The SEMI/Gartner Market Symposium was held Semicon West 2014 at San Francisco, on July 7. Am grateful to Ms. Becky Tonnesen, Gartner, and Ms Agnes Cobar, SEMI, for providing me the presentations. Thanks are also due to Ms Deborah Geiger, SEMI.
Dean Freeman, research VP, Gartner, outlined the speakers:
• Sunit Rikhi, VP, Technology and Manufacturing Group, GM, Intel Custom Foundry Intel, presented on Competing in today’s Fabless Ecosystem.
• Bob Johnson, VP Research, Gartner, presented the Semiconductor Capital Spending Outlook.
• Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, director Market Research, SEMI, presented the SEMI World Fab Forecast: Analysis and Forecast for Fab Spending, Capacity and Technology.
• Sam Wang, VP Research Analyst, Gartner, presented on How Foundries will Compete in a 3D World.
• Jim Walker, VP Research, Gartner, presented on Foundry versus SATS: The Battle for 3D and Wafer Level Supremacy.
• Dr. Dan Tracy, senior director, Industry Research & Statistics, SEMI, presented on Semiconductor Materials Market Outlook.
Let’s start with Sunit Rikhi at Intel.
As a new player in the fabless eco-system, Intel focuses on:
* The value it brings to the table.
* How it delivers on platforms of capability and services.
* How it leverage the advantages of being inside the world’s leading Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM)
* How it face the challenges of being inside the world’s leading IDM.
Intel has leadership in silicon technologies. Transistor performance per watt is the critical enabler for all. Density improvements offset wafer cost trends. Intel currently has ~3.5-year lead in introducing revolutionary transistor technologies.
In foundry capabilities and services platforms, Intel brings differentiated value on industry standard platforms. 22nm was started in 2011, while 14nm was started in 2013. 10nm will be starting in 2015. To date, 125 prototype designs have been processed.
Intel offers broad capability and services on industry standard platforms. It also has fuller array of co-optimized end-to-end services. As for the packaging technology, Intel has been building better products through
multi-component integration. Intel has also been starting high on the yield learning curve.
Regarding IDM challenges, such as high-mix-low-volume configuration, Intel has been doing configuration optimization in tooling and set-up. It has also been separating priority and planning process for customers. Intel has been providing an effective response for every challenge.
Some of Intel Custom Foundry announced customers include Achronix, Altera, Microsemi, Netronome, Panasonic and Tabula.
Thanks to the Enable450 newsletter, sent out by Malcolm Penn, CEO, Future Horizons, here is a piece on the Metro450 Conference 2014, held earlier this year in Israel.
Metro450 is an Israel-based consortium with the goal of helping the metrology companies advance in their fields. The consortium’s members include metrology and related companies, as well as academics who support these companies by performing basic research.
The conference was sponsored by the Israeli Chief Scientist Office, by Applied Materials Israel and by Intel. There were several goals for the conference: to provide an opportunity for industry leaders as well as academicians to meet and discuss the latest developments in the world of metrology, to present these advances to audiences which would normally not be privy to such information, and to learn more about the international effort in 450mm wafer technology.
Over 200 people attended this conference from Israeli companies and academia, as well as from Europe and the United States. Israeli companies included Applied Materials, Jordan Valley, Nova, KLA, Zeiss Israel, and others. Academic members included researchers from the leading Israeli universities, including the Technion, Tel-Aviv U. and Haifa U. European companies were represented by ENIAC, as well as large corporations such as ASML as well SME-based companies. The G450C consortium, based in Albany, N.Y. was also well represented at this conference.
Some of the highlights of the conference included scientific discussions of different metrology methods, and their adjunct requirements, such as improved rapid wafer movement, improved sampling methods and fast computing. Presentations also included an overview of the advances necessary to move the industry forward, optical CD metrology, x-ray metrology, and novel piezo-based wafer movement.
A panel discussed various broad industry trends, including the timeline of 450mm wafers, European programs and the Israeli programs. International speakers discussed the European technology model, risk mitigation of 450 through collaborations, 450 collaborative projects under ENIAC, 450mm wafer movement challenges and metrology challenges beyond 14nm.
This second annual Metro450 conference took place this January at the Technion, Israel.
IC Insights recently released the 1H-11 top 20 semicon sales leaders. No surprises here, with Intel, Samsung, TSMC, TI and Toshiba as the top five leaders in that order. In all, 10 of the top 20 suppliers outperformed the total global semiconductor industry 1H11/1H10 growth rate of 4 percent.
