The India Semiconductor Association (ISA) has released a sector report on the opportunities in the Indian medical electronics field, titled: “Current status and potential for medical electronics in India”, 2010, at the Narayana Hrudayalaya campus in Bangalore.
The Indian healthcare market (FY ’09) has been valued at Rs. 300,000 crores ($63 billion). Of this, healthcare delivery makes up 72 percent, pharmaceutical industry 20 percent, health insurance 5 percent, medical equipment 1.4 percent, medical consumables 1.1 percent, and medical IT 0.2 percent, respectively.
Medical electronics has been valued at Rs. 3,850 crores ($820 million) of the overall Indian healthcare market of Rs. 300,000 crores. The Indian medical equipment market is estimated to grow at around 17 percent CAGR over the next five years and reach about Rs. 9,735 crores ($2.075 billion).
As per the ISA report, the Indian healthcare industry currently contributes to 5.6 percent of GDP, which is estimated to increase to 8-8.5 percent in FY 13.
The domestic market for medical equipment currently stands at Rs. 3,850 crores ($820 million). Annually, medical equipment worth Rs. 2,450 crores ($520 million) is manufactured in India, out of which Rs. 350 crore ($75 million) is exported.
Growth of the medical equipment market is directly proportionate to growth of healthcare delivery, which was Rs. 216,000 crores ($45.36 billion) in 2009 Siemens, Wipro GE and Philips are leaders in the space with 18 percent, 17 percent and 10 percent share, respectively. However, 45 percent of the market is addressed by smaller, niche domestic players.
The report was released by Dr. Devi Prasad Shetty, CMD, Narayana Hrudayalaya, in the presence of Dr. Bobby Mitra, ISA chairman, Poornima Shenoy, ISA president and Vivek Sharma, convener of the ISA Medical Electronics Segment. Read more…
The worldwide semiconductor market for portable media players (PMPs) is poised to drop significantly from $7.5 billion in 2008 to $4.6 billion in 2013, representing a negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -9%, according to a new forecast from IDC.
A mature market, the economic slowdown, growing similarity with mobile phones and mobile Internet devices (MIDs), and inevitable cannibalization all contribute to the shrinking semiconductor opportunity in PMPs. Additionally, PMPs will no longer be the largest market for NAND flash memory.
While revenue for most of the semiconductor components will decline in line with the total decline in PMP unit shipments, wireless connectivity semiconductors will exhibit modest growth, driven by the increase in attach rate for FM, WLAN, and Bluetooth radios.
“As PMPs have grown in capabilities, the dividing line has blurred between multimedia phones and MIDs,” said Ajit Deosthali, research manager for Short Range Wireless Semiconductors at IDC. “Moving forward, one should expect the semiconductor players to focus on the larger multimedia phones and growing opportunity in MIDs.”
IDC’s study, Worldwide Portable Media Player Semiconductor 2009–2013 Forecast provides an analysis of the worldwide semiconductor market for PMPs by device type, from 2009 to 2013.
The study also forecasts the semiconductor bill of materials for audio-only and video-capable PMPs, and the PMP NAND flash revenue and shipments by capacity.
According to Finlay Coville, VP and team leader, NPD Solarbuzz, full year end market PV demand during 2012 reached 29.05 GW. The demand is forecast to increase to 31 GW in 2013. China is expected to replace Germany as the leading market for the first time. The global market is likely to have a CAGR exceeding 15 percent, highlighting long term confidence in global PV adoption levels.
Supply vs. demand overview in 2012
The upstream c-Si module/thin-film panel suppliers produced 30.1 GW of new product in 2012. Combined with inventory levels through the value chain, this provided 31 GW of panels to the downstream channels. 29 GW was used for market demand, while 2 GW went to the downstream inventory.
Demand overview 2013
Year 2013 is shaping up as a 31 GW demand year under the most likely scenario. Over 50 percent of the end market demand is projected to come from China, Germany and North America (USA and Canada). 2013 will be a transition year for the emerging PV territories. Both the Middle East and Africa and Emerging Asia will likely reach 1 GW.
PV demand in 2012 accounted for approximately 30 percent of all PV installed globally. The industry growth in 2012 is positive, but set against a backdrop of an industry that had been accustomed to year-on-year growth often exceeding 100 percent. The industry is forecast to return to double digit growth.
PV scenario forecasting continies to show divergent outcomes in 2017. A high market demand scenario assumes a strong economic environment and aggressive PV policies by way of direct incentives and lower regulatory hurdles.
