Home > Cowans LRA model, global chip market, global semiconductor industry, global semiconductor market, Mike Cowan, Semiconductors, WSTS > Cowan’s LRA model: Actual July 2010 global semicon sales $24.57bn; down 9.5 percent from last month (June)

Cowan’s LRA model: Actual July 2010 global semicon sales $24.57bn; down 9.5 percent from last month (June)

September 1, 2010

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

The WSTS posted the July 2010 global semiconductor sales report (Historical Billings Report, HBR) on its website this Wednesday.

Therefore, with the WSTS having released its actual July 2010 global semiconductor sales number Cowan has provided the latest monthly update to the Cowan LRA Model’s derived forecast results. The updated forecast numbers for 3Q, 4Q and 2010 “kicked up” slightly from the previous month’s forecast estimates.

The actual July 2010 global semiconductor sales announced by the WSTS came in at $24.568 billion which is:

* 28.1 percent higher than 2009’s July sales of $19.175 billion;
* Down 9.5 percent from last month’s (June) sales of $27.153 billion;
* And higher (by $1.180 billion, or up 5.0 percent) compared to last month’s (June’s projection) sales forecast estimate for July, that is, $23.388 billion;
* The Cowan LRA Model’s Momentum Indicator, MI, went positive (+5.0 percent) compared to last month’s minus posture (-4.0 percent), summarized below.

July 2010’s actual semiconductor sales (of $24.568 billion) came in higher (by $1.180 billion) than the model’s last month’s July 2010 sales forecast estimate (of $23.388 billion) representing a plus 5.0 percent delta comparing July 2010’s actual sales number (published by the WSTS) to the projected forecast estimate “put forth” by the Cowan LRA forecasting model and reported last month. This percent delta represents the Cowan LRA Model’s MI.

The MI is defined as the percent difference between the actual sales for a given month — in this case July 2010’s just published actual global sales of $24.568 billion and the forecasted sales estimate for July 2010, that is, $23.388 billion, which was calculated and published last month.

The MI can be either positive or negative and is a measure of the percent deviation of the actual monthly sales number from the previous month’s prediction derived by the model’s linear regression analysis of the past 26 years of historical, monthly global “sales experience.”

Note => August 2010’s Sales Forecast Estimate is projected to be $25.448 billion.

Latest monthly update
The latest monthly update to 2010’s global semiconductor sales forecast estimate as determined by the Cowan LRA forecasting model notched up to $305.729 billion corresponding to a projected 2010 year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of 35.1 percent.

These latest forecasted 2010 sales and sales growth estimates increased slightly from last month’s reported sales and sales growth forecast estimates of $303.914 and 34.3 percent, respectively.

Thus. the full complement of the latest, updated sales and sales growth forecast estimates for 3Q, 4Q and 2010 are detailed in the table below along with the 1Q’s and 2Q’s actual reported sales numbers.

Table 1: Latest Cowan LRA model’s global semiconductor sales and growth forecast estimates

(Based on WSTS’s July 2010 global semiconductor sales, as reported On 9-01-10).
Sources: WSTS and Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (Sept 2010)
Sources: WSTS and Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (Sept 2010)
The second table shows the corresponding results from last month’s model run in order to compare the sequential forecast estimate numbers, namely July versus June.

Table 2 – Previous month’s Cowan LRA model’s global semiconductor sales and growth forecast estimates
(Based on WSTS’s June 2010 global semiconductor sales, reported on 8-03-10)
Sources: WSTS and Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (August 2010).

Sources: WSTS and Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (August 2010).

Additionally, next month’s (August 2010) global semiconductor sales forecast estimate is projected to be $25.448 billion which would “translate” to an August 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $25.723 billion assuming NO (or very minor) revisions in either June or July’s sales numbers as part of the WSTS’s August sales report.

The 3MMA sales is normally published by the SIA (using WSTS sales numbers) as part of its monthly press release that characterizes the semiconductor industry’s monthly sales and sales growth posture. The SIA’s August 3MMA press release is scheduled to be announced on Monday, October 4th, 2010.

Analysts’ watch
Cowan has also provided additional forecast-related results, including the latest update to my tracking of various market watchers 2010 sales growth expectations.

Various semicon market watchers sales growth forecasts for 2010  (as of 9-01-10). — ranked low to high

Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

Also, here’s a table on the evolution of various semicon market analysts’ sales growth forecasts for 2010.
Evolution of various semicon market analysts’ sales growth forecasts for 2010 (as of 9-01-10)
Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

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