is selected a-priori. In this month’s scenario analysis outlook, a Sept. 2011 sales range from a low of $27.028 billion to a high of $33.028 billion, in increments of $0.250 billion, is pre-selected as listed in the first column of the table. Read more…

More ‘fabless IC billionaires’ in 2010, says IC Insights! Is India listening?

December 22, 2010 5 comments

Brilliant! There’s no other word to describe the first part of this headline!

As per IC Insights’ forecast of 2010 billion-dollar fabless IC suppliers, excerpted from a ranking of top 50 fabless IC suppliers in its ‘ 2011 edition of The McClean Report’, as many as 13 fabless IC suppliers are tipped to cross the $1-billion mark in sales in 2010! As per IC Insights, this is a significant step up — from 10 companies in 2009 and eight in 2008.

Leading fabless IC suppliers. Source: IC Insight, USA.

Leading fabless IC suppliers. Source: IC Insight, USA.

Just sit back and admire this table. There are nine firms from the US — Qualcomm, Broadcom, AMD, Marvell, Nvidia, Xilinx, Altera, LSI and Avago, three from Taiwan — MediaTek, Novatek and MStar, while ST-Ericsson is Europe’s lone representation in this stellar list.

In this august club of IC billionaires, no surprises, but Qualcomm retains the top place for the third consecutive year. Broadcom moves up a place. AMD should become the world’s third largest player.

Broadcom at 53 percent, Marvell at 34 percent, Xilinx at 39 percent, Altera at 63 percent, Avago and Novatek at 40 percent each are top performers. However, MStar of Taiwan steals the show with an estimated 75 percent growth in 2010.

Qualcomm, Nvidia and LSI have performed well, especially  the last two – coming pff a difficult 2009. Taiwan’s MediaTek has seen the biggest slip — down to 3 percent in 2010 from 22 percent in 2009.

There is no representation from Japan in the fabless IC billionaires club. IC Insights has indicated that the fabless/foundry hasn’t caught on in Japan and is unlikely to do so in the near future. However, Taiwan and China based firms should sooner or later find their way into this club.

I will now come to India! Read more…

%d bloggers like this: