Intersolar North America successfully concluded its seventh annual show in the heart of the United States’ largest solar market, California. More than 17,000 visitors from 74 countries visited 530 exhibitors.
The show had the latest innovations in the photovoltaic, energy storage, balance of systems, mounting and tracking systems, and solar heating and cooling market sectors.
It just shows how the USA has evolved as a leading market for solar PV over the years. One could feel USA creeping up on China! Which brings me to the other significant news.
Recently, there was news regarding the USA-China solar dispute. USA has won huge anti-dumping tariffs in the US-China solar panel trade case. A preliminary decision by the US Department of Commerce has imposed significant tariffs on Chinese solar modules in the anti-dumping portion of the case.
The decision has also closed SolarWorld’s “loophole,” which is said to have allowed Chinese module manufacturers to use Taiwanese cells in their modules, circumventing US trade duties.
Will this affect the Chinese PV module suppliers? Perhaps, not that much. Why so? China itself has a very huge domestic market for solar PV. They can continue to do well in China itself. It can also sell solar PV modules in India, as well, besides other regions in the Asia Pacific.
That brings me back to Intersolar North America 2014. Why was there such a low presence of Indian companies? The exhibitor list for the show reads only two — Lanco Solar Pvt Ltd and Vikram Solar Pvt Ltd. Where are the others?
If one looks at the Ministry for New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) website, there is a notification stating that a National Solar Mission (NSM) is being implemented to give a boost to solar power generation in the country. It has a long-term goal of adding 20,000 MWp of grid-connected solar power by 2022, to be achieved in three phases (first phase up to 2012-13, second phase from 2013 to 2017 and the third phase from 2017 to 2022).
Well, the MNRE has also put up a release stating complaints received about the non-function of the systems installed by channel partners. Without getting into details, why can’t Indian suppliers get to the ground and work up solidly? Some of the complaints are actually not even so serious. System not working. Channel partner not attending complaint! And, plant not working due to inverter (PPS) burnt down. These should be attended to quickly, unless, there is some monetary or other issue, which, at least, I am not aware of!
The CNA Corp.s Energy, Water, & Climate division released two studies earlier this week, which found that cost-effective options that power plants can use to cut water use can also help plants reduce CO2 emissions.
The first report, Capturing Synergies Between Water Conservation and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Power Sector, focuses on strategy recommendations based on analyses of water use and CO2 emissions in four case studies, which are detailed in the second report, A Clash of Competing Necessities: Water Adequacy and Electric Reliability in China, India, France, and Texas.
CNA’s Energy, Water, & Climate division released two studies, which found that cost-effective options that power plants can use to cut water use can also help plants reduce CO2 emissions.
“It’s a very important issue,” said lead study author Paul Faeth, director of Energy, Water, & Climate at CNA. “Water used to cool power plants is the largest source of water withdrawals in the United States and France, and a large source in China and India.”
“The recommendations in these reports can serve as a starting point for leaders in these countries, and for leaders around the world, to take the steps needed to ensure the reliability of current generating plants and begin planning for how to meet future demands for electric power.”
India needs to learn from the Intersolar North America show. It also needs to look carefully at CNA’s reports. It is always great and good work that attracts global attention. India has all of the requred capabilities to do so!
DP Electronics eK (Deutsche Power), based in Germany, with an office in Hong Kong, is showcasing power electronics products at Gitex 2013. It has assembling partners in Hong Kong, Hungary, China, Taiwan and Germany.
Helen Long, manager, International Affairs, said that the company’s mission is to be the best supplier of power solutions. The company will continue to tailor products for market needs, while maintaining high quality, integrated customer service and prompt delivery.
The cycle time for the development of new models of UPS has been rapidly shortening as the manufacturers take advantage of the latest advancements in the use of microprocessors (MPUs) and power semiconductor devices. Hence, the supplier’s products are also becoming lighter, smaller and increasingly intelligent, with a dramatic effect on cost reduction. DP Electronics’ range of UPS include over 60 models/ratings.
Some of its products include the DH series sine-wave inverter (1 KVA-2 KVA), suitable for small/medium home equipment, office and public devices, home lighting systems, fabrication and control systems, PCs, PoS devices, etc. The SOLO series simulated sine-wave inverters (1 KVA-2 KVA) is useful for tubelights, TVs. computers, stereos, PBXs, etc.
It is also offering solar panels (100W-300W), as well as off-grid and on-grid PV imverters with MPPT solar charger, and a PV charge controller. DP Electronics is also displaying optoelectronic LED lights for ceilings, corn ligts, warehouse lights, flood lights, spot lights and other lights of different concepts.
Among UPS, it is offering the XL Plus series line interactive UPS (650VA-3KVA), Elentra series line interactive sinewave UPS (1KVA-6KVA), Elektra series online high frequency UPS (1KVA-30KVA) and 1KVA~10KVA models. The Elektra series is available as online industrial grade UPS — 10KVA~60KVA models and 10KVA-3.5MVA models, respectively. Then, there is the Fuhrer series of modular online UPS from 10KVA~100KVA.
The supplier is also offering VRLA/SLA/GEL batteries in 2V/6V/12V types
Yesterday evening, the Indian Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has approved setting up of Information Technology Investment Region (ITIR) near Hyderabad.
The Phase I of this project will be from 2013 to 2018 and Phase II will be from 2018 to 2038. The Government of Andhra Pradesh has delineated an area of 202 sq. kms. for the proposed ITIR in three clusters/ agglomerations viz.:
(i) Cyberabad Development Area and its surroundings,
(ii) Hyderabad Airport Development area and Maheshwaram in the south of Hyderabad, and
(iii) Uppal and Pocharam areas in eastern Hyderabad. The ITIR will be implemented in two phases.
Next, the Government of India finalized the setting up of a ‘Ultra-Mega Green Solar Power Project’ in Rajasthan in the SSL (Sambhar Salts Ltd, a subsidiary of Hindustan Salts Ltd – a Central Public Sector