Here are highlights of the Union budget 2013-14 presented by P. Chidambaram, union Finance minister, Government of India. Also, is there finally, some hope for the Indian semiconductor industry?
* Doing business with India should be easy, friendly and helpful.
* Foreign investments must be encouraged.
* Accelerating growth is the main goal.
* Need to encourage FDI in consonance with economic priorities.
* To target $1 trillion in infrastructure in the 12th plan.
* There are incentives for semiconductor wafer fab manufacturing.
* There will be appropriate incentives for the semiconductors industry, including zero customs duty on plants and machineries.
* To increase allocation for science and atomic departments.
* Indian Institute of BioTechnology to be set up at Ranchi.
* Non-conventional wind energy sector needs help.
* Will encourage cities to take up waste-energy projects through PPPs.
* Plan being developed for Chennai-Bangalore industrial corridor.
* Preparatory work started for Bengalooru-Mumbai Industrial Corridor.
* To launch two new industrial cities in Gujarat and Maharashtra.
* Propose to continue with the Technology Upgradation funds scheme for the textile sector.
* India’s first women’s public sector bank to be set up.
* Woman’s bank license to be in place by October, 2013.
* All PSU banks branches to have ATMs by March, 2014.
* Zero customs duty for electrical plants and machinery proposed.
* Higher customs duty on set-top boxes.
* To provide more than Rs 4200 crore for medical studies.
* To allocate Rs 1106 crore for alternative medicine industry.
* To allocate 100 crores to AMU, BHU, TISS-Guwahati and INTACH.
* Government to set up National Institute of Sports Coaches in Patiala.
* To expand private FM radio to 294 cities.
* To auction 839 licenses for FM network to cover all India.
* Government to construct power transmission system from Srinagar to Leh at the cost of Rs 1,840 crore, Rs 226 crore provided in current budget.
* Mobile phones priced more than Rs. 2,000 will see duty raised by 6 percent.
* Extend tax benefit to electrical vehicles.
* A company investing Rs 100 crore or more in plant and machinery in April 1, 2013 to March 31, 2015 will be allowed 15 percent investment deduction allowance apart from depreciation.
* SEBI to simplify KYC norms governing foreign investors.
* SEBI will simplify procedures for entry of foreign portfolio investors to invest in India.
* Higher outlay on waste management.
* Government to monitor cost of doing business in India.
* Zero customs duty proposed for electrical plants and machinery.
* Proposal to provide Rs. 800 crore for the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy for generation-based incentive for wind energy projects as the non-conventional wind energy sector deserves incentives.
* Government will provide low interest bearing funds from the National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF) to IREDA to on-lend to viable renewable energy projects. The scheme will have a life span of five years.
* Proposal to set apart Rs. 2,000 crore and asked the National Innovation Council to formulate a scheme for the management and application of the fund.
Coming to semiconductors, the world today is discussing the viability of 450mm fabs. I am well aware that Malcolm Penn has been pushing for 450mm fabs across Europe. I believe that one such fab will cost in the excess of $25 billion, if not more. So, who will invest that kind of money in India? Do we have clean water and 24-hour electricity supply in any state that’s required for such a fab? What will this so-called 450mm fab manufacture? Does the fab have a blueprint in place? Well, have we even addressed any of these questions?
This is a continuation of the previous post based on the recent India visit of Hanns Windele, VP Europe and India, Mentor Graphics, where he met key industry figures in a session organized by the India Semiconductor Association. Windele is standing sixth from left, and Poornima Shenoy, president, ISA is standing fifth from right.
Multimode, multicorner tools
Windele mentioned that in every likelihood, another new routing tool would be coming in once the industry enters the 45nm/32nm space. “There is an increasing static timing analysis signoff complexity. The explosive growth in complexity requires multimode and multicorner tools,” he said.
Multicorner and multimode (MCMM) and manufacturing variability will drive the next generation place and route technology. Even in the low-growth markets, technical discontinuities create opportunities for market share changes. For instance, 65nm brings along more than 21 corners/modes scenarios; while 90nm has 10 corners, and 130nm only has four corners.
Therefore, another place and route tool will cover the upcoming MCMM problem. Even in low-growth markets, technical discontinuities create opportunities for market share changes.
Companies cannot afford the growing cost of EDA. Even the cost of design is growing exponentially, especially, verification, as well as embedded software development costs. Even the EDA revenue has been a flat 2 percent of the IC revenue. However, productivity has been growing as the number of engineers don’t seem to be multiplying in a great way. For example, the transistors produced per electronic engineer has been hearly four-orders of magnitude since 1985.