The fabless companies — notably, Qualcomm, Broadcom, and so on, have registered positive growths. However, if you really look carefully, a lot of the companies thereafter have registered negative growth for the period 1H-11 over 1H-10.
What’s surprising to notice is the fact that at least seven companies — Renesas, Hynix, Micron, AMD, Infineon, Elpida and NXP have registered negative growth! This, during a period when the semiconductor industry was said to be on the rebound? Whatever the reasons, they are all in the red!
Now, we are not spent from discussing an industry turnaround, which is perhaps there! Also, the forecast for 2H-11 isn’t something to go overboard. IC Insights expects the 2H11/1H11 semiconductor market to grow only 6 percent, that is, a full-year 2011 semiconductor industry growth rate of 5 percent.
Closer to home, as usual, there are no Indian firms in the global top 20 list. As things stand, they may not even make it to the list, at least, for quite a while. One hopes that this situation somehow changes. Wonder, how did the India Semiconductor Association (ISA)-Frost & Sullivan study come up with a figure of 28.3 percent growth in 2010! Perhaps, I am mistaken in my calculations somewhere!!
Enterprises should start thinking what needs to get into their respective clouds. Transformative IT is unhinging the rules. There will be a cloud-based convergence era in the future, according to Avneesh Saxena, Group VP, Domain Research Group, IDC Asia/Pacific. He was presenting on cloud deployment trends in the Asia Pacific region at the recently held Intel APAC Cloud Summit.
According to him, China and India – with 9 percent each – led the countries in GPD and change agents. He referred to four mega trends:
* Information – exploding data. Just under 50 percent of TB shipped in 2014 will be in the public cloud.
* Mobility – third platform for industry growth. Mobile devices, services and applications will grow from 2011. This will be the intelligent economy.
* The technology catalyst. Servers, blades, cores, VMs, data transmission, 10G ports — all will grow, some, by at least 5-10 times.
* IT spending (external spend only) will be worth $282 billion in Asia Pacific excluding Japan (APeJ). Also, 31 percent of CIOs and 25 percent of LoBs (line of business) plan to spend 11-30 percent more.
The top three priorities for CIOs and LoBs are as follows:
* Simplify the IT infrastructure.
* Lower the overall cost structure.
* Harnessing IT for competitive edge.
We will be investing more in mobility and analytics. There will be a move toward consolidation, virtualization and better efficiency. There will also be a move toward a more flexible, agile and scalable infrastructure. Saxena outlined three key transformational trends:
* Behavior/access — mobility/analytics.
* Infrastructure/devices — convergence, virtualization.
* Delivery/consumption — cloud.
Mobilution is a confluence of factors. It is mobile everything. A lot of the distribution channels aer also cloud driven. Analytics-led competitive acceleration is the primary objective of business analytics projects. Saxena added there could yet be another disruption — in the form of micro servers. The idea is to lower the cost of computing per unit of work. Even Intel’s infrastructure will get 75 percent virtualized in three to four years from now.
There will also be converged infrastructure for private clouds. Besides, server virtualization is ramping up fast. There will be a huge increase in server shipments by 2014. Next, there will be device proliferation impact on client virtualization. There is a demand to connect all of our devices — smartphones, iPads, BlackBerrys, tablets, etc.
Evolving cloud business models include, C2C. The consumer clouds are the most popular, such as Hotmail, Gmail, Google Docs, etc. B2C clouds are the next — such as NetFlix, Apple, Skype, etc. Finally, there are B2B clouds — enterprise clouds — where security, SLAs are the differentiators.
Security/regulation are critical for public clouds. As of now, private clouds are deemed to be more secure than public clouds. Solving cloud security and compliance is a huge revenue opportunity for vendors.
Rekha Raghu, Strategic Program Manager, Intel, Software and Services Group, discussed some reference architecture (RA) case studies. Intel Cloud Builders program is a reference architecture (RA) — a starting point from where to build and optimize cloud infrastructure.
The RA Development Process takes anywhere from two to three weeks. It involves exploration, planning, integration, testing and development. The RA is said to be:
* Detailed know-how guides.
* Practical guidance for building and enhancing cloud infrastructure.
* Best-known methods learned through hands-on lab work.
RA case study # 1 – efficient power management
Data center power management involves monitor and control server power, and later, manage and co-ordinate at data center level. Dynamic power management is on the server, rack, and data center levels.
Power management use cases help to save money via real time monitoring, optimized workloads and energy reduction. They allow scaling farther via power guard rail and optimization of rack density. They also help prepare for the worst in terms of disaster recovery/business continuity.
