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Global semicon sales to grow 6.6 percent in 2013: Cowan LRA model


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

According to the WSTS’s Jan 2013 HBR (posted on March 8th, 2013), January 2013’s actual global semiconductor sales came in at $22.824 billion. This actual sales result for January is 2.9 percent higher than January’s sales forecast estimate, namely $22.180 billion.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Plugging January’s actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model yields, the following quarterly, half-year, and full year sales and sales growth forecast expectations for 2013 compared to 2012 sales depicted in the table.

It should be highlighted that with last month’s publishing of the final 2012 sales result by the WSTS, the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semiconductor sales was updated to incorporate the full complement of 2012′s monthly sales numbers, thereby capturing 29 years of historical, global semiconductor (actual) sales numbers as gathered, tracked and published each month by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) on its website.

As described last month, the necessary mathematical computations required in order to update the complete set of linear regression parameters embedded in the Cowan LRA forecasting model for determining future sales were carried out. The newly derived set of linear regression parameters therefore reflect 29 years (1984 to 2012) of historical global semiconductor sales as the basis for predicting future quarterly and full year sales and sale growth forecast expectations by running the Cowan LRA Model.

Therefore, the table given above summarizes the model’s latest, updated 2013 sales and sales growth expectations reflecting the WSTS’s January 2013′s actual sales as calculated by the model’s newly minted set of linear regression parameters.

Note that the latest Cowan LRA Model’s expected 2013 sales growth of 6.6 percent relative to 2012 final sales ($291.562 billion) is more bullish than the WSTS’s adjusted Autumn 2012 sales growth forecast of 3.9 percent as well as the WSTS’s Autumn 2012′s original forecasted sales growth of 4.5 percent which was released back in November of last year.

In addition to forecasting 2013’s quarterly sales estimates the Cowan LRA Model also provides an forecast expectation for February 2013’s sales, namely $22.436 billion. This sales forecast yields a 3MMA forecast for February of $23.571 billion assuming the no or minimal sales revision is made to January’s actual sales.

Finally, the table provided below details the monthly evolution for 2013’s sales and sales growth forecast predictions as put forth by the Cowan LRA forecasting model dating back to September of last year.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Note that the most recent 2013 sales growth forecast is up compared to the previous two forecasts of 5.5 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively.

It should be mentioned that the previous 2013’s sales growth forecast for Dec 2012, namely 3.6 percent, was based upon a sales forecast estimate for Jan 2013 versus the latest sales growth forecast estimate of 6.6 percent, which utilizes Jan’s actual sales result just released in the WSTS’s January 2013 HBR, Historical Billings Report.

Global semicon sales to reach $302.02 billion in 2013: Cowan LRA model

February 18, 2013 5 comments

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

With the ‘closing out’ of the final, overall sales result for 2012 by the WSTS, the Cowan LRA model for forecasting global semiconductor sales has been updated to include the full complement of 2012′s monthly sales numbers, thereby incorporating 29 years of historical, global semiconductor (actual) sales numbers as gathered, tracked and published each month by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.

The necessary mathematical computations required to update the complete set of linear regression parameters embedded in the Cowan LRA forecasting model have been carried out.

The newly derived set of linear regression parameters reflect 29 years (1984 to 2012) of historical global semiconductor sales numbers as a basis of predicting future quarterly and full year sales and sale growth forecast expectations by exercising the Cowan LRA model.

Therefore, the table given here summarizes the model’s latest 2013 sales and sales growth expectations as a function of the model’s range (low, expected and high) for January 2013′s sales forecast estimates as generated by the newly, updated model’s linear regression parameters.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

It is estimated that in 2013, the global semiconductor industry is likely to reach $302.022 billion, a growth of 3.6 percent.

Note that next month’s forecast will be based on January 2013′s actual sales number, which is anticipated to be released by the WSTS at the end of the first week in March. Once posted, the model will be rerun to yield the quarterly and full year sales, and sales growth expectations for 2013, respectively.