Showing optimism in recession
Turning to the ongoing recession, which has impacted the semiconductor industry, Windele said that 2009 will be most likely turn out to be the worst recession in the history of the global semiconductor industry.
“It seems to be heading that way. There is also a lot of reason for optimism. I feel that 2009 will be a lot milder than 1985 and 2001,” he said. Even the electronics indsutry’s growth rates have been slowing, decade by decade as well.
Therefore, with this ongoing global recession, why should we remain optimistic? Simple! A crisis translates into opportunities!!
Betting on India
No prizes for guessing where the most opportunities lie — India! Significantly, the ‘middle class’ in urban India becoming a majority. There is likely to be $3 trillion of discretionary spending by 2010. “People who can afford electronic and consumer goods will be growing further,” he added.
Windele cited ISA’s figures, which says that India’s electronics consumption is headed toward $300 billion by 2015. India’s electronic equipment consumption will likely grow at a CAGR of 30 percent through 2015. It was around $28 billion in 2005, and is likely to increase to $127 billion by 2010, and to $363 billion by 2015.
Yet another reason is the growing number of new cell phone subscribers in China and India, which will be 2x larger than the total US subscribers until 2011. Asia is, by far, the most attractive market for new cell phone sales. India will grow fastest, he added.
Comparing the downturns of the recent years, Windele noted that 2008 and 2009 look different than the other downturns. “There is hardly any inventory left in the industry. One prediction is: as the price upswing comes, prices in the semicon industry will go up very quickly,” he noted.
Seeds already being sown for recovery in 2010. Already, the industry has experiecned two years of severe price declines in memory. Further, systems will be re-designed to take advantage of lower bit prices of FLASH and DRAM.
There will be consolidation and reduced investment in semiconductor capacity in 2008 and 2009. Ramp-up of new system designs will likely happen in 2010 during the period of reduced semiconductor supply.
Concluding, he added that Mentor Graphics became the number 1 EDA company in Europe as the company managed the crisis better than some of our competitors.
Folks, here’s the full report on the India Semiconductor Association – Frost & Sullivan study on the Indian semiconductor industry. I’ve already provided my views on the Indian semiconductor industry report in an earlier post, for those who would like to know more.
First, the findings:
• The Total Semiconductor Market (TM) revenues poised to grow from $5.9 billion in 2008 to $7.59 billion in 2010. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 13.4 percent.
• The corresponding period is likely to witness a CAGR of 13.1 percent in the Total Semiconductor Available Market (TAM). TAM revenues is anticipated to climb to $3.24 billion in 2010 from $2.53 in 2008.
According to the study:
• Memory and MPU are the leaders in the TM and TAM revenues, respectively.
• IT/OA, wireless handsets and communications are the top three contributors to the TM revenues.
• IT/OA, wireless handsets and consumer are the mainstay of TAM revenue generation.
• Greater affordability of notebooks, netbooks, government IT initiatives, increased usage of memory cards to drive TM revenues from IT/OA. Ratio of desktops to notebooks reduces to 1:5
• Emphasis on rural mobile telephony and decline in handset pricesto drive demand; economically priced handsets in GSM and CDMA to witness higher growth. Mid priced handset segment, with enhanced features, to benefit.
• Rollout of 3G and WiMAX services to act as harbinger of associated infrastructure equipment TM. SDH 64 to increasingly replace SDH 4 and SDH 16. Increased manufacturing expected to favor TAM revenues.
• Evolving lifestyle expected to assist consumer electronics related semiconductor TM. DTH revolution creates demand for STB like never before. The market is expected to sustain as technology upgrades from MPEG2 to MPEG4.
• Projects like national ID cards, bank cards and kisan cards are likely to favor the semiconductor usage in emerging segment of smart cards.
• Low manufacturing index leads to opportunity loss of $3.37 billion semiconductor market revenues. This loss anticipated to increase to $4.35 billion by 2010.
• Immense, yet untapped, opportunities exist for semiconductors in STBs, LCD TVs, digital cameras and storage Flash memory markets.
• Decline in semiconductor product prices result in lower revenue realization; key semiconductor products impacted are memory, MCU and discrete. Increase in memory usage in a variety of products to offset revenue loss on accountof decline in prices.
