It is always a pleasure speaking with Dr. Walden (Wally) C. Rhines, chairman and CEO, Mentor Graphics Corp. I met him on the sidelines of the 13th Global Electronics Summit, held at the Chaminade Resort & Spa, Santa Cruz, USA.
Status of global EDA industry
First, I asked Dr. Rhines how the EDA industry was doing. Dr. Rhines said: “The global EDA industry has been doing pretty well. The results have been pretty good for 2012. In general, the EDA industry tends to follow the semiconductor R&D by at least 18 months.”
For the record, the electronic design automation (EDA) industry revenue increased 4.6 percent for Q4 2012 to $1,779.1 million, compared to $1,700.1 million in Q4 2011.
Every region, barring Japan, grew in 2012. The Asia Pacific rim grew the fastest – about 12.5 percent. The Americas was the second fastest region in terms of growth at 7.4 percent, and Europe grew at 6.8 percent. However, Japan decreased by 3 percent in 2012.
In 2012, the segments that have grown the fastest within the EDA industry include PCB design and IP, respectively. The front-end CAE (computer aided engineering) group grew faster than the backend CAE. By product category, CAE grew 9.8 percent. The overall growth for license and maintenance was 7 percent. Among the CAE areas, design entry grew 36 percent and emulation 24 percent, respectively.
DFM also grew 28 percent last year. Overall, PCB grew 7.6 percent, while PCB analysis was 25 percent. IP grew 12.6 percent, while the verification IP grew 60 percent. Formal verification and power analysis grew 16 percent each, respectively. “That’s actually a little faster than how semiconductor R&D is growing,” added Dr. Rhines.
Status of global semicon industry
On the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. Dr. Rhines said: “The global semiconductor industry grew very slowly in 2012. Year 2013 should be better. Revenue was actually consolidated by a lot of consolidations in the wireless industry.”
According to him, smartphones should see further growth. “There are big investments in capacities in the 28nm segment. Folks will likely redesign their products over the next few years,” he said. “A lot of firms are waiting for FinFET to go to 20nm. People who need it for power reduction should benefit.”
“A lot of people are concerned about Japan. We believe that Japan can recover due to the Yen,” he added.
According to Finlay Coville, VP and team leader, NPD Solarbuzz, full year end market PV demand during 2012 reached 29.05 GW. The demand is forecast to increase to 31 GW in 2013. China is expected to replace Germany as the leading market for the first time. The global market is likely to have a CAGR exceeding 15 percent, highlighting long term confidence in global PV adoption levels.
Supply vs. demand overview in 2012
The upstream c-Si module/thin-film panel suppliers produced 30.1 GW of new product in 2012. Combined with inventory levels through the value chain, this provided 31 GW of panels to the downstream channels. 29 GW was used for market demand, while 2 GW went to the downstream inventory.
Demand overview 2013
Year 2013 is shaping up as a 31 GW demand year under the most likely scenario. Over 50 percent of the end market demand is projected to come from China, Germany and North America (USA and Canada). 2013 will be a transition year for the emerging PV territories. Both the Middle East and Africa and Emerging Asia will likely reach 1 GW.
PV demand in 2012 accounted for approximately 30 percent of all PV installed globally. The industry growth in 2012 is positive, but set against a backdrop of an industry that had been accustomed to year-on-year growth often exceeding 100 percent. The industry is forecast to return to double digit growth.
PV scenario forecasting continies to show divergent outcomes in 2017. A high market demand scenario assumes a strong economic environment and aggressive PV policies by way of direct incentives and lower regulatory hurdles.
Five-year cumulative demand by geography
Cumulatively, global PV demand is forecast to exceed 230 GW over the five year period to 2017. China is forecast to install 51 GW accounting for over 20 percent. Europe will continue to offer strong regional PV market. North America and Japan will provide over 61 GW of demand. Emerging markets are projected to create over 25 GW of PV demand, more than 10 percent of the cumulative total to 2017.
By application segment, the ground-mount segment will remain the single largest segment over the five years. Residential and non-residential (commercial) segments will continue to be characterized by specific end-user requirements, different supply channels and routes-to-market for upstream suppliers.
