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Global semicon sales forecast results: Cowan LRA model

August 6, 2009

Friends, carrying on with my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry, here’s the global semiconductor industry sales forecasts, by Mike Cowan. First of all, I would like to acknowledge Mike for sharing his findings and thank him for his continuous tracking of the semiconductor industry.

The just updated global semiconductor sales forecast estimates based upon the recently-published June 2009 actual sales number released last Monday by the WSTS (posted Aug. 3, on its website).

The table below details the latest, updated forecast numbers covering the next six quarters, that is, from 3Q09 through 4Q10, respectively.

As shown in the table the latest update to the year 2009 sales forecast estimate increased by +1.4 percent to $198.9 billion (compared to the previous month’s sales forecast estimate of $196.2 billion).

This updated 2009 sales forecast estimate corresponds to an yr-o-yr sales growth forecast estimate of -20 percent, which represents a slight improvement compared to last month’s sales growth prediction of -21.1 percent.Sources: Actuals => WSTS; Forecasts => Cowan LRA Model (August 2009)

It should be highlighted that June 09’s actual YTD sales ($95.927 billion) growth (compared to last June 08’s actual YTD sales of $127.508 billion) came in at -24.8 percent indicating that the model is projecting an improvement relative to today’s 2009 actual YTD sales growth number, for the end of the year.

Remember that the model is dynamic, that is, is recalculated each month as the year plays out; and therefore today’s updated full year sales growth prediction will not sit still but will evolve over the coming months.

Finally, the model also provides a sales forecast estimate for next month, namely for July. Thus, July’s (actual) sales forecast estimate is projected to be $15.221 billion, which corresponds to a 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $16.930B as normally published by the SIA.

In addition to running his forecasting model each month, Cowan also “keep tabs” on a wide range of other semiconductor industry watchers (including both WSTS and SIA bi-yearly forecasts), thereby tracking what their respective predictions are for 2009’s sales growth (compared to 2008).Source: Mike Cowan

The table (as well as distribution graphic) summarizes (pictures) the 2009 sales growth forecast estimates for 21 other market researchers (besides Cowan himself).

As shown in the table, ongoing revisions for each market analyst are listed along with the latest updates over the past month — three during this time period — highlighted as (<== UPDATE).

As is evident from surveying the numbers for the group included in the table, the most update 2009 sales growth predictions range is relatively broad but with a strong “central tendency” hovering around a decline of approximately 20 percent (six forecasters).

Cowan has also “extended” the model for an additional quarter (that is, through 4Q10) in order to get a preview of what the model had to “say” about a sales (and sales growth)forecast for the full year of 2010.Source: Mike Cowan

Thus, as shown in the table above — see the bottom three rows of (underlined) numbers — 4Q10’s sales forecast is projected to be $54.853 billion and the full year 2010’s sales forecast is forecasted to come in at $214.925 billion, which yields a 2010 year-on-year sales growth of 8 percent.

It should be mentioned that the WSTS’s and SIA’s 2010 sales growth forecasts are projected to be 7.3 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively. Therefore, looks like the model’s 2010 sales growth forecast is slightly more bullish than the two industry organizations’ forecasts reported back in (the beginning of) June, 2009.

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