Skin inspired electronics can be used for mobile health such as wireless sensor bands, cell phone and computer at doctor’s office, according to Prof. Zhenan Bao, Stanford University. She was delivering the inaugural lecture on day two of the ongoing 13th Global Electronics Summit in Santa Cruz, USA.
There are organic field-effect transistors (OTFTs). The current flow is moderated by binding of molecules and pressure. E-skin sensor functions have touch (pressure) sensors, chemical sensors and biological sensors. There are other flexible pressure sensors such as conductive rubber, which is thick and has hysteresis. Another type is poly-vinylidene fluoride (PVDF) thin film. Yet another type is the OTFT touch (pressure) sensor.
There is an example of the heart pulse measurement. Another related device is the full pulse wave for medical diagnostics such as blood pressure monitoring, detecting arrhythmia, heart defects and vascular diseases. In terms of temperature sensing, Stanford has developed a flexible body temperature sensor made of plastic.
There is chemical sensing as well. These are very stable and can be put in sea water. There are also electronics to mimic the body, such as the biodegradable OTFT. Another example is the transparent, stretchable pressure sensor. Finally, the other attribute of the human skin is self healing. Stanford University also developed the all-self-healing e-skin.
The e-skin concept ‘Super Skin’ has touch pressure sensors, chemical or biological sensors in air – electronic nose and liquid environments – electronic tongue, flexible strechable materials, biocompatible or biodegradable, self-powered — strechable solar cells and self healing.
According to Prof. Yi Cui, Dept. of Materials, Science & Engineering, Stanford University, nanometer is an enabling technology. We can do applications such as electronics, energy, environment and health. Some examples are high energy batteries, printed energy storage devices on paper, textile and sponge, etc. He was delivering the inaugural address at the Globalpress Electronics Summit 2013, being held in Santa Cruz, USA.
High energy battery has portable and stationary applications. In portable, energy density, cost and safety are important. In stationary, cost, power, energy efficiency and ultra-long life are important. The standard is 500 cycles at 80 percent. One of the challenges of silicon anodes is that Si has 4200 mAh/g of silicon, 10 times more than carbon.
Nanowires can offer shorter distance for Li diffusion (high power), good strain release and interface control (for better cycle life), and continuous electron transport pathway (high power). In-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Double walled hollow structure provides stable solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). The outer surface is static. Amprius, where Prof. Cui is CTO, is a $6 million US government funded enterprise. Amprius China started in Nanjing, in April 2012.
Another example is printed energy storage devices on paper, textile and sponge. For low-cost scaffold, paper, textile and sponge, are used. There is cellulose paper and synthetic textile, besides sponge, as well.
There can be transparent batteries. It is actually very hard to develop those. The challenges for making a transparent battery are Al film, cathode, electrolyte, etc. An idea: dimension smaller than eye’s detection limit (50-100 um). Also, grids are well aligned.
Transparent conducting electrodes provide electrical and allow light to pass through. Apps include solar cells, etc. Indium tin oxide (ITO) has a low abundance of indium, brittleness when bent, and sputtering at high cost. Electrospinning of nanofibers is done for transparent electrodes. An example is the trough-shaped nanowires.
Yet another example is the water nanofilters for killing pathogens. The processes available for killing bacteria include chemical disinfection, UV disinfection, boiling, etc.
The first generation product is currently ready at Amprius. Amprius licensed the IP from Stanford. Stanford is also an investor in Amprius.
How will the global semiconductor industry perform in 2013? After a contrasting spell of predictions for 2012, I see no change in 2013! So, what’s the answer to the million-dollar question posed as my headline?
After a disappointing and challenging 2012, global semiconductor executives believe that the worst is nearly behind them, and they are making investments to position their companies for a sustained, broad-based, multi-year recovery in 2013, as per a KPMG global semiconductor survey.
On Feb. 3, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that worldwide semiconductor sales for 2012 reached $291.6 billion, the industry’s third-highest yearly total, ever but a decrease of 2.7 percent from the record total of $299.5 billion set in 2011. Total sales for the year narrowly beat expectations from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization’s industry forecast.