The PV industry was configured to supply over 45 GW in 2012. The industry is likely to be in an over-capacity mode in 2013, with balanced supply/demand levels restored from 2015. Market share aspirations remain a key driver for PV manufacturers. During 2013 and 2014, the capacity taken offline is likely to be more than compensated for by newly ramped capacity.
With multi-domain c-Si module production, most panels had efficiencies in the 13-16 percent band during 2012. High efficiency concepts are not likely to strongly influence the module efficiency landscape during 2013 or 2014. If high efficiency cell types gain traction, the share of modules with efficiencies above 16 percent will increase.
In 2012, a wide range of efficiencies were produced, but with levels that do not compete with c-Si modules for space-constrained applications. The range of panels available in the 12-14 percent band is likely to grow strongly from 2015 as leading suppliers benefit from process improvements. Panels below 10 percent efficiency will become obsolete.
Despite end market growth expected, revenues available to each part of the value-chain will see strong declines Y/Y in 2013. This is due to the ASPs declining at a faster rate than the end-market demand growth, within a strong overcapacity environment. Revenues are also unlikely to recover for each value-chain segment until the 2016-2017 period.
What’s with prices?
2012 was the fourth year in a row that c-Si module prices declined and was the largest Y/Y decline. As capacity throughout the PV chain has increased, the oversupply has put further pressure on the ASPs. Declines in pricing occurred further upstream, at the poly, wafer and cell segments.
Tracking SAM revenues fron selling modules into downstream channels is becoming less important to the PV industry. as a number of module suppliers take on EPC and project developer roles.
PV equipment spending
As for PV equipment spending, the most likely forecast sees capacity being added by a select gtoup of tier 1 c-Si makers during 2014. The next cyclic downturn is forecast for 2016-2017. This assumes excess capacity is added in the next upturn.
If we look at the current scope of trade disputes, there are five major markets — EU, USA, India, Canada, China — investigating products being imported, with China featuring in most cases. Most disputes are being pursued by the internal bodies, but several have been referred to the WTO for review. A growing number of emerging PV regions already have domestic content incentives.
PV demand was 29 GW in 2012, and 2013 is forecast to tip 31 GW. 230 GW of new PV demand is forecast between 2013-2017, adding to the 100 GW at the end of 2012. Eighty percent of PV demand in 2013-2017 will come from the top 10 end markets.
Finlay Colville, vice president, NPD Solarbuzz, USA, recently presented the 10 key trends for the PV industry. According to him, the 10 key trends are:
1. PV demand growth. The industry has been characterized by strong growth rates of 25 percent to >100 percent Y/Y for the past decade. Now, the industry needs to plan for growth at more modest levels.
2. Globalization of PV demand. The emerging regions emerged for PV demand in 2012.
3. China end-market demand in 2013. China is forecast to account for approximately 25 percent global demand in 2013. The emerging demand is confined to a select group of countries across the three emerging regions.
4. Capacity imbalance reset. The nameplate capacity levels at the 60-GW level are often cited. However, the the PV industry currently has an ‘effective’ capacity of 41-42 GW. Therefore, demand needs to exceed 40 GW for proper reset.
5. Competitive shakeout. The top-10 module suppliers by MW for 2012 only comprised 50 percent of the year shipments. Also, a similar pattern is seen for c-Si cell production. We can expect another two years of shakeout on the supply side.
6. Cost and price rationalization. Every segment of the supply side is subject to price/cost pressure: from poly to BoS supply. Even reducing the silicon/nonsilicon costs of modules to 53c/W level by the end of 2013 may still result in negative gross margins.
7. Supply and demand rationalization. The poly suppliers have been operating at reduced utilization since 2H’12.
8. Evolution of PV technology roadmaps. Strong marketshare gains from standard c-Si multi ingot/wafers. The end-markets are driving module efficiencies and power ratings. The alternative growth methods have not gained traction and are being phased out.
9. Capital expenditure cyclic patterns. The PV process equipment suppliers have been impacted severely by overcapacity and overinvestments of 2010 and 2011. There is a strong chance that 2014 will end up as low as 2013. Also, technology-buy cycles don’t exist as yet in the PV industry.
10. Domestic protectionism counter measures. The effects of trade wars may yet have a profound effect on the PV industry into 2014. There will be direct effect of global overinvestment into domestic manufacturing. The other countries have an impact, but China and Europe decisions are key.
