Updated global semicon sales forecast 2011’s estimate falls $2.74 billion


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

On Wednesday, Nov. 2nd, 2011, the WSTS posted its Sept. 2011’s HBR (Historical Billings Report) on its website thereby facilitating the calculation of the monthly update for the latest global semi sales forecast estimates for 2011 and 2012 via exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

These latest forecast results reflect September 2011’s actual monthly sales and include revisions to previous months’ reported sales numbers. According to the WSTS’s September HBR, September’s actual global semiconductor sales came in at $29.442 billion with a corresponding September 3MMA sales of $25.764 billion.

It should be highlighted that two of the previous eight months (January through August), namely July and August, experienced very minor sales revisions from last month’s published HBR. Thus, the YTD cumulative global semiconductor sales through September totaled $227.852 billion.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.
Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

This represents a 2011 YTD sales growth of 2.2 percent compared to the same time period in 2010 when September 2010’s YTD sales were $222.853 billion. This continues a downward trend in the month-to-month 2011 YTD sales growth numbers from the beginning of the year as shown in the table here.

The Cowan LRA model’s sales forecast estimates for the month of September as determined by last month’s model run were $31.528 billion (actual) and $26.413 billion (3MMA), respectively. Consequently, the model’s September sales MI (Momentum Indicator) came in at minus 6.2 percent which marginally improved from last month’s sales MI of minus 7.5 percent.

This indicates (mathematically speaking) that semicon industry’s Sept.’s actual sales came in $1.959 billion lower than the model’s previous month’s forecasted expectation. This suggests 2011’s sales growth could continue to trend downward for remainder of this year relative to this month’s 2011 sales growth expectation of 3 percent as discussed below.

Plugging the latest actual sales numbers abstracted from Sept. HBR into Cowan LRA forecast model produced the following updated sales and sales growth forecast estimates for the final quarter of 2011 as well as for all four quarters of 2012 and full years.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.
Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

The key take-aways from comparing the latest forecast expectations versus the previous month’s projections (as displayed in the above table) are highlighted below:
* 2011’s updated global semiconductor sales forecast estimate fell by $2.740 billion to $307.258 billion (from last month’s sales forecast estimate of $309.998 billion).
* Correspondingly, 2011’s sales growth forecast estimate dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 3.0 percent (from last month’s 3.9 percent sales growth forecast estimate).
* October 2011’s actual sales forecast expectation is expected to come in at $25.622 billion which corresponds to an October 3MMA sales estimate of $26.487 billion assuming no (or very minor) sales revisions to either August or September’s published actual sales compared to September’s just published HBR by the WSTS.
* 2012’s global semicon sales forecast estimate fell by $4.867 billion to $330.759 billion (from last month’s sales forecast estimate of $335.627 billion).
* Correspondingly, 2012’s sales growth forecast estimate dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 7.6 percent (from last month’s 8.3 percent sales growth forecast estimate).

Major high level results => sales and sales growth expectations for both 2011 and 2012 continue to systematically decrease over the previous six month’s predictions put forth by the Cowan LRA forecast model as highlighted in  the table below:

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.
Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Next month’s Cowan LRA Model’s forecast update which will reflect October 2011’s actual global semi sales is anticipated to be available on or about Tuesday, Dec. 6th, 2011 following the posting of the Oct. HBR by the WSTS on its website.

Published by Pradeep Chakraborty

My blogs have so far won 19 titles – 18 global and 1 national. Off these: * Ten are for Pradeep’s Point. * One for Pradeep’s TechPoints. Pradeep Chakraborty’s Blogs – Pradeep’s Point and Pradeep’s TechPoints have so far won 11 awards – 10 international and 1 national: PRADEEP’s POINT World’s Best Blog in Electronic Hardware — Electronics Weekly, UK (Dec. 2008). Honorable Mention for Best Technology Blog, Blognet Awards (Feb. 2009). Winner, Best Tech Site, Green Gadget, US (Oct. 2011) Blog Influencer, Gorkana, UK (June 2012) Best Blog, Elite Techno, US (April 2015) Best Blog, Online Geeks, US (April 2016) Featured Blog, Beyond-Innovation, USA, July 2016. Best Tech Blog, Indywood Media Excellence Award 2016, Ramoji Film City, Hyderabad, India, Sept. 2016. Top Blog for Design and Verification, AMIQ Consulting, Romania, Feb. 2017. Featured Site, Engineers Tribune, USA, May 2020 PRADEEP’s TECHPOINTS Pradeep’s TechPoints – Best Blog, Electronics, Sixty Second Tech / Silicon Expert, July 2018. That makes 11 awards in a row! 🙂 Ten global, and one local! 😉 My other blogs have won eight awards so far: PC’s Electronic Components Blog — Top Resource for Electrical Engineers, ElectricalEngineeringSchools.org, USA, July 2013. PC’s Electronic Components Blog — The 101 Best Resources for Electrical Engineers, Pannam Imaging, USA Aug. 2014. PC’s Electronic Components Blog — Featured Blog, InsideTechKnow, USA, Feb. 2015. PC’s Electronic Components Blog — Featured Blog, Online Geeks, USA, April 2016. PC’s Electronic Components Blog — Featured Site, Xploreengineering.org, USA, Oct. 2017. PC’s Electronics Blog — Featured Site, XploreEngineering.org, USA, in 2015. PC’s Semiconductors Blog — Top Digital Media Blog, Online IT Degree, USA (Nov. 2010). PC’s Telecom Blog — Best VoIP Blogs, HostedSwitch, USA. So, that makes it 19 awards, starting 2008! It’s been quite a journey!! 😉 Thanks to everyone, for your consistently great support and best wishes! 🙂

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