Five-year cumulative demand by geography
Cumulatively, global PV demand is forecast to exceed 230 GW over the five year period to 2017. China is forecast to install 51 GW accounting for over 20 percent. Europe will continue to offer strong regional PV market. North America and Japan will provide over 61 GW of demand. Emerging markets are projected to create over 25 GW of PV demand, more than 10 percent of the cumulative total to 2017.
By application segment, the ground-mount segment will remain the single largest segment over the five years. Residential and non-residential (commercial) segments will continue to be characterized by specific end-user requirements, different supply channels and routes-to-market for upstream suppliers.
The PV industry was configured to supply over 45 GW in 2012. The industry is likely to be in an over-capacity mode in 2013, with balanced supply/demand levels restored from 2015. Market share aspirations remain a key driver for PV manufacturers. During 2013 and 2014, the capacity taken offline is likely to be more than compensated for by newly ramped capacity.
With multi-domain c-Si module production, most panels had efficiencies in the 13-16 percent band during 2012. High efficiency concepts are not likely to strongly influence the module efficiency landscape during 2013 or 2014. If high efficiency cell types gain traction, the share of modules with efficiencies above 16 percent will increase.
In 2012, a wide range of efficiencies were produced, but with levels that do not compete with c-Si modules for space-constrained applications. The range of panels available in the 12-14 percent band is likely to grow strongly from 2015 as leading suppliers benefit from process improvements. Panels below 10 percent efficiency will become obsolete.
Despite end market growth expected, revenues available to each part of the value-chain will see strong declines Y/Y in 2013. This is due to the ASPs declining at a faster rate than the end-market demand growth, within a strong overcapacity environment. Revenues are also unlikely to recover for each value-chain segment until the 2016-2017 period.
What’s with prices?
2012 was the fourth year in a row that c-Si module prices declined and was the largest Y/Y decline. As capacity throughout the PV chain has increased, the oversupply has put further pressure on the ASPs. Declines in pricing occurred further upstream, at the poly, wafer and cell segments.
Tracking SAM revenues fron selling modules into downstream channels is becoming less important to the PV industry. as a number of module suppliers take on EPC and project developer roles.
PV equipment spending
As for PV equipment spending, the most likely forecast sees capacity being added by a select gtoup of tier 1 c-Si makers during 2014. The next cyclic downturn is forecast for 2016-2017. This assumes excess capacity is added in the next upturn.
If we look at the current scope of trade disputes, there are five major markets — EU, USA, India, Canada, China — investigating products being imported, with China featuring in most cases. Most disputes are being pursued by the internal bodies, but several have been referred to the WTO for review. A growing number of emerging PV regions already have domestic content incentives.
PV demand was 29 GW in 2012, and 2013 is forecast to tip 31 GW. 230 GW of new PV demand is forecast between 2013-2017, adding to the 100 GW at the end of 2012. Eighty percent of PV demand in 2013-2017 will come from the top 10 end markets.
At a MEMS Industry Group seminar in Orlando, US, Alexander Govyadinov, lead technologist, Hewlett-Packard Printing & Technology Development Organization said microfluidics looks at the movement of small amounts of fluids through microchannels.
The current microfluidic applications include pharmaceutical and life science research, clinical and veterinary diagnostics, human point-of-care, analytical devices, environment and industrial testing, and inhalers, micropumps and microneedles.
The microfluidic segment has been growing at 20 percent CAGR. By 2016, the $4.7 billion market size refers to the over 1 billion microfluidic chips and substrates. The GM for synthetic biology reached $1 billion in 2012.
Every fluidic system needs a pump. Although external pumps are commonly used, there is lack of simple, cheap and easy-to-integrate mcro-pumps.
There is passive capillary pump operation using capillaty retention valve (CRV). In a capillary-driven microfluidic device the chip is composed of microfluidic functional elements. There are rotary pumps as well. Rotating gears can be hard to integrate and require strong external actuators. Mostly, external pumps are available. There are pneumatic/membrane micropumps as well as external piezo pumps and active pumps.
In a thermal inkjet (TIJ), the voltage pulse heats the resistor and boils the fluid. Once, the droplet has been ejected, the chamber is refilled by capillary forces. HP has an inertial pump for microfluidics. There exists a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) inertial pump model. An optimal resistor location is available. There are 2mmx512 pump-channel arrays.
Vison for future micropump applications include generic fluidic network with reversible pumps. Pumps’ densities can be up to 1000 per inch2. There are concepts such as polymerase chain reactor and u-calorimeter total analysis system.
