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Cowan LRA model’s 2010 semicon sales growth forecast estimate: How does it ‘stack up’ against other prognosticators?

September 11, 2010

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Cowan routinely tracks how the Cowan LRA Model sales growth forecast (each month)  compares to a wide range of other major semiconductor market watchers in order to monitor how the model’s latest monthly result “stacks up” against the competition, that is, the 14 other prognosticators he routinely monitors.

The table below summarizes the latest sales growth forecast expectations of these 14 other semiconductor industry forecasters, thus comparing Cowan’s forecast number to the rest of the crowd.

Source: Cowan's LRA model.

Source: Cowan's LRA model.

Cowan also updates his forecast numbers each month immediately following the WSTS release of its monthly actual sales numbers in order to “dynamically” predict the industry’s sales posture.

Consequently, the sales and sales growth output of the monthly model run does NOT “sit still” as highlighted below:

THE Cowan LRA model for forecasting global semiconductor sales — ‘divining’ (mathematically) the future from the past:

* It should be emphasized that each month’s actual global sales number published by the WSTS is a “lagging indicator” since it is released a full month after the fact.

* The Cowan LRA Model, however, “turns” this lagging actual monthly sales into a “leading indicator” by virtue of its near-term forecasting capability looking out over the next five quarters.

* This is the “beauty” of the model and, therefore, makes it dynamic in the sense that it can be run each month utilizing the most recent actual global semiconductor sales number published by the WSTS. Thus, it allows “rigorous tracking” of the near-term sales forecast outlook for the global semiconductor industry on an “almost” real-time basis.

* Consequently, the model’s monthly sales forecast does not “sit still” but “evolves” with each succeeding month’s latest published sales number.
Source: Cowan's LRA model.

Source: Cowan's LRA model.

Since conditions change rapidly and unexpectedly in the semiconductor industry, industry market forecasters are hard pressed to keep up with these changes.

How can industry management be sure that a sales forecast issued two, three, or more months ago is still valid and relevant to what’s happening in today’s global semiconductor market?

In order to illustrate the “does not sit still” principal embedded in the monthly update to my forecasting methodology, please see the graphic here that is showing the month-to-month evolution of year 2010 sales and sales growth forecast estimates as determined by the model.
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  1. Mike Cowan
    September 12, 2010 at 3:27 pm

    For a write-up and report on the latest Cowan LRA Model’s forecast results send an e-mail to mikedcowan(at)verizon(dot)net and I will dispatch it to interested readers.

    Mike Cowan, S/C Industry Analyst and Developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global S/C sales.

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