Global semi to grow 4.9 percent: Cowan

June 13, 2008

This is a new addition to the continuing coverage on the global semiconductor industry forecasts in form of a monthly update to the Cowan LRA Model’s global semiconductor sales forecast numbers.

According to Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, the “momentum indicator” dropped to 1.8 percent from March’s number of 6.1 percent; but still remains in positive territory.

Consequently, the updated forecast numbers increased very slightly from March’s results with the 2008’s sales forecast estimate increasing to $268.249 billion (from last month’s estimate of $267.318; up a modest 0.35 percent) thereby yielding a year-on-year (YoY) sales growth forecast estimate of 4.9 percent (up from last month’s sales growth forecast expectation of 4.6 percent).

This newly updated sales growth forecast estimate of 4.9 percent as per the Cowan LRA model compares quite favorably with both Gartner’s most recent forecast update of 4.6 percent and the WSTS’s Spring 2008 forecast update of 4.7 percent.

Cowan adds: “It should be highlighted that these Cowan LRA Model’s forecast numbers are a “snapshot in time” (for a given month) and will “change” as each new month’s results are made available and digested by the dynamic Cowan LRA Model as the year evolves.”

Cowan LRA model
A new semiconductor sales forecasting model has been developed to facilitate the determination of future global sales of the semiconductor industry. The Cowan LRA (Linear Regression Analysis) Model, which forecasts global semiconductor sales, is a mathematically based model that features statistical analysis of the past 24 years of historical, monthly global semiconductor sales numbers that are collected and published by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.

Mike Cowan is a 45-year semiconductor industry veteran. He has a 36-year history at IBM’s Microelectronics Division in East Fishkill, N.Y., where he was involved in many facets of semiconductor development and manufacturing engineering, including both technical and management responsibilities.

Over his last 10 years at IBM, as a senior technical staff member, he has been involved in strategy development and competitive analysis focused on the semiconductor industry, and has developed a number of top-down and bottom-up models to predict the dynamics of the semiconductor industry.

After retiring from IBM in 2002 he became an independent semiconductor industry analyst providing his monthly forecasts to The Semiconductor Reporter Web site from 2002-2006, and presently to Future Horizons.

May I also take this opportunity to welcome Mike Cowan on my blog.

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