In summary, the PV industry is a 30-GW end-market today, and is forecast to grow to the 40-GW level in 2015. Europe demand is declining, but greater number of countries/territories expected to provide new PV demand. Demand in China during 2013 is essential for local suppliers.
The PV industry is capable of producing 12-15 GW per quarter. Supply and demand need a 40-GW+ market to balance. The shakeout phase is proceeding slowly, and will continue for the next two years. Reducing costs are not yet keeping up with price declines. ASP and ISP stabilization period is needed badly.
The end-market demand has become dependent on low ISPs. Also, multi c-Si based modules are dominating the industry. PV equipment suppliers are unlikely to see meaningful new order intake until 2014 or beyond. Finally, trade wars and domestic protectionism measures are crucially dependent on the EU and China decisions in 2013.
How will the global semiconductor industry perform in 2013? After a contrasting spell of predictions for 2012, I see no change in 2013! So, what’s the answer to the million-dollar question posed as my headline?
After a disappointing and challenging 2012, global semiconductor executives believe that the worst is nearly behind them, and they are making investments to position their companies for a sustained, broad-based, multi-year recovery in 2013, as per a KPMG global semiconductor survey.
On Feb. 3, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that worldwide semiconductor sales for 2012 reached $291.6 billion, the industry’s third-highest yearly total, ever but a decrease of 2.7 percent from the record total of $299.5 billion set in 2011. Total sales for the year narrowly beat expectations from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization’s industry forecast.
The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) estimated that the global semiconductor market in 2012 will be $290 billion, down 3.2 percent from 2011, followed by a recovery of positive 4.5 percent growth to $303 billion in 2013.
The worldwide semiconductor revenue is projected to total $311 billion in 2013, a 4.5 percent increase from 2012 revenue, according to Gartner Inc. The worldwide semiconductor revenue totaled $298 billion in 2012, a 3 percent decline from 2011 revenue of $307 billion, according to preliminary results by Gartner.
The outlook for the global semiconductor industry in 2013 will likely be 7.9 percent, according to Future Horizons. It means, the industry will likely grow to $315.4 billion in 2013. The Cowan LRA foreasting model put out the following sales and year-on-year sales growth numbers for 2012 and 2013: $292.992 billion (-2.2 percent) and $309.244 billion (+5.5 percent), respectively.
Databeans expects 2013 will see a rebound, with the semiconductor industry growing by 7 percent from 2012 totals to reach $313.04 billion. IDC forecasted that the worldwide semiconductor revenues will grow 4.9 percent and reach $319 billion in 2013.
IHS iSuppli claimed that the semiconductor silicon revenue will close 2012 at $303 billion, down 2.3 percent from $310 billion in 2011. The projected decline comes in contrast to the 1.3 percent gain made last year.
IC Insights forecasted 6 percent IC unit growth for 2013 based on expectations of global GDP to rise to 3.2 percent. According to IC
Insights, in 2017, China is expected to represent 38 percent of the worldwide IC market, up from 23 percent, 10 years earlier in 2007. Does this mean the USA and Europe are loosing their sheen?
The global semiconductor industry may record only 1.5 percent growth In 2013, as per The Infornation Network. There is, however, the possibility for a snap-back in revenues for 2013, irrespective of macroeconomic factors, such as what occurred in 2010.
Over the next three years, industry analysts estimate the global industry will grow approximately 6 percent 2013-2016 CAGR, according to Somshubro Pal Choudhury, managing director, Analog Devices India Pvt. Ltd.
Late 2012, I was speaking with Dr. Wally Rhines, chairman and CEO, Mentor Graphics. He said: “After almost no growth in 2012, most of the analysts are expecting improvement in semiconductor market growth in the coming year. Currently, the analyst forecasts for the semiconductor industry in 2013 range from 4.2 percent on the low side to 16.6 percent on the high side, with most firms coming in between 6 percent and 10 percent. The average of forecasts among the major semiconductor analyst firms is approximately 8.2 percent.”
WSTS also anticipates the world market to grow 5.2 percent to $319 billion in 2014, with healthy mid single digit growth across most of geographical regions and semiconductor product categories, supported by the healthier economy of the world.
Lastly, Forbes said that 2013 will be a turning point for the global semiconductor market.