The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) estimated that the global semiconductor market in 2012 will be $290 billion, down 3.2 percent from 2011, followed by a recovery of positive 4.5 percent growth to $303 billion in 2013.
The worldwide semiconductor revenue is projected to total $311 billion in 2013, a 4.5 percent increase from 2012 revenue, according to Gartner Inc. The worldwide semiconductor revenue totaled $298 billion in 2012, a 3 percent decline from 2011 revenue of $307 billion, according to preliminary results by Gartner.
The outlook for the global semiconductor industry in 2013 will likely be 7.9 percent, according to Future Horizons. It means, the industry will likely grow to $315.4 billion in 2013. The Cowan LRA foreasting model put out the following sales and year-on-year sales growth numbers for 2012 and 2013: $292.992 billion (-2.2 percent) and $309.244 billion (+5.5 percent), respectively.
Databeans expects 2013 will see a rebound, with the semiconductor industry growing by 7 percent from 2012 totals to reach $313.04 billion. IDC forecasted that the worldwide semiconductor revenues will grow 4.9 percent and reach $319 billion in 2013.
IHS iSuppli claimed that the semiconductor silicon revenue will close 2012 at $303 billion, down 2.3 percent from $310 billion in 2011. The projected decline comes in contrast to the 1.3 percent gain made last year.
IC Insights forecasted 6 percent IC unit growth for 2013 based on expectations of global GDP to rise to 3.2 percent. According to IC
Insights, in 2017, China is expected to represent 38 percent of the worldwide IC market, up from 23 percent, 10 years earlier in 2007. Does this mean the USA and Europe are loosing their sheen?
The global semiconductor industry may record only 1.5 percent growth In 2013, as per The Infornation Network. There is, however, the possibility for a snap-back in revenues for 2013, irrespective of macroeconomic factors, such as what occurred in 2010.
Over the next three years, industry analysts estimate the global industry will grow approximately 6 percent 2013-2016 CAGR, according to Somshubro Pal Choudhury, managing director, Analog Devices India Pvt. Ltd.
Late 2012, I was speaking with Dr. Wally Rhines, chairman and CEO, Mentor Graphics. He said: “After almost no growth in 2012, most of the analysts are expecting improvement in semiconductor market growth in the coming year. Currently, the analyst forecasts for the semiconductor industry in 2013 range from 4.2 percent on the low side to 16.6 percent on the high side, with most firms coming in between 6 percent and 10 percent. The average of forecasts among the major semiconductor analyst firms is approximately 8.2 percent.”
WSTS also anticipates the world market to grow 5.2 percent to $319 billion in 2014, with healthy mid single digit growth across most of geographical regions and semiconductor product categories, supported by the healthier economy of the world.
Lastly, Forbes said that 2013 will be a turning point for the global semiconductor market.
This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.
According to the WSTS’s August (posted Oct. 9th, 2012 on its website) actual global semiconductor sales of $23.013 billion, the updated monthly forecast expectation for full year 2012′s total global semiconductor sales is expected to be $294.6 billion as calculated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model.
This latest update to the 2012 sales forecast estimate corresponds to a year-over-year sales growth expectation of minus 1.7 percent, which dropped from the previous month’s year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.5 percent.
It is also lower than the joint WSTS/SIA Spring 2012 sales growth forecast (published in June of this year) of plus 0.45 percent which corresponds to a global sales forecast estimate of $300.9 billion. Therefore, the model’s latest monthly sales forecast output (based on the just announced August 2012’s actual sales) continues to project even more negative sales growth for 2012 compared to 2011 and has remained negative for the third month in a row.
The model’s previous month’s forecast expectation for August’s actual sales was $24.8 billion as shown in the first table. This forecasted sales number generated last month was much higher than the just published actual August sales of $23.013 billion (larger by $1.76 billion or down 7.1 percent). This results in an M.I. (Momentum Indicator) of minus 7.1 implying that the sales growth trend will be ‘marginally’ down (that is, more negative) over the near term forecast horizon.
