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Overview of emerging power management opportunities

September 19, 2010 Comments off

First, I must thank my friends, Lou Hutter, SVP and GM, Analog Foundry Business Unit, and Aabid Husain, VP of sales and marketing, from Dongbu HiTek Semiconductor, for sharing the presentations made during an EE Times virtual conference on emerging power management opportunities held on Sept. 16.

The conference participants were:
* Stephan Ohr, panel moderator and research director, Analog and Power Semiconductors, Gartner Inc.
* John Pigott, Freescale fellow, and analog IC guru and designer, Freescale Semiconductor.
* Ralf J. Muenster, director strategy and business development, National Semiconductor.
* Wayne Chen, VP for Technology and Operations, Triune Systems.
*  Lou N. Hutter, SVP and GM, Analog Foundry Business Unit, Dongbu HiTek Semiconductor.

Gartner’s Ohr started by indicating Gartner’s position on power management products. The standard analog ICs were a $15.2 billion market globally in 2009. Voltage regulators made up $7,394 billion, amplifiers $2,675 billion, data converters $2,567 billion, other analog $1,331 billion, and interface ICs $1,198 billion, respectively.

Voltage regulators – power management ICs accounted for 48.8 percent of the analog market. Voltage regulators continue to show strongest growth, growing at a CAGR of 11.1 percent for the period 2009-2014.

Power management ICs forecast
The global revenue forecast for power management ICs by market segment is as follows:

Military and aerospace:
This is likely to grow at a CAGR of 3.2 percent during 2009-14.
Industrial/medical: This is likely to grow from $1,118 million in 2009 to $1,779 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 9.7 percent.
Automotive: This is likely to grow from $415 million in 2009 to $622 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 8.4 percent.
Communications: This is likely to grow from $529 million in 2009 to $988 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 13.3 percent.
Wireless: This is likely to grow from $1,353 million in 2009 to $2,149 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 9.7 percent.
Storage: This is likely to grow at a CAGR of 13.3 percent during 2009-14.
Computing: This is likely to grow from $2,114 million in 2009 to $4,013 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 13.7 percent.
Consumer: This is likely to grow from $1,627 million in 2009 to $2,564 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 9.5 percent.

Server and wired communications remain the biggest drivers.

Emergence of BCD technology
Lou Hutter from Dongbu HiTek discussed the technology considerations for emerging power management markets. He focused on the emergence of BCD (Bipolar/CMOS/DMOS) technology.

There are multiple benefits of BCD technology. These include integration of bipolar, CMOS, and DMOS components. It enables the integration of logic, analog control, and power on same die. It also enables high-and low-voltage, and high-and low-power functions on same die. BCD further enables reduced chip count, and improves reliability through fewer package interconnects. It also enables reduced BOM costs.

Emerging markets, such as automotive, solar and energy harvesting, stand to benefit from BCD. Dongbu is offering the 0.18um platform, which boasts of IP portability and more. Dongbu is offering the BD180LV-30V power process (Epi), to be followed by the BD180LV-30V power process (Non-Epi) in 3Q10, the BD180X 40-60V power process in 4Q10, and finally, the HP180 precision analog in 2Q11.

Hutter explained the BD180LV-30V Optimized Power and BD180X – 60V Optimized Power processes. Optional modules in Dongbu Hitek’s BCD technology include Schottky Diode, thick Cu, PLDMOS, NVM, low power CMOS, low noise CMOS, respectively. Read more…

Cowan LRA model: Overview plus latest global semicon sales forecast numbers

September 19, 2010 Comments off

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

August 2010’s ‘actual’ global semiconductor sales numbers are scheduled to be released by the WSTS, namely the August HBR (Historical Billings Report) on or about October 4.

In anticipation of the WSTS release Cowan has shared an analysis feature of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting worldwide semiconductor sales; namely, the ability to provide a ‘look ahead’ scenario analysis for 2010’s global semiconductor sales forecast as a function of next month’s (in this case August’s) actual global semi sales estimate.

The specifics of the scenario analysis are presented in the following paragraphs and detailed in the scenario analysis matrix table provided here.

Source: Cowan's LRA Model.

Source: Cowan's LRA Model.

In order to demonstrate this capability, Cowan has selected a range in possible August 2010 sales; in this particular scenario analysis, a sales range from $23.95 billion to $26.95 billion in increments of $0.5 billion was chosen as listed in the first column of the table.

This estimated range of actual sales is ‘centered around’ the actual August sales forecast estimate of $25.448 billion as determined by last month’s (July) run of the model. The corresponding August 3MMA sales forecast estimate that the model put forth is $25.723 billion.

The overall year 2010 sales forecast estimate for each assumed estimated August sales number over the selected range of August actual sales estimates is calculated by the model, and is shown in the second column of the table.

The third column reveals the resulting yr-o-yr sales growth estimates compared to year 2009’s actual sales (of $226.3 billion).

The fourth and fifth columns show the corresponding three Month Moving Average (3MMA) sales estimate and the associated year-on-year sales growth relative to August 2009’s 3MMA sales (of $19.381 billion), respectively.

Finally, the sixth column lists the associated Momentum Indicator (MI), which is defined and discussed below.

July 2010’s actual semiconductor sales (of $24.568 billion) came in higher (by $1.180 billion) than the model’s last month’s July 2010 sales forecast estimate (of $23.388 billion) representing a plus 5 percent delta comparing July 2010’s actual sales number (published by the WSTS) to the projected forecast estimate ‘put forth’ by the Cowan LRA forecasting model and reported last month. This percent delta represents the Cowan LRA Model’s MI.

The MI is defined as the percent difference between the actual sales for a given month — in this case July 2010’s just published actual global sales of $24.568 billion and the forecasted sales estimate for July 2010, that is, $23.388 billion, which was calculated and published last month.

The MI can be either positive or negative and is a measure of the percent deviation of the actual monthly sales number from the previous month’s prediction derived by the model’s linear regression analysis of the past 26 years of historical, actual monthly global “sales experience” as gathered and published, each month, by the WSTS.

Note: August 2010’s sales forecast estimate is projected to be $25.448 billion. Read more…

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