Intel also presented a power management RA overview as well as an implementation view. The monitoring, reporting and analysis provides insight into energy use and efficiency, as well as CO2 emissions. Rack density optimization and power guard rail enables more servers deployed per rack. It improves the opex cost of power delivery per system. It also extends the capex data center investment with increased node deployments.
As for disaster recovery/business continuity, there is policy based power throttling per node to bring the data center back to life more quickly and safely. The next step involves inlet temperature monitoring and response based on thermal events (already available in Intel Intelligent Power Node Manager).
Workload-power optimization identifies optimal power reduction without performance impact. Customized analysis is required as each workload draws power differently.
RA case study # 2 – enhanced cloud security
If one looks at the trends in security in the enterprise, there are shifts in types of attacks. The platform is now as a target, not just software. Stealth and control are taken as objectives.
There are increased compliance concerns. HIPPA, Payment Card Industry (PCI), etc., require security enforcement and auditing. Changes in architectures require new protections as well. These include Virtualization and multi-tenancy, third party dependencies, and location identification.
Trustable compute pools usage models lead to compliance and trust in the cloud. Compliance in the cloud involves multi-tenancy that could complicate compliance. There is need for software trust despite physical abstraction. Also, compliance requires effective reporting. There is a need to enforce VM migration based on security policy.
Intel-VMware-HyTrust enables trusted compute pools. The outcome is that data integrity is secure and there is no compliance violation.
Intel Trusted Execution Technology (TXT) enforces platform control. It allows greater control of launch stack and enables isolation in boot process. It also complements runtime protections, and reduces support and remediation costs. Hardware based trust provides verification useful in compliance.
HyTrust appliance enforces policy. It is a virtual appliance that provides unified access control, policy enforcement, and audit-quality logging for the administration of virtual infrastructure.
Intel provides solutions to pro-actively control and audit virtualized data centers.
Billy Cox, director, Cloud Strategy, Software and Services Group, Intel, said that IT and service providers need to define and prioritize IT requirements. Products and technologies go on to take advantage of new capabilities in Intel platforms. The Intel Cloud Builders program helps utilize proven reference solutions to ease your deployments.
Technology to optimize the CloudNode requires orchestration and automation. This involves: compliance and security, high performance IO, and density and efficiency.
So, what’s the need for having reference architectures now? Where do you draw the lines for a reference architecture? Enterprises have mostly relied on build to order architectures. With the advent of cloud, there is more of configure to order architectures.
Cloud hardware architectures generally focus on homogenous compute, flat networks and distributed storage. The cloud software IaaS stack looks at horizontal management roles. The focus is on service delivery.
The Open Data Center usage models include secure federation – provider assurance and compliance monitoring, automation – VM operability and ID control, common management and policy – regulatory framework, as well as transparency – service catalog, standard unit of measurement, and carbon footprint, where the cloud services become “CO2 aware”. Cox also referred to data center usage models in 2011, where Intel is delivering products/technologies to address usage models.
Intel Cloud Builders program reference architectures is a starting point from which to build and optimize cloud infrastructure. Solutions are available today to make it easier to build and optimize cloud infrastructure. Intel offers proven, open, interoperable solutions optimized for IA capabilities. It is also establishing the foundation for more secure clouds.
Data center efficiency priorities involve achieving efficiency and reliability by maximizing available capacity and modular build out for growth. Intel has a holistic approach – systems, rack, design and monitoring.
For instance, the Unified Network consolidates traffic on an 10G Ethernet fabric. It simplifies the network by migrating to 10GbE and lowers TCO by consolidating data and storage networks. Flexible network is the foundation of cloud architecture.
Intel Cloud Builders is easing cloud deployments via proven, interoperable solutions for IT.
According to Allyson Klein, director, Leadership Marketing, Data Center Group, Intel Corp., the compute continuum has arrived. The connected world is becoming larger and more diverse. There will approximately be over 1 billion new users by 2015.
We are witnessing a sea of new devices, limited only by our creativity. There are estimated to be more than 15 billion devices connected by 2015. All of these devices are creating a renaissance of compute experience, that is pervasive and simple computing. These will once again change the ways we work and live.
And, a new frontier of insight, simplifying our lives and making our world more efficient. So, what about the cloud? Cloud will be the performance engine of the compute continuum.
There has been an introduction of a new economic model for computing: ~ 600 Apple iPhones will need a new server; and so would ~120 iPads. And, this is only said to be the beginning!
The data center processor growth has been >2X in 10 years. Data center acceleration is estimated to be >2X in the next five years. Cloud’s contribution to data center growth will be significant. In 2010, cloud was contributing 10 percent. This should double to 20 percent in 2015.
