Global semicon sales to reach $302.02 billion in 2013: Cowan LRA model


This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

With the ‘closing out’ of the final, overall sales result for 2012 by the WSTS, the Cowan LRA model for forecasting global semiconductor sales has been updated to include the full complement of 2012’s monthly sales numbers, thereby incorporating 29 years of historical, global semiconductor (actual) sales numbers as gathered, tracked and published each month by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.

The necessary mathematical computations required to update the complete set of linear regression parameters embedded in the Cowan LRA forecasting model have been carried out.

The newly derived set of linear regression parameters reflect 29 years (1984 to 2012) of historical global semiconductor sales numbers as a basis of predicting future quarterly and full year sales and sale growth forecast expectations by exercising the Cowan LRA model.

Therefore, the table given here summarizes the model’s latest 2013 sales and sales growth expectations as a function of the model’s range (low, expected and high) for January 2013′s sales forecast estimates as generated by the newly, updated model’s linear regression parameters.

Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.
Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

It is estimated that in 2013, the global semiconductor industry is likely to reach $302.022 billion, a growth of 3.6 percent.

Note that next month’s forecast will be based on January 2013’s actual sales number, which is anticipated to be released by the WSTS at the end of the first week in March. Once posted, the model will be rerun to yield the quarterly and full year sales, and sales growth expectations for 2013, respectively.

Published by Pradeep Chakraborty

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5 thoughts on “Global semicon sales to reach $302.02 billion in 2013: Cowan LRA model

  1. Thanks Pradeep, for adding the italicized sentence (immediately below the table to my write-up that I provided you and that you replicated for inclusion in your blog. The sentence adds value to my write-up. Thanks for providing your “value add” to my write-up.

    1. Hi Madelaine -i have read your comment a number of times and,for the life of me, cannot understand what you are trying to say – namely, what is the message you are attempting to convey? Mike Cowan

    2. Pradeep – the above “comment” from “Madelaine” is pure, unadulterated SPAM. This can be easily ascertained by “googlling” the entire sentence and seeing how many times it “pops up” in other blogs. Looks like your “censoring” skills need to be updated!!!

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