Microfluidics is a growing field. Inertial pump is a new way to move fluids through microchannels.
SiC is implemented in several power systems and is gaining momentum and credibility.
Yole Developpement stays convinced that the most pertinent market for SiC lands in high and very high voltage (more than 1.2kV), where applications are less cost-driven and where few incumbent technologies can’t compete in performance. This transition is on its way as several device/module makers have already planned such products at short term.
Even though EV/HEV skips SiC, the industry could expand among other apps. The only question remains: Is there enough business to make so many contenders live decently? Probably, yes, as green-techs are expanding fast, strongly requesting SiC. Newcomers should carefully manage strategy and properly size capex according to the market size.
Power electronics industry outlook
Electronics systems were worth $122 billion in 2012, and will likely grow to $144 billion by 2020 at a CAGR of 1.9 percent. Power inverters will grow from $41 billion in 2012 to over $70 billion by 2020 at a CAGR of 7.2 percent. Semiconductor power devices (discretes and modules) will grow from $12.5 billion in 2012 to $21.9 billion by 2020 at a CAGR of 7.9 percent. Power wafers will grow $912 million in 2012 to $1.3 billion by 2020 at a CAGR of 5.6 percent.
Looking at the power electronics market in 2012 by application and the main expectations to 2015, computer and office will account for 25 percent, industry and energy 24 percent, consumer electronics 18 percent, automotive and transport 17 percent, telecom 7 percent and others 9 percent.
The main trends expected for 2013-2015 are:
* Significant increase of automotive sector following EV and HEV ramp-up.
* Renewable energies and smart-grid implementation will drive industry sector ramp-up.
* Steady erosion of consumer segment due to pressure on price (however, volumes (units) will keep on increase).
The 2011 power devices sales by region reveals that overall, Asia is still the landing-field for more than 65 percent of power products. Most of the integrators are located in China, Japan or Korea. Europe is very dynamic as well with top players in traction, grid, PV inverter, motor control, etc. Asia leads with 39 percent, followed by Japan with 27 percent, Europe with 21 percent and North America with 13 percent.
The 2011 revenues by company/headquarter locations reveals that the big-names of the power electronics industry are historically from Japan. Nine companies of the top-20 are Japanese. There are very few power manufacturers in Asia except in Japan. Europe and US are sharing four of the top five companies. Japan leads with 42 percent, followed by Europe and North America with 28 percent each, respectively, and Asia with 2 percent.
Looking at the TAM comparison for SiC (and GaN), very high voltage, high voltage of 2kV and medium voltage of 1.2kV appear as a more comfortable area for SiC. The apps are less cost-driven and SiC added value is obvious. Low voltage from 0-900V is providing strong competition with traditional silicon technologies, SJ MOSFET and GaN. There are cost-driven apps.
Seagate Technology has announced the Wireless Plus and Central. Futoshi Nizuma, executive director of sales, Japan, South Asia, ASEAN and NZ, said that 2013 is an evolutionary year in storage.
PC growth is flat in mature markets (US/EMEA) as consumer technology choices grow and dollars are competed for. The mobile revolution is in full swing with smartphones, tablets and eReaders becoming ubiquitous. Digital storage usage is more complex with multiple devices, multiple users and anywhere access.
PC/notebooks remain the consumer digital hub, but the replacement cycle is getting longer. The global trend has been slightly up due to China growth. Mobile adoption positively impacts the storage ecosystem. Mobile devices are used in the home and on the road. 2013 is an inflection point. Mobile devices will have a higher installed base than all PCs.
Tablet shipments will increase 54 percent from 2012 to 2013 and smartphones will be in 51 percent of the households. The forecast for mobile data growth is 78 percent CAGR through 2016, reaching 10.8 exabytes. Also, mobile-connected tablets will generate almost as much traffic in 2016 as the entire global mobile network in 2012.
We are also witnessing the emergence of the 3Ms — multi-screen, multi-user and multi-function. In the short term (1-3 years), PCs remain the digital hub in the home, with mobile and connected devices getting added to the ecosystem. In the mid-term (3-6 years) cloud and NAS will be the storage hub for the home while PCs become more of an edge device.
Here, the Seagate Wireless Plus assumes significance. Mobile storage can now be accessed without the web or wires. Also, the Seagate Central allows you to organize and access your digital life.