Intel’s strategy for creating the cloud includes:
IT & service providers – define and prioritize IT requirements.
Products & technologies – take advantage of new capabilities in Intel platforms.
Intel Cloud Builders – utilize proven reference solutions to ease your deployments.
The Open Data Center Alliance is a catalyst for change, given that open and interoperable solutions are essential. In October 2010, the Alliance established the first user-driven organization for cloud requirements. There were 70 IT leaders joined by technical advisor Intel. Five technical working groups were formed.
In June 2011, the Open Data Center Alliance released the first user-driven requirements for the cloud. It now has 4X members representing over $100 billion in annual IT spend. There have been new technical collaborations as well — four organizations and four initial solutions providers. The Alliance endorses immediate use to guide member planning and purchasing decisions.
“The benefits of cloud are real! We have so far seen $17 million savings to date from our internal cloud efforts,” said Liam Keating, Intel APAC IT director and China IT country manager. He was speaking at the Intel APAC Cloud Summit in Malaysia.
Intel currently runs 91 data centers, globally, from over 140, about a couple of years ago. As of now, cloud has become a key strategy for Intel.
If one views Intel’s data center profile, it looks like this:
D – Design – Expanded HPC solutions.
O – Office – Enterprise private cloud.
M – Manufacturing – Factory automation.
E – Enterprise - Enterprise private cloud.
S – Services – Enterprise private cloud.
In the past (in 2009), Intel had 12 percent virtualization. It had a design grid as well. According to Keating, Intel’s experience with grid computing helped in the company’s cloud computing strategy. Currently, Intel boasts over 50 percent virtualization. In future, this would move to over 75 percent. Keating added that Intel will continue to experiment and evolve the public cloud.
As for the applications residing on the internal cloud, these include: engineering 5 percent, sales/marketing 19 percent, ERP 13 percent, HR/finance/legal 22 percent, operations/security/manageability 26 percent, and productivity/collaboration 15 percent.
The business benefits are immense. “We are improving the velocity and availability of IT services,” Keating said. He outlined five strategic benefits, as below:
* Agility – immediate provisioning.
* Higher responsiveness.
* Lower business costs.
* Flexible configurations.
* Secured infrastructure.
In terms of business velocity, there has been reduced provisioning time — from 90 days to three hours. Intel is now on its way to minutes! As for efficiency, the server consolidation is at a 20:1 ratio. In terms of capacity, there has been a shift from capacity planning to demand forecast modes. Finally, quality, where the standard configurations improved consistency and enabled automation.
Intel has learned best practices lessons from implementing the cloud. First, the cloud terminology itself. There have been leadership support as well as IT business partnerships. Intel has also set short-term priorities — pervasive virtualization and faster provisioning. Intel has also learned to manage with data – P2V RoI, measured services, business intelligence (BI) collection, server sizing, etc.
Current challenges facing Intel include asset management and utilization. There is a need to be cognizant of performance saturation, and also understand the degrees of separation. The integrated management view is critical in all of this.
Another challenge is presented by capacity planning, which is shifting to demand forecasting. Quicker provisioning requires the view into the future cloud as well. Next, automation re-inforces the workforce too!
Intel’s IT division has successfully developed a private cloud. This has aligned the IT strategy to business needs. Business benefits will generate value. Cloud transition has now become a multi-year journey at Intel.
Intel India held a demonstration of “The-Cloud-in-a-Box,” conducted by Nick Knupffer, marketing program manager, Intel Corp.
According to him, user experience is the driving force in our industry: both device and the cloud. Innovation starts with the best transistors. He added that cloud computing is not only inevitable; it is imperative. Intel is said to have the right solutions required to enable a connected world.
By 2015, there will be more users, over 15 billion connected devices, and naturally, data — 1 zetabyte Internet traffic. Internet and device expansion drives new requirements for IT solutions.
Intel’s Cloud 2015 vision is one of federated, automated and client aware networks. Federated, so that data can be shared securely across public and private clouds. Client aware, so that services can be optimized based on device capability. Automated, so that IT can focus more on innovation and less on management.
Data center processor growth has been >2X in five years. The mobile Internet that runs on Intel is also growing its data center business. Intel has moved to higher process nodes, and 22nm is now a revolutionary leap in process technology. Today, 70 percent of the global CIOs have cloud security top of mind.
Intel is now building the ecosystem around better, faster and stronger security based on Xeon. Here, the Intel Advanced Encryption Standard New Instructions (Intel AES-NI) and the Intel Trusted Execution Technology (Intel TXT), are currently prominent.