• Increased usage of system-on-chip (SoC) leads to decline in the overall revenues. Though the decline is not proportionate to the reduction of components, the impact is significant.
• Higher penetration of notebooks to impact market for desktops and offline UPS
• Current slowdown to impact overall growth and manufacturing investment prospects for 2009; uncertainty in government decision-making adversely affects growth.
Some of the other forecasts of the report indicate that India will likely improve its share to 2.8 percent of the global semiconductor market by 2010. Also, the India market CAGR forecast is at 6.4 times the global market CAGR, over next two years !
Again, do not get carried away by these statistics!
Further, in an update to the 2007 forecast, the previous study had non-inclusion of select products segments such as digital cameras, power supplies, CFL, CCTV, PoS, Weighing Scale, etc., which have been now added. This update sees the entry of new players and an unprecedented expansion of the DTH market. Migration of select products manufacturing outside the country has also taken place.
The total TM and TAM revenue constituents (2008) are: TM revenues: $5,901.8 million; and TAM revenues: $2,531.8 million. Now, for the segment wise break-ups and segment drivers, respectively.
IT/OA semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $2,503.4 million; TAM revenues: $1,161.3 million.
* Notebooks, desktops and servers were the key contributors to the MPU, memory and ASSP TM revenues.
* Desktops are key revenue generators for MPU TAM revenues.
* CAGR for IT/OA is TM at 13.5 percent and TAM at 7.4 percent for 2008-10.
* Key drivers for TM are government IT initiatives, low priced notebooks, netbooks and storage flash memory; while low priced desktops and LCD monitors are the drivers for TAM.
Wireless handsets semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $1,738.3 million; TAM revenues: $791 million.
* DSP and ASSP to ride on growth of economically priced handsets in GSM and CDMA.
* Smartphones in GSM to drive growth of TM revenues for memory, DSP and ASSP.
* CAGR for wireless handsets is TM at 5.7 percent and TAM at 5.1 percent for 2008-10.
* Key drivers for TM and TAM include GSM handsets priced <$125 and between $125-250, as well as CDMA handsets priced $250 is the key driver.
Communications semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $754 million; TAM Revenues: $153.9 million.
* WiMAX BTS is the driver for ASIC market.
* Infrastructure equipment like WiMAX and STM were the key factors behind analog power’s TM and TAM revenues.
* Logic/FPGA rode on the STM and BTS markets.
* Low manufacturing index conspicuous in this key segment.
* CAGR for communications is TM at 27.9 percent and TAM at 64.1 percent for 2008-10.
* Key drivers for TM and TAM include the rollout of 3G, WiMAX and penetration of broadband services. For TAM, BTS, STM and WiMAX are the major drivers.
Consumer semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $432.9 million; TAM revenues: $165.6 million.
* ASSP market growth on account of penetration of LCD into CRT TVs, STBs and DVD players.
* Low manufacturing index indicates lost opportunity for semiconductor revenues.
* CAGR for consumer equipment is TM at 12.2 percent and TAM at 18.7 percent for 2008-10.
* Key drivers for TM include STBs, LCD TVs and digital cameras, while those for TAM include STBs, LCD TVs and water purifiers.
Industrial semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $144.9 million; TAM revenues: $106.7 million.
* Energy meters, UPS and weighing scales are the contributors to the MCUs.
* Discrete and analog power are omnipresent products across applications.
* CAGR for industrial electronics segment is TM at 12.5 percent and TAM at 14.9 percent for the period 2008-10.
* Key drivers for TM include online UPS, CFL, energy meters and power supplies. Those for TAM include energy meters, CFL and power supplies.
Automotive semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $76.5 million; TAM revenues: $50.8 million.
* The MCU market has high dependence on the EMS and body electronics markets
* The Nano car, statutory regulations on emission norms, and safety features are likely to sustain demand.
* CAGR for automotive electronics is TM at 23.1 percent and TAM at 24.8 percent.
* Key drivers include two-wheeler instrument clusters, EMS and immobilizers.
Other electronics semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $251.7 million; TAM revenues: $102.5 million.
* Applications like smart cards, and aerospace and defence are driving the ASSP TM and TAM revenues, respectively.
* CAGR for this segment is TM at 16.8 percent and TAM at 23.8 percent.
* Smart cards and government space research programs are the key drivers.
It is soon going to be a year since the semicon Web site was launched by CIOL. Over the past year, I have noted with delight the growing interest in the Indian semiconductor industry.