Incorporating August’s just published actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model also produces the latest updated sales and sales growth forecast expectations for the remaining two quarters of 2012 as well as for the four quarters of 2013.
These results are summarized in the first table. Also provided in the table are the corresponding previous month’s sales and sales growth forecast numbers which were determined last month thereby providing sequential monthly forecast estimate comparisons.
As displayed in the Table 1, the latest projected full year 2012 global semi sales forecast estimate decreased to $294.6 billion from last month’s sales forecast expectation of $298.0 billion, a decrease of $3.5 billion or down sequentially by 1.2 percent. Correspondingly, the updated 2012 sales growth forecast expectation declined to minus 1.7 percent from last month’s sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.5 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, still remaining in the negative territory; however, more negative than last month.
Also, next month’s September actual sales forecast estimate is projected to come in at $29.8 billion. Consequently, the resulting September’s actual sales forecast estimate equates to a September 3MMA sales expectation of $25.5 billion which is up from August’s 3MMA sales result of $24.3 billion. It should be emphasized that this forecasted September 3MMA sales number assumes no (or very minimal) sales revisions to either July or August’s actual sales numbers just published by the WSTS.
Additionally, year-to-date cumulative sales for 2012 (total yearly sales through August) came in at $189.5 billion compared to last year’s year-to-date cumulative sales number of $198.5 billion. This equates to a 2012 year-to-date (through August) sales growth result of minus 4.6 percent. This implies that global semiconductor sales for the second half of 2012 must exhibit significant strength to reach last year’s sales number of $299.52 billion in order that the full year’s 2012 sales growth will break even with last year’s sales, let alone show a mildly positive sales growth for the year.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced that the worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011 reached a record $299.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percent from the $298.3 billion recorded in 2010. While this is a very small increase over 2010, the SIA has said this is a record! Perhaps, it is, as the $300 billion mark is about to be breached!!
The SIA, in its release, has talked about the challenges that the global industry has had to face in 2011, notably, the tsunami in Japan, and the floods in Thailand. That the global semiconductor industry has still managed to reach nearly $300 billion is a feat in itself! And, as usual, Asia does continue to play a relatively large role.
According to the SIA, the optoelectronic, sensor and actuator, and microprocessor markets have showed solid year over year growth. In fact, sensors and actuators are said to have showed the highest year over year growth at 15.5 percent to $8 billion in 2011. Likewise, MOS microprocessors have also shown commendable growth.
So, what does 2012 hold for the global semiconductor industry?
Last November, IC Insights had said that although low single-digit growth is forecast for the total semiconductor market in 2011, several companies are likely to register results that are quite different. There have already been some forecasts since then. IHS iSuppli has said that the semiconductor industry revenue is likely to reach $323.2 billion in 2012. As of now, the global semiconductor sales has been forecast at $329.4 billion for 2012 by Mike Cowan, while the Singapore Semiconductor Industry Association (SSIA) has a figure of $313 billion for 2012. Keep your eyes wide open!
It was indeed a pleasant surprise to receive an email from Electronics Weekly, yesterday evening, informing me that my blog was recently shortlisted/nominated in the 2008 ElectronicsWeekly.com Blog Awards by a reader of ElectronicsWeekly.com!
All of the nominated blogs have apparently been considered by the panel of judges at ElectronicsWeekly.com. The email said, “I am delighted to inform you that you have made the shortlist in the Best Electronics Hardware Blog category.”
The list can be seen on Electronics Weekly’s (www.electronicsweekly.com) website!
Wow! I must add that here that there are such great blogs and bloggers in that list that I went dizzy for a few minutes!
I never expected my blog to reach this kind of appeal or level! Nor do I think I have that kind of traffic, as this blog has more to do with serious stuff, rather than talk about gadgets, etc. In fact, somebody once told me last year that no one would bother about a blog on semicon and electronics, nor would I get any traffic!