Cowan LRA model’s updated forecast for global semicon sales 2012


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Based on the WSTS’s June (posted August 5th, 2012) global semiconductor sales of $26.329 billion, actual sales number, the latest monthly forecast expectation for total global semiconductor sales calculated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model came in at $297 billion.

This represents a 2012 year-on-year sales growth forecast expectation of minus 0.85 percent, which declined from the previous month’s year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of plus 0.1 percent. It is also lower than the joint WSTS/SIA Spring 2012 sales growth forecast of 0.45 percent, which corresponds to a global sales forecast estimate of $300.9 billion.

Consequently, the latest model’s forecast output is presently (based on June 2012′s actual sales) predicting negative sales growth for 2012 compared to 2011.

It should be pointed out that the model’s previous month’s forecast expectation for June was $27.65 billion. This forecasted sales (published last month) was much higher than the actual June sales result of $26.33 billion (lower by $1.32 billion or down 4.8 percent) resulting in an M.I. (Momentum Indictor) of minus 4.8, implying that the sales growth trend will be ‘mildly’ down over the near term.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Inserting June’s actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model also yields the latest updated sales forecast expectations for the remaining two quarters of 2012 and the first two quarters of 2013. These results are summarized in the table below. Also included in the table are previous month’s sales and sales growth forecast results for comparative purposes.

As displayed in Table 1, the latest projected full year 2012 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate fell to $297 billion from last month’s sales forecast expectation of $299.8 billion, a decrease of $2.8 billion.

Correspondingly, the updated 2012 sales growth forecast estimate went negative, dropping to minus 0.85 percent from last month’s slightly positive sales growth forecast estimate of plus 0.11 percent, a decrease of almost a full percentage point.

Also note that July’s actual sales estimate is forecasted to come in at $23.2 billion. Thus, July’s actual sales forecast estimate equates to a July 3MMA sales expectation of $24.15 billion, which is down slightly from June’s 3MMA sales result of $24.4 billion. It should be highlighted that this forecasted July 3MMA sales number assumes no (or very minimal) sales revisions to either May or June’s just published sales results by the WSTS.

Additionally with the ‘wrap up’ of the second quarter sales results, year-to-date sales for 2012 (cumulative sales through June) came in at $143 billion compared to last year’s year-to-date sales of $150.6 billion. This coincides to a 2012 year-to-date sales growth of minus 5.1 percent.

This implies that global semiconductor sales for the second half of 2012 must demonstrate some significant strength to reach last year’s sales result of $299.52 billion in order that the full year’s 2012 sales growth is to break even with last year’s sales, let alone show a mildly positive sales growth for the year. Read more…

Latest Cowan LRA model’s forecast for global semicon sales in 2012

February 8, 2012 1 comment

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

The latest Cowan LRA model parameter update incorporates 2011′s monthly sales results, thereby incorporating 28 years of historical, global actual monthly semiconductor sales as gathered, tracked and published by the WSTS.

Cowan has carried out the necessary mathematical computations in order to update the complete set of linear regression parameters embedded in the Cowan LRA forecast model. This update to the model’s parameters thus reflects 28 years (1984 to 2011) of historical global semiconductor sales numbers.

Therefore, the table given here has provided summarizes the latest model’s 2012 sales and sales growth expectations as a function of the model’s range (low, expected and high) for January 2012′s sales forecast estimates as put out by the updated model.

Note that the Cowan LRA Model’s expected 2012 sales growth (of 3.3 percent) relative to 2011 sales is slightly less bullish than the WSTS’s adjusted autumn 2011 sales growth forecast of 3.6 percent versus WSTS’s autumn 2011′s forecasted sales growth of 2.6 percent.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Update to Cowan LRA model’s global semicon forecast numbers 2011/2012


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

The WSTS posted the October 2011 HBR on Saturday, Dec 3rd, 2011. Consequently, based upon the latest sales numbers availability (through Oct 2011), Cowan has generated updated sales and sales growth forecast numbers for 2011 and 2012 as summarized in the table here:

Sources: WSTS & Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (Dec. 2011).

