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June 2011 global semicon sales expectation for 2011: Cowan LRA model

July 17, 2011 Comments off

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

June 2011’s “actual” global semiconductor sales number is scheduled to be released by the WSTS, via its monthly HBR (Historical Billings Report), on or about Friday, August 5th. The monthly HBR is posted by the WSTS on its website.

In advance of the upcoming June sales release by the WSTS, Mike Cowan will detail an analysis capability using the Cowan LRA forecasting model to project worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011; namely, the ability to provide a “look ahead” scenario for year 2011’s sales forecast range as a function of next month’s (in this case June’s) “actual” global semiconductor sales estimate.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

The output of this “look ahead” modeling capability is captured in the scenario analysis matrix displayed in the table below. The details of these forecast results are also summarized in the paragraphs immediately following the table.

In order to facilitate the determination of these “look ahead” forecast numbers, an extended range in possible June 2011’s “actual” sales is selected a-priori; in this particular scenario analysis, a June 2011 sales range from a low of $27.935 billion to a high of $30.935 billion, in increments of $0.250 billion, was chosen as listed in the first column of the table.

This estimated range in possible “actual” sales numbers is “centered around” a projected June sales forecast estimate of $29.435 billion as gleamed from last month’s Cowan LRA Model run (based upon May’s WSTS published “actual” sales number). The corresponding June 3MMA sales forecast estimate is projected to be $25.445 billion. (NOTE – assumes no, or minor. revisions in either April or May’s previously published “actual” sales numbers released last month by the WSTS).

The overall year 2011 sales forecast estimate for each one of the assumed June sales over the pre-selected range of ‘actual’ sales estimates is calculated by the model, and is shown in the second column of the table. Read more…

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