Well, all of this has never bothered me. I’m here to blog about what I feel is close to my heart! If folks happen to stop by, I am extremely grateful to all of them!
Irrespective of whether I win this award, it is just the right time to thank all of you, dear readers of my blog! Thanks to all of you for choosing to stop by my blog occasionally! I sincerely hope you find the content interesting and appealing enough.
There’s lots happening in the semiconductor, electronics and telecom industries, and hope that I am able to add my views on all of those in the coming months.
Thanks again, my dear readers. Please keep those suggestions coming. I will try to live up to your expectations. Have a great Halloween, everyone!
Wow! A majority of my predictions made on this blog for the global semiconductor industry have so far turned out correct — in December 2007 and again in May 2008.
Recently, I’d done a check on where are we today, in May, and earlier, via a Webcast from Semiconductor International, I had mentioned about the semiconductors market situation. Around that time, I had attempted my hand at predicting the top 10 global semiconductor trends for 2008.
There have been several folks, who’ve contacted me via this blog. Each one of them has his and her opinion about the semiconductor industry, and now want me to take this up a little bit more ahead. Let’s see what more I can do!
While all of these makes me feel proud of having been spot on with my assessment of the global (and Indian) semiconductor industry, it should also serve as a warning for the global (and Indian) semiconductor industry — that it really needs to pull up its socks! It is not going to be an easy ride ahead!
For starters, you simply cannot wish away the rising oil prices. The oil prices impact will be immense, and DRAM and flash are still wobbling. Besides, the ASPs are a wobbly lot and will continue to remain so. Interestingly, several forecasts from various quarters have been revised or re-assessed. Didn’t you all see it coming?
I’d also like to touch upon the Indian semiconductor industry. In all likelihood, the wafer fab story has all but disappeared. Very few comments are now being made about the wafer fabs, although, how this topic was played up, rather, hyped up about a year ago is quite well documented. In fact, I’d also written about whether the timing was right for having fabs in India!
No, it is not a failure on part of the Indian industry or the India Semiconductor Association. Perhaps, we started on the fab path a bit too late! Let’s all accept that!! Having said that, if a wafer fab or two do start functioning in India later in 2009 or beyond, that would be simply great!
Yes, several solar fabs are coming up and investments in solar/PV are rising, as also in India, but that was along expected lines.
I’d mentioned earlier that investments in photovoltaics (PV) had eased the pressure on capital equipment makers and spend somewhat. In fact, 2007 is now well remembered as the year when the PV industry emerged as a key opportunity for the subsystems suppliers and provided a timely boost in sales for those actively addressing this market. Perhaps, here lies an opportunity for India! I’m repeating this to the extent of sounding boring.
Further, even though it has been quite a while since the Indian semicon policy was announced, some feel that India should continue to focus on design services and embedded — its well known strengths, rather than go after something as mature as wafer fabs. Also, why do we have to ‘force ourselves to think’ that we are good at product development? We are not! Yes, it can change, but that would need great effort on part of all industry stakeholders.
So, what next? For now, I will not try and predict again what’s the way ahead for the semiconductor industry, as I’ve recently done a self check on where the global semiconductor industry stands today. That assessment will be left for another day!
A very kind reader left a comment yesterday that he (or she?) spent three hours on my blog! I am simply overwhelmed and humbled!!
It has really been a pleasure writing and maintaining a semicon blog! Plenty such are around carrying very valuable information, and I salute those bloggers.
It is really tough to contend with all the other technology-related information, but then, semicon has its own charm, and its own set of dedicated readers — who DO go on to become extremely loyal.
I am even more touched by another request by a friend to list all the top articles I’ve written this year. Wow!!
It is very difficult for me to say, which ones are the best! However, I am listing the articles here. They all link back to CIOL. Of course, I’ve blogged here first, so, those who are familiar with my blog pieces, will identify them immediately.
Here goes then — starting from the latest back down to very late last year — in terms of relevance. Enjoy!