Sources: WSTS & Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (Dec. 2011).

Major high level result: The forecasted sales and sales growth expectations for both 2011 and 2012 have continued to systematically decrease over the past seven month’s predictions put forth by the Cowan LRA forecast model as highlighted in the table below:

Source: Monthly Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

Source: Monthly Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

The following table, given below, summarizes/compares the recent (last two) forecast pronouncements by the indicated forecasters.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Read more…

2011 sales estimate could vary between $303.8 billion and $311.9 billion: Cowan LRA model

October 20, 2011 4 comments

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

It’s that time of the month again; namely, time for an advanced showing of next month’s global semiconductor sales forecast updates for both 2011 and 2012 as gleamed from September’s “actual” sales expectation range by exercising the “look ahead” forecasting capability of the Cowan LRA forecast model.

September’s upcoming global semiconductor sales result should, therefore, be instrumental in determining the sales growth expectation not only for the third quarter of 2011 but also for the full year of 2011. In particular, one can ascertain whether 2011 will exhibit positive yearly sales growth for the industry or will it turn negative as a number of market researchers have recently forecasted based upon downward third quarter sales guidance recently announced by many semiconductor suppliers?

Therefore, presented here is a “snap shot” of 2011′s global semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast prospects as a function of September’s “actual” sales forecast estimate range as derived via the Cowan LRA forecasting model. Moreover, the model has been extended in order to include a view of what 2012’s sales growth prospects might look like, thereby, providing a six quarter look ahead horizon that allows the model to also capture the four quarters of 2012.

It should be mentioned that September 2011′s “actual” global semiconductor sales number is scheduled to be released by the WSTS via its monthly HBR (Historical Billings Report) on or about Friday, November 4th.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

In advance of the WSTS’s release of its September HBR, here is the monthly outlook analysis leveraging the Cowan LRA forecasting model, which projects worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011 (as well as 2012); namely, by providing a “look ahead” scenario for year 2011′s sales forecast range as a function of next month’s (in this case September’s) assumed range of “actual” global semiconductor sales estimates.

The output of this “look ahead” modelling analysis is detailed in the scenario analysis matrix displayed in the table.

In order to facilitate the determination of these “look ahead” forecast numbers, an extended range in assumed Sept. 2011′s “actual” sales is selected a-priori. In this month’s scenario analysis outlook, a Sept. 2011 sales range from a low of $27.028 billion to a high of $33.028 billion, in increments of $0.250 billion, is pre-selected as listed in the first column of the table. Read more…

Global semiconductor sales forecast estimates fall: Cowan LRA model

October 9, 2011 1 comment

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

The WSTS posted August 2011′s HBR (Historical Billings Report) on its website on Monday, October 4th, 2011, thereby allowing the calculation of the monthly update of the latest global semiconductor sales forecast estimates for 2011 and 2012 via exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting model reflecting August 2011′s monthly sales including any revisions to previous months’ reported sales numbers. According to the WSTS’s August HBR, August’s actual global semiconductor sales came in at $24.216 billion with a corresponding August 3MMA sales of $25.033 billion.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

It should be highlighted that none of the previous seven months (January through July) experienced any sales revisions from last month’s published HBR. Thus, the total YTD cumulative sales through August totaled $198.271 billion.

This represents a 2011 YTD sales growth of 2.2 percent compared to the same time period in 2010 when August 2010′s YTD sales were $193.976 billion. This continues a downward trend in the month-to-month 2011 YTD sales growth numbers since the beginning of the year as shown in the table here.

