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Global semicon sales forecast estimates based on Cowan’s LRA model

June 2, 2010

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Here are the latest forecast results for 2010 global semicon sales estimates associated with the forecasting model — the Cowan LRA model for predicting worldwide semicon sales.

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) today (6-02-10) posted the April 2010 actual sales numbers on its website. Consequently, this is the latest update to Mike Cowan’s forecast results as gleamed from running the Cowan LRA forecasting model incorporating the “actual” April sales.

The actual April global semiconductor sales as released by the WSTS came in at $23.385 billion, which is up 43 percent from last year’s April sales of $16.354 billion and down 11.9 percent from last month’s sales of $26.553 billion, (which was revised upward slightly from last month’s published sales of $26.533 billion).

Therefore, the latest updated 2010 sales number predicted by the Cowan LRA model is $301.865 billion corresponding to a year-over-year sales growth of 33.4 percent for 2010.

These latest sales and sales growth are up from last month’s reported forecast estimates of $294.981 and 30.3 percent, respectively. These upward results reflect the relatively strong April sales as reported by the WSTS.

The full complement of the latest sales and sales growths forecast estimates for 2Q, 3Q, 4Q and 2010 are summarized in the table below along with 1Q’s actual numbers.

Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

Additionally, the May 2010 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate is projected to be $22.743 billion, which would yield a May 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $24.227 billion, which is normally published by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) each month in order to characterize the semiconductor industry’s growth posture.

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