Semi trends 2008: Fab spend lower, ASPs stabilizing
The call on global fab spend was for a 10 percent reduction, and this is now getting to be closer to 20 percent.
UK, India aim for semicon collaboration
ISA-UKTI study examines collaboration scope between India and UK in design, applications and devices.
Dubai an emerging silicon frontier
The government of Dubai has set up the Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority (DSOA) as the engine for propelling Dubai into the knowledge economy.
Be parallel, or perish!
Parallelism offers new doors, and creativity is required to open these new doors, says Intel.
Altera first @ 40nm FPGAs
The company has announced two product lines — the Stratix IV FPGAs and the HardCopy IV ASICs.
Semicon likely to grow 12pc in 2008
If there will be an economic recession, the chip industry (but not all firms) is in the best shape possible to weather the ensuing storm.
India’s growing might in global semicon
India is fast becoming the world’s destination, and increasingly the source too, for semiconductors.
Fascinating developments in 22nm!
These augur well for the global semiconductor industry, even though the field could get much narrower.
Indian design services to touch $10.96bn by 2010
Total design services market in India is said to have grown at 21 percent year on year.
NXP India achieves RF CMOS in single chip
The entire analog and RF work done has been in Bangalore by NXP’s single-chip design team.
LabVIEW 8.5 delivers power of multicore processors
With LabVIEW, designers and engineers can assign different tasks on different cores — which are independent.
Multi-nationalization of product development process
Indian designers lead in transaction level design, and can play big role in EDA.
Can we expect exciting times in 2008? Some trends
Blurring lines between PMPs and PNDs, semicon rush or hush; Netscape’s end — all are in store!
Semicon outlook 2008: Global market likely to grow 6-11 percent in 2008
Some predictions are for 2008 to be flat year or a year of negative growth; EDA to grow 7.8pc!
That’s about it! If there’s anything I’ve missed out, kindly let me know. Thanks for all your continuing support, dear readers. It is very humbling and touching.
Future Horizons recently released the May WSTS results on the global semiconductor industry, which indicate that the chip market is slowly starting to buzz again. With the ‘hum back among the chips’, it was important for me to quiz Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO, Future Horizons, in the UK, to find out why this was happening!
Now then, why is the chip market exactly humming? What has actually happened? Well, nothing specific! It is merely an overall step-by-step general improvement in everything, helped along by the normal seasonal improvement in business in the second half of the year!
So many forecasters and firms have their own forecasts. What happens now if some of these forecasts are cut or revised? Will that affect the market overall market? The answer is simple — a forecast is simply just that — a forecast — not fact!
Penn says, “The market will judge whether the other forecasters’ analyses of the market were right, as it wll indeed judge whether we are right too!”
Earlier, I had written about Future Horizons forecasting 12 percent growth in 2008 for the global semiconductor industry. Keep an eye on that one!
Further, have the ASPs stabilized, as those are indeed a dodgy lot? Penn feels, “We believe yes, although, there will still be the normal month-on-month variations and wobbles.”
Now, where does all of this leave the DRAM and NAND markets? According to the forecast, prices have already stopped falling as fast as they were this time last year.
However, they do fall and will fall; this is what they do! The question is: by how much? In other words, is the current fall above or below the long-term trend line? This will be analyzed in the long run as well.
Finally, what’s happening with the semicon equipment capex? Again, it is continuing to fall! “Right now we are in the middle of an underinvestment period, which means a capacity shortfall in 12 month’s time,” notes Penn.
No ‘fab’ times for fab spends
Is the fab spend going to see any change then? Well, unfortunately, no luck there! At least, not yet. Penn adds that fab spend is lower than expected at the beginning of the year.
He says: “The call then was for a 10 percent reduction, and this is now getting to be closer to 20 percent. In fact, Mike Splinter of Applied Materials is quoted as saying that he thinks that fab spend will end up 30 percent down.”
It is good to see that the global semiconductor industry is starting to hum a little bit more than what it was doing last month. Sincerely hope that the rest of the year pans out well!