The Cowan LRA model’s sales forecast estimates for the month of August as determined by last month’s model run were $26.177 billion (actual) and $25.686 billion (3MMA), respectively. Consequently, the model’s August MI (Momentum Indicator) came in at minus 7.5 percent, which “degraded” from last month’s MI of minus 3.7 percent.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

This indicates (mathematically speaking) that the semiconductor industry’s August actual sales came in much lower than the model’s previous month’s forecasted expectation by $1.961 billion. This implies that 2011′s sales growth could continue to trend downward for the rest of this year relative to this month’s sales growth expectation of 3.9 percent as discussed here.

The key take-aways from comparing the latest forecast estimates vs. the previous month’s projections (as displayed in the table) are highlighted here:

* 2011′s updated global semiconductor sales forecast estimate fell by $3.219 billion to $309.998 billion (from last month’s sales forecast estimate of $313.217).
* Correspondingly, 2011′s sales growth forecast estimate dropped by 1.1 percentage points to 3.9 percent (from last month’s 5.0 percent sales growth forecast estimate).
* September 2011′s actual sales forecast expectation is $31.528 billion, which corresponds to a September 3MMA sales estimate of $26.413 billion assuming no (or very minor) sales revisions to either July or August’s published actual sales compared to August’s just published HBR by the WSTS.
* 2012′s global semicon sales forecast estimate fell by $3.817 billion to $335.627 billion (from last month’s sales forecast estimate of $339.443 billion).
* Correspondingly, 2012′s sales growth forecast estimate dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 8.3 percent (from last month’s 8.4 percent sales growth forecast estimate).

Next month’s Cowan LRA model’s forecast update, which will reflect September 2011′s actual global semiconductor sales, is expected to be available on or about Tuesday, Nov. 8th, 2011 following the posting of the Sept. HBR on the WSTS’s website.

Global semicon sales forecast: Cowan LRA model

September 8, 2011 1 comment

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

The WSTS posted July 2011′s HBR (Historical Billings Report) on its website last Sunday, September 04, 2011 thereby allowing the monthly update of the latest global semiconductor sales forecast estimates for 2011 and 2012 via exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting model that reflects July 2011′s monthly sales numbers including any sales revisions to previously reported sales results.

According to the WSTS’s July HBR, July’s actual sales came in at $23.495 billion with a corresponding July 3MMA sales at $24.850 billion.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

It should be highlighted that the previous five months (February through June) experienced varying upward sales revisions from last month’s published HBR, as highlighted in the table here. Thus, the total YTD cumulative sales revision is upward by almost $1.0 billion bringing the YTD sales through July to $174.055 billion. This represents a 2011 YTD sales growth of 3.2 percent compared to the same time period in 2010.

The Cowan LRA model’s sales forecast estimates for July as determined by last month’s model run were $24.410 billion (actual) and$25.007 billion (3MMA), respectively. Consequently, the model’s July MI (Momentum Indicator) came in at minus 3.7 percent which “improved” from last month’s MI of minus 7.9 percent. This indicates (mathematically speaking) that the semiconductor industry’s July actual sales came in lower than the model’s previous month’s forecasted expectation by $0.915 billion and 2011′s sales growth could continue to trend downward for the rest of this year all be it at a slower rate compared to last month’s MI.

Plugging the latest actual sales numbers abstracted from the July HBR into the forecasting model produces the following updated sales and sales growth forecast estimates for the remaining two quarters of 2011 as well as the four quarters of 2012 and full year:

Source: Cowan LRA model.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

The key take-aways from comparing the latest forecast results versus previous month’s forecast numbers (in the above table) are highlighted below:
*  2011′s updated global semicon sales forecast estimate fell marginally by $0.146 billion to $313.217 billion (from last month’s sales forecast estimate of $313.363).
*  Correspondingly, 2011′s sales growth forecast estimate dropped by 0.049 percentage points to 4.995 percent (from last month’s 5.044 percent sales growth forecast estimate).
*  August 2011′s actual sales forecast expectation is $26.177 billion, which corresponds to an August 3MMA sales estimate of $25.686 billion assuming no (or very minor) sales revisions to either June or July’s published actual sales compared to July’s just published HBR by the WSTS.
*  2012′s global semicon sales forecast estimate fell by $4.270 billion to $339.443 billion (from last month’s sales forecast estimate of $343.713).

