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Cowan LRA model: Time to “think about” June 2010 global semicon sales (and 2Q10 also)!

July 19, 2010 Comments off

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Mike Cowan has shared with us an additional feature of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting worldwide semi sales; namely, the capability to provide a “look ahead” scenario analysis for 2010’s global semi sales forecast update as a function of next month’s (in this case June’s) actual sales normally published by the WSTS (expected on Thursday, August 5, 2010).

The specifics of the scenario analysis are discussed in the following paragraphs and detailed in the tables.

In order to illustrate this capability, Cowan selected a possible range in June 2010 sales — in this particular scenario, a range from $24.29 billion to $29.79 billion in increments of $0.5 billion — as listed in the first column of the table included below.

This chosen range of actual sales is “centered around” the actual June sales forecast estimate of $28.291 billion as determined by last month’s May run of the model. The corresponding June 3MMA sales forecast estimate is $25.230 billion.

The overall year 2010 sales forecast estimate for each assumed, estimated sales number of the selected range of June actual sales is calculated by the model, and is shown in the second column of the table.

The third column reveals the resulting yr-o-yr sales growth estimates compared to year 2009 actual sales (of $226.3 billion).

Finally, the fourth and fifth columns show the corresponding 3MMA, three Month Moving Average, sales estimate and the associated yr-o-yr sales growth relative to June 2009’s 3MMA sales (of $17.483 billion), respectively.

Table I: Cowan LRA Model
Sources: Cowan LRA Global Semiconductor forecasting model and SIA/WSTS.

Sources: Cowan LRA Global Semiconductor forecasting model and SIA/WSTS.

Therefore, as the table reveals, depending on the actual WSTS to-be-released June 2010 global semiconductor sales number, the forecasted 2010 sales estimate, as determined by the model, could vary between $296.01 billion and $307.60 billion with the corresponding 2009=>2010 sales growth estimate varying between 30.8 percent and 35.9 percent, respectively. Read more…
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