Now, you can simplify your life and organize all your content, files and documents in one location with automatic and continuous
backup every for computer in the home – wirelessly. You can enjoy your content where you want, when you want. Access your music, movies and docs from computers, game consoles, Smart TVs and other connected devices — all throughout the home. You can now enjoy your media on tablets and smartphones. Browse your universe of files from anywhere, with the free and intuitive Seagate Media App, available for Apple iOS and Android.
If you own a Samsung smart TV you can take advantage of the Seagate Media app (downloadable directly from the Samsung App store), to enjoy easy content browsing with your remote control. Central’s Remote Access service gives you the ability to upload or download content wherever you have Wi-Fi or 3G/4G connection, using a Web browser – it’s like your own personal and secure cloud.
Flip-Chip is a chip packaging technique in which the active area of the chip is ‘flipped over’ facing downward, instead of facing up and bonded to the package leads with wires from the outside edges of the chip.
Any surface area of the Flip-Chip can be used for interconnection, which is typically done through metal bumps. These bumps are soldered onto the package and underfilled with epoxy. The Flip-Chip allows for a large number of interconnects with shorter distances than wire, which greatly reduces inductance.
According to Lionel Cadix, market and technology analyst, Yole Developpement, France, metal bumps can be made of solder (tin, tin-lead or lead-free alloys), copper, gold and copper-tin or Au-tin alloys. The package substrates are epoxy-based (organic substrates), ceramic based, copper based (leadframe substrates), and silicon or glass based.
In the period 2010-2018, Flip-Chip will likely grow at a CAGR of 19 percent. In 2012, laptop and desktop PCs were the top end products using Flip-Chip. It represents 50 percent of the Flip-Chip market by end product with more than 6.2 million of wafer starts. PCs are followed by smart TV and LCD TVs (for LCD drivers), smartphones and high performance computers.
The Flip-Chip market in 2012 is around $20 billion, selling 20 billion units approximately in 12’’ equivalent wafers. Taiwan is so far the no. 1 producer. At least 50 percent of the Flip-Chips devices get into end products. By 2018, the Flip-Chip market should grow to a $35 billion market, selling 68 billion units.
Applications and market focus
Looking at the applications and market focus, Flip-Chip technology is already present in a wide range of application, from high volumes/consumer applications, to low volumes/high end applications. All these applications have their own requirements, specifications and challenges!
Some of these are military and aerospace, medical devices, automobiles, HPC, servers, networks, base stations, etc, in low volumes. It is present in set-top boxes, game stations, smart TVs/displays, desktops/laptops and smartphones/tablets in high volumes. Flip-chip applications are also in imaging, logic 2D SoCs, HB-LEDs, RF, power, analog and mixed-signal, stacked memories, and logic 3D-SiP/SoCs.
In computing applications, for instance, the Intel core i5 is the first MCM combining a 77mm2 CPU together with a 115mm2 GPU in a 37.5mm side package. Solder bumps with a pitch of 185μm are used for the slicon to substrate (1st) interconnect. This MCM configuration is suitable for office applications, with relatively low demanding processing powers. For mobile/wireless applications, there are opportunities for MEMS in smartphones/feature phones. Similarly, Flip-Chip is available for consumer applications.
For microbumping in interposers for FPGA there is a focus on Xilinx Virtex 7 HT. Last year, Xilinx announced a single-layer, multi-chip silicon interposer for its 28nm 7 series FPGAs. Key features include two million logic cells for a high level of computational performance, and high bandwidth, four slice processed in 28 nm, 25 x 31mm, 100 μm thick silicon interposer, 45 um pitch microbumps and 10 μm TSV, and 35 x 35 mm BGA with 180 μm pitch C4 bumps.
Even if the infrastructure had been ready for full 3D stacking, the 2.5D Interposer would still have been the right choice for FPGAs since the ’10,000 routing connections’ would have used up valuable chip area, making the chip slices larger and more costly than they are now. Virtex 7 HT will consist of three FPGA slices and two 28 gbps SerDes chips on an Interposer capable of operating at 2.8 Tb/sec.
Sensor fusion encompasses hardware and software elements. There can be many data sources, such as MEMS. non-MEMS, etc.
The obvious question: why sensor fusion? Tony Massimini, chief of technology, Semico Research Corp., USA, said that it is useful for power savings, and the initial reason was to improve accuracy and reliability of inertial measurement units (IMUs, etc. If we look at the progression of sensors to sensor fusion, there have been simple interrupts such as screen orientation, tap detection, fall detection, and so on. IMUs are available for location-based services (LBS) and navigation, and IMUs are available and other data sources, etc.