According to Malcolm Penn, CEO, Future Horizons, the outlook for the global semiconductor industry in 2013 is likely to be +7.9 percent. This means, the global semiconductor industry will likely grow to $315.4 billion in 2013.
Should this happen, it would be significant, given that this is the third year in a row that the market failed to break the $300 billion barrier! The global semiconductor clocked around $292.3 billion in 2012, as against $299.5 billion In 2011.
I asked Malcolm Penn the rationale behind this. He said, the rationale is exactly the same as that for 2012. There is said to be no change to last year’s fundamental market analyses. That’s not all! There are likely to be exactly the same (economic) downside risks as well.
The unit demand, capacity and ASPs are all ‘positively aligned’. Here, it is advised that one should never underestimate the economy’s capacity to derail the chip market. Even the downside forecast has been to break the $300 billion barrier.
The global chip industry growth is driven by four factors. These are economy, which is on hold due to complete loss of confidence, unit demand, which is back on the 10 percent per annum treadmill (inventory gone), fab capacity, which is currently tight (very), especially at the leading technology edge, and ASPs, which are structurally following the usual ups and downs.
There is a very safe, long-term bet, provided companies execute properly. As it is, most firms don’t, as they are too pre-occupied with chasing short-term targets.
Finally, if the year 2013 does show a recovery, the global semiconductor market will likely go ballistic in 2014.
The CIS and camera module value chain in 2012 was ~$6.6 billion industry, of which ~$2 billion were from design overhead, selling, general and administrative, ~$3 billion from front-end, ~$0.4 billion from optical layers, ~$1.2 billion from BE/packaging, etc., according to Paul Danini, technology and market analyst, Yole Developpment, France.
There is also the camera module assembly and test segment. This segment has the integrated camera module suppliers, and the module assembly and test houses. The CMOS image sensor (CIS) shipments by market is set for a 11 percent CAGR growth from 2012-2017.
There was a $5.8 billion market in 2011 based on an estimated value of the first level packaged device. Samsung with 19 percent was the leader in 2011 revenue share, followed by Omnivision and Sony at 17 percent each, respectively, and Canon and Aptina Imaging at 10 percent each, respectively.
Samsung saw a 200 percent growth in smartphones. Omnivision had 50 percent growth from Apple iPad and iPhone4. Sony has grown with BSI CMOS in mobile phones. Canon pioneered CMOS in DSLR. Aptina Imaging is in high-performance specialty markets, and SETi and Galaxycore are gaining significant market share in Chinese mobile phone market.
There is a two-pronged approach to revenue growth and business strategy — race to volume and market share with CAGR >15 percent, and profit enhancement strategy with single-digit growth. Low price sensors are being offered by Galaxycore, Omnivision, SETi, and so on, while the likes of Sony, Samsung, etc. are plying innovative high-end sensors (>5MP).
A look at the manufacturing environment in 2012 shows 25 different CIS players and 40 separate CMOS image sensor lines globally. The 2011 CIS wafer production by region for 2.5M 8″ eq. wspy was led by Japan at 31 percent, followed by Korea at 27 percent, Taiwan at 24 percent and Europe at 15 percent. From 2013 onward, Japan will maintain its lead while Taïwan and China will increase their share.
What’s going to happen?
So, what’s happening in the final markets? The keys to success are either Chinese and Taïwanese foundries, and simple designs or leading edge R&D such as 3D stacking, BSI, 3D imaging and high dynamic range. And, what’s the minimum requirement? It is 12-inch wafer production and backside illumination. These could be a necessity in the near future in the consumer market.
In the high-end applications, while emerging applications are boosting growth, the competition keeps getting stronger. So, what happens in the high-end market segments? There is an opportunity for CIS players that struggle in the mass consumer market, as the CCD to CMOS shift is accelerating at -16 percent CAGR of CCD sales.
How will 2013 turn out to be for the global semiconductor industry? Will there be growth for the global EDA industry? Importantly, how will the Indian semiconductor industry perform in 2013? I asked Jaswinder Ahuja, corporate VP and MD, Cadence Design Systems India these questions.