June 2011 global semicon sales expectation for 2011: Cowan LRA model


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

June 2011′s “actual” global semiconductor sales number is scheduled to be released by the WSTS, via its monthly HBR (Historical Billings Report), on or about Friday, August 5th. The monthly HBR is posted by the WSTS on its website.

In advance of the upcoming June sales release by the WSTS, Mike Cowan will detail an analysis capability using the Cowan LRA forecasting model to project worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011; namely, the ability to provide a “look ahead” scenario for year 2011′s sales forecast range as a function of next month’s (in this case June’s) “actual” global semiconductor sales estimate.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

The output of this “look ahead” modeling capability is captured in the scenario analysis matrix displayed in the table below. The details of these forecast results are also summarized in the paragraphs immediately following the table.

In order to facilitate the determination of these “look ahead” forecast numbers, an extended range in possible June 2011′s “actual” sales is selected a-priori; in this particular scenario analysis, a June 2011 sales range from a low of $27.935 billion to a high of $30.935 billion, in increments of $0.250 billion, was chosen as listed in the first column of the table.

This estimated range in possible “actual” sales numbers is “centered around” a projected June sales forecast estimate of $29.435 billion as gleamed from last month’s Cowan LRA Model run (based upon May’s WSTS published “actual” sales number). The corresponding June 3MMA sales forecast estimate is projected to be $25.445 billion. (NOTE – assumes no, or minor. revisions in either April or May’s previously published “actual” sales numbers released last month by the WSTS).

The overall year 2011 sales forecast estimate for each one of the assumed June sales over the pre-selected range of ‘actual’ sales estimates is calculated by the model, and is shown in the second column of the table. Read more…

Global forecast estimates based on WSTS’s May semicon sales: Cowan LRA model


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

The WSTS posted May 2011′s HBR, Historical Billings Report, on its website on Tuesday, July 5th, 2011.

According to the WSTS’s HBR, May’s actual sales came in at $23.494 billion with the corresponding May 3MMA sales at $25.031 billion. It should be noted that two months experienced slight downward sales revisions from last month’s published HBR, namely March (down by $0.147 billion) and April (down by $0.112 billion), respectively.

The Cowan LRA model’s sales forecast estimates for May as published last month were $24.565 billion (actual) and $25.474 billion (3MMA), respectively. Thus, the model’s May MI (Momentum Indicator) came in at minus 4.4 percent.

This indicates (mathematically speaking) that the semiconductor industry’s actual May sales result was much lower than the model’s expectation by $1.071 billion and that, most probably, 2011′s sales growth will be trending downward for the rest of this year.

Plugging the latest actual sales number for May into the model yields the following updated sales and sales growths forecast estimates for 2011:

Global semicon sales monthly update based on Cowan's LRA model.

Global semicon sales monthly update based on Cowan's LRA model.

The key take-aways from comparing the latest versus previous month’s forecast results are highlighted below:
* 2011′s sales forecast estimate fell by $3.937 billion to $318.391 billion (from last month’s sales forecast estimate of $322.328 billion).
* Correspondingly, 2011′s sales growth forecast estimate dropped by 1.3 percentage points to 6.7 percent (from last month’s 8 percent sales growth forecast estimate).
* June 2011′s actual sales forecast expectation is $29.435 billion which corresponds to a June 3MMA sales estimate of $25.445 billion assuming no (or minor) sales revisions for either April or May’s previously published actual sales from last month.

Next month’s forecast update based upon June’s actual sales are expected to be available on or about Friday, Aug 5th, 2011.

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