Here is a collection of the 10 best articles for my readers. All articles link to those appearing on CIOL.
1. Indian semicon industry: Early steps taken, miles to go!
The Indian semiconductor design industry had a turnover of US $3.2 billion in 2005 with an engineering workforce of around 75,000. It is estimated to reach US $43 billion by 2015 and provide jobs to 780,000 professionals with a CAGR of around 30 percent for this period.
2. Indian semicon special: Increasing brand value for semicon within India
S. Janakiraman, president and CEO –- R&D Services, Mindtree Consulting, and chairman, India Semiconductor Association (ISA), is quite bullish on the advantages of India and the opportunities provided in the Indian semiconductor industry. Here, he speaks on a host of topics, ranging from the outlook for next year, as well as the fab and semiconductor policies, Indian ecosystem, etc.
3. Indian semicon special: Is the timing right for having fabs in India?
It has been some months since the Indian government announced the semiconductor policy. Some fabs are on the way, and lot of CEOs and other industry leaders from leading global semiconductor majors have been visiting India lately.
4. Indian fab guidelines promise exciting times for semicon, electronics
India seeks investments in ecosystem units for LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, solar cells, photovoltaics, storage devices, advanced micro and nanotech products, etc.
5. Indian semicon policy ground breaking
These comments from Michael R. Splinter, president and CEO, Applied Materials, were enough to indicate how much the Indian semiconductor policy, announced recently by the government of India, has caught the attention of the global semicon majors.
6. Indian ecosystem will not enable faster product development cycles
The economy of scale may also not justify having a wafer fab facility to cater only to the Indian market, says Dr. H.V. Ananda, Synplicity.
7. India should be known for its semicon might
The semiconductor industry is poised for high growth and will make all round progress be in design or manufacturing or consumption. Issues to tackle are the rising costs and not yet conducive infrastructure.
8. ISA-F&S: India growing almost thrice as faster as global semicon
According to India Semiconductor Association (ISA) and Frost & Sullivan (ISA-F&S), India’s 2007 annual growth in semiconductor market is nearly triple the rate at which the global semiconductor market is expanding.
9. India ascends in the embedded value chain
Indian semicon, embedded design industry to grow from $3.25bn in 2005 to $14.42bn in 2010 and $43.07bn in 2015.
10. India rapidly becoming hub for embedded designs worldwide
India design services companies are involved in embedded hardware and software design in the latest embedded market segments such as automotive infotainment, digital security and surveillance.
I’d like to say a very big thanks to all of my readers. I am also working on another semicon special, which should be out next month on CIOL. The semicon special for 2008 — a collection of industry leading articles, will be online middle of next month.
S. Janakiraman, president and CEO –- R&D Services, Mindtree Consulting, and chairman, India Semiconductor Association (ISA), is quite bullish on the advantages of India and the opportunities provided in the Indian semiconductor industry. Here are some notes on the outlook for the Indian semiconductor industry in 2008.
Indian semiconductor industry to grow 25-35 percent in 2008
There has been an increasing trend of an increasing brand value for semiconductors within India. MNCs, especially are looking at semiconductor related outsourcing from India. We are also seeing lot of traction, from third-party service providers, like us — Mindtree, Wipro, Sasken, etc., as well as captive centers of MNCs like STMicroelectronics, NXP, etc.
In terms of growth plans, all leading MNCs, like NXP, Freescale, STMicroelectronics, etc., are planning to grow significantly from their India centers. They are strongly building partnerships with Indian designers.
From the design side, India is also seeing an increase in various activities, such as more complex analog designs and more complex digital designs. We are seeing more of physical designs happening, and even taking those designs up to the foundries are increasing as well. “We foresee 25-35 percent likely growth in the Indian semiconductor industry during 2008,” said Janakiraman.
Software is very critical to succeed. Various Indian providers, including Mindtree, are developing software for semiconductor-related products that are being designed by the overseas semiconductor companies.
Fab policy — More of ATMP
The fab policy announced by the government of India is really attractive and mostly on par with other countries. A semiconductor fab requires very high capital-intensive investment. In 2008, we will be probably seeing more of the assembly, testing, marking and assembly (ATMP) happening in India.
The fundamental fabs are still a little far away. Most companies are likely to start off by initially testing waters by making some level of investments in ATMP before moving on to fabs. One cannot also rule out the prospect of some leading Indian company investing in fabs.
