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Update to Cowan LRA model’s global semicon forecast numbers 2011/2012

December 6, 2011 Comments off

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

The WSTS posted the October 2011 HBR on Saturday, Dec 3rd, 2011. Consequently, based upon the latest sales numbers availability (through Oct 2011), Cowan has generated updated sales and sales growth forecast numbers for 2011 and 2012 as summarized in the table here:

Sources: WSTS & Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (Dec. 2011).

Sources: WSTS & Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (Dec. 2011).

Major high level result: The forecasted sales and sales growth expectations for both 2011 and 2012 have continued to systematically decrease over the past seven month’s predictions put forth by the Cowan LRA forecast model as highlighted in the table below:

Source: Monthly Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

Source: Monthly Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

The following table, given below, summarizes/compares the recent (last two) forecast pronouncements by the indicated forecasters.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

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