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Evolution of various semicon analysts growth forecasts for 2010

June 13, 2010

Earlier this month, Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, had provided me with the latest update on forecast results as gleamed from running the Cowan LRA forecasting model incorporating the “actual” April sales.

As a follow-on to his April 2010 global semiconductor forecast numbers, Mike Cowan constructed (and updated) a table (sourced from the GSA website in order to compare the latest 2010 sales growth forecasts from a large number of leading market researchers to his latest sales growth forecast estimate of 33.4 percent.

Notice that for the thirteen (13) yellow-highlighted market researchers shown in the attached table (including mine), 12 of the market watchers have increased their most recent forecast year-over-year sales growths to a range of 22.6 percent to 33.4 percent with a mean sales growth forecast of 28.7 percent (28.4 percent without Cowan’s forecast number).

As revealed in the table, Cowan’s most recent 2010 sales growth forecast estimate is the most bullish of the bunch (at least for this month; stay tuned for my monthly forecast numbers as the year plays out!).

Also note that the just published (last week – June 8 and 10, respectively), WSTS and SIA Spring 2010 forecast sales growth results for 2010 are included in the table.

Source: Cowan's LRA model.

Source: Cowan's LRA model.

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