Lot of the big MNCs have been moving to Fab-Lite, having already announced Fab-Lite strategies. They are moving to manufacturing to with people like TSMC, Chartered, etc. If manufacturing happens in the fabs, it would not be from any of the integrated device manufacturers (IDMs). It may also happen from Indian companies who are into manufacturing.
Electronics manufacturing has already moved on to the electronics manufacturing services (EMS) vendors. Similarly, chip vendors are also moving on to third-party providers. MNCs like TI, LSI Logic, etc., are moving away from manufacturing and moving that to Charter, TSMC, etc.
Fab companies will also look at India as the fab policy will look attractive to them. “Those questioning India’s need for fabs would feel terribly missing out on the opportunities currently being provided by India, by 2015,” said Janakiraman.
Product companies in India
Over the next one to two years, we are likely to see more product companies emerging from India. Companies like Tejas are already present in India. Down the line, this will percolate into semiconductors. Opportunities are bound to emerge. It means, first, there will be companies manufacturing electronics products, which will later move on to the emergence of semiconductor product companies.
As for Indian companies into manufacturing electronics products, the ISA chairman feels that there would be more of high-complexity, medium volume products. These would probably be manufacturing networking, automotive, navigation products, etc., which are more rich in software, but are medium volume in production.
Impact of semiconductor policy
According to Janakiraman, the interest in India has only increased since the announcement of the semiconductor policy. As per the announcement, the government of India will bear 20 percent of the capital expenditure during the first 10 years for units located inside SEZs and 25 percent for those located outside.
For semiconductor manufacturing (wafer fabs) plants, the policy proposes a minimum investment of US $625 million. The minimum investment for for ancillary plants is US $250 million. The government’s participation in the projects would be limited to 26 percent of the equity portion. The key benefit is the grant of the SEZ status.
The Indian semiconductor policy is applicable for manufacturers of all semiconductors, displays – including LCDs, organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs), plasma display panels (PDPs), and any other emerging displays, storage devices, solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro- and nanotechnology products; assembly and test.
India is now presenting a great opportunity to the world, in fact, offering triple advantages. India has a very rapidly growing domestic market, growing at a CAGR of 30+ percent. India has achieved global recognition for back-end services -– having become a proven case for IP, embedded systems and IC designs.
India is also an attractive destination for manufacturing investments. It further boasts of a highly skilled employee base, and a fast and upcoming modern infrastructure –- SEZs. India also enjoys proximity to the EU and the MEA markets. It also boasts of freight cost, said to be 20 percent cheaper than China, leading to faster delivery and lesser pipeline inventory.
Indian ecosystem maturing
India is aligning itself with the global semiconductor market by creating high value work in VLSI, and board design and embedded software. Companies with domain expertise are driving Indian businesses. India has become the world’s destination for semiconductor design and embedded software, and is increasingly becoming the source as well.
In terms of consumption, the India semiconductor total available market (TAM) revenues are likely to grow by 2.5 times, while the total market (TM) is estimated to double in revenues by 2009. India’s semiconductor market share is likely to be 1.6 percent of the global market by 2009 in comparison to 1.1 percent in 2006.
Regarding the growth drivers for electronics manufacturing in India, telecom and IT & OA (office automation) segments will account for almost two-thirds of the semiconductor TAM by 2009. Telecom’s share has been estimated to grow from 21.2 percent in 2006 to 41.1pc by 2009.
According to ISA estimates, TAM revenues are likely to grow by 2.5 times and TM revenues are likely to double their revenues by 2009 as against 2006. Growth of TAM revenues is 35.8 percent compared with just 26.7 percent for TM revenues, thereby signifying an increasing manufacturing index for different electronics products in India.
The decline in ASP (average selling price) of semiconductors and hence, of electronic products, is largely offset by the higher unit sales of different electronics end use products.
Indian electronics industry — 2010 scenario
India will have a very strong electronics scenario by 2010. The installed base of mobile phones will go up to 500 million. The installed base of PCs will move up to 65 million. The IT enabled services (ITeS) and software exports has been estimated at US $60 billion.
There will likely be about 40 million new Internet connections, with at least 50 percent of those being broadband connections. The nationwide TV broadcast is likely to become digital by 2015, beginning 2010. In that scenario, there would be significant opportunity for set-top boxes (STBs) consumption and manufacturing. There will also be an estimated over US $10 billion investment in e-governance initiatives and the national ID card.