Senosr fusion enhances user experience with portable devices. The growth is driven by smartphones. Competing devices will add more features to keep up with smartphones such as tablets, notebooks (ultraportables). Key growth markets today will provide basis for future end use markets (see graph: systems with sensor fusion). The market will likely grow at CAGR of 58.8 percent till 2016.
New end use markets and applications include areas such as gaming, HUD (heads-up display), sports, health and fitness, personal navigation, personal medical, context awareness, voice recognition, visual recognition, augmented reality and automation.
Sensor fusion is used for enhancing the user experience. For instance, add data to 3D axes frame of reference. Sensor fusion offers always ON and low latency. You can also connect to external sensors — wearable for health and fitness. Life tagging is possible too, e.g. photo and video library for context aware services. Next, there is improved security with biometrics.
Summarizing the sensor fusion market, the MEMS sensor ASPs continue to erode. There are an increasing number of sensors. There are improved MEMS sensors, including hardware accelerators. There is interaction with cloud for data. It also enables application innovations. Finally, there are new end use markets.
How will the global semiconductor industry perform in 2013? After a contrasting spell of predictions for 2012, I see no change in 2013! So, what’s the answer to the million-dollar question posed as my headline?
After a disappointing and challenging 2012, global semiconductor executives believe that the worst is nearly behind them, and they are making investments to position their companies for a sustained, broad-based, multi-year recovery in 2013, as per a KPMG global semiconductor survey.
On Feb. 3, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that worldwide semiconductor sales for 2012 reached $291.6 billion, the industry’s third-highest yearly total, ever but a decrease of 2.7 percent from the record total of $299.5 billion set in 2011. Total sales for the year narrowly beat expectations from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization’s industry forecast.
The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) estimated that the global semiconductor market in 2012 will be $290 billion, down 3.2 percent from 2011, followed by a recovery of positive 4.5 percent growth to $303 billion in 2013.
The worldwide semiconductor revenue is projected to total $311 billion in 2013, a 4.5 percent increase from 2012 revenue, according to Gartner Inc. The worldwide semiconductor revenue totaled $298 billion in 2012, a 3 percent decline from 2011 revenue of $307 billion, according to preliminary results by Gartner.
The outlook for the global semiconductor industry in 2013 will likely be 7.9 percent, according to Future Horizons. It means, the industry will likely grow to $315.4 billion in 2013. The Cowan LRA foreasting model put out the following sales and year-on-year sales growth numbers for 2012 and 2013: $292.992 billion (-2.2 percent) and $309.244 billion (+5.5 percent), respectively.
Databeans expects 2013 will see a rebound, with the semiconductor industry growing by 7 percent from 2012 totals to reach $313.04 billion. IDC forecasted that the worldwide semiconductor revenues will grow 4.9 percent and reach $319 billion in 2013.
IHS iSuppli claimed that the semiconductor silicon revenue will close 2012 at $303 billion, down 2.3 percent from $310 billion in 2011. The projected decline comes in contrast to the 1.3 percent gain made last year.
IC Insights forecasted 6 percent IC unit growth for 2013 based on expectations of global GDP to rise to 3.2 percent. According to IC
Insights, in 2017, China is expected to represent 38 percent of the worldwide IC market, up from 23 percent, 10 years earlier in 2007. Does this mean the USA and Europe are loosing their sheen?
The global semiconductor industry may record only 1.5 percent growth In 2013, as per The Infornation Network. There is, however, the possibility for a snap-back in revenues for 2013, irrespective of macroeconomic factors, such as what occurred in 2010.
Over the next three years, industry analysts estimate the global industry will grow approximately 6 percent 2013-2016 CAGR, according to Somshubro Pal Choudhury, managing director, Analog Devices India Pvt. Ltd.
Late 2012, I was speaking with Dr. Wally Rhines, chairman and CEO, Mentor Graphics. He said: “After almost no growth in 2012, most of the analysts are expecting improvement in semiconductor market growth in the coming year. Currently, the analyst forecasts for the semiconductor industry in 2013 range from 4.2 percent on the low side to 16.6 percent on the high side, with most firms coming in between 6 percent and 10 percent. The average of forecasts among the major semiconductor analyst firms is approximately 8.2 percent.”
WSTS also anticipates the world market to grow 5.2 percent to $319 billion in 2014, with healthy mid single digit growth across most of geographical regions and semiconductor product categories, supported by the healthier economy of the world.
Lastly, Forbes said that 2013 will be a turning point for the global semiconductor market.