Outlook for global semicon industry in 2013
First, how is the outlook for global semiconductor industry in 2013 going to be? Ahuja said: “The long term outlook for the semiconductor industry remains positive, with mobility and cloud computing being the key drivers. The global economy is forecast to grow around 4 percent annually through 2016, according to an April 2012 report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“In its June 2012 report, Gartner predicted growth in electronics and semiconductor industries to outpace that of the world GDP growth, at 5½ percent annually to approach $2 trillion for electronics and 6 percent annually for semiconductors through 2016. So, the semiconductor industry outlook remains very positive overall.
“In the near term, multiple challenges will need to be weathered with respect to the global economic climate, especially in European markets. The JP Morgan/GSA Semiconductor Index of Leading Indicators points to a soft semiconductor industry in 2013. However, there are lot of new products in the mobile and tablet space that are driving demand, such as the iPhone 5, Microsoft Surface, and Samsung Galaxy S III.
“The China semiconductor space is emerging as a key market for semiconductor company revenue, and forecasts predict that it will show rapid annual growth rate. The consolidation and M&A activities that we are seeing in the global semiconductor industry also indicate a positive outlook for the upcoming year.
“In India as well, the semiconductor industry will continue to see growth. The injection of funds and other support outlined in the National Policy on Electronics will provide an impetus to home-grown design and manufacturing, which should start gaining traction in 2013.”
Five trends for 2013
What would be the three or five trends likely to be visible in 2013? Ahuja said Cadence sees five big trends that will drive growth in the near and long term. These are: mobility, application driven design, video, cloud and security.
Probably, the most pervasive change in electronics recently has been mobility. When we talk about mobility, it’s just not about smart phones or tablets, but any kind of device which is mobile. Within the mobile space, software applications help system manufacturers and vendors differentiate themselves and stand apart from the competition. The need to have apps on all kinds of devices is driving rapid growth, as well as placing new demands on EDA companies.
The entertainment industry will be the key driver for video, and as the year progresses, we will continue to see more and more products and solutions introduced to tap into the demand. For the semiconductor industry, video will drive growth both in the end consumer market (mobile platforms) and the enterprise space (networking industry).
In many ways, the backbone to mobility is the cloud. With its network servers and infrastructure, the cloud is what delivers much of the content and value to all of those mobile devices. Statistics show that we need one server for every 600 smart phones and one for every 120 tablets. So there is a big need for data centers which can provide support for all the computing and back-end operations.
Security of data in mobile devices and the cloud will continue to be a challenge in the near future. There will be renewed calls to develop products that can protect critical infrastructure and sensitive information from security breaches.
There are more available solutions than ever in power devices, according to Alexandre Avron, market and technology analyst, Yole Développement. The landscape is moving, and its moving quite fast, from every region of the world.
There are many opportunities for power device manufacturers. This is the time for strong strategic planning and making the best choices. He was speaking at a seminar on the power semiconductor devices industry, in Lyon, France.
IGBTs and SJ MOSFETs
Silicon is not dead and will still live for a long time. Standard device design are slowly disappearing (planar IGBT, planar MOSFET). IGBT and SJ MOS are highly mature technologies. Rules of competition are evolving.
Historic players need to keep on innovating. New entrants have a different business model: there are more and more foundries, with fab-less and fab-light players. IGBT is still a key asset: master and secure IGBT supply is necessary for system makers. SJ MOSFETS will be used in more and more systems, taking market shares to planar MOSFET.
About SiC and GaN, there is still a big question mark: Where and when? With time, it is becoming clearer. SiC will target medium and high power. From our point of view, medium power (1200V base) is a mean to arrive to high power (+3.3kV). R&D has to go through this to reach higher voltage. The main issue is still on current ratings (having a high impact on cost).
GaN will target low and medium power, and will probably allow extraordinary power supplies designs (Tiny supplies, very high frequency systems). It is almost ready for 600V, but not yet at 1200V. It leaves room for SiC to develop and expand. Major players are involved on both fields — SiC and GaN. They need to be present on both domains, as there will be an overlap, but the split is unclear: we will probably experience a very fine segmentation, not only by voltage or current, but also by frequency, ruggedness, system size, temperature of operation or maybe culture or history.
SiC is now here. First full SiC PV inverters are available. First field tests for SiC in rail traction is ongoing. GaN is under qualification. According to the most advanced players, 600V GaN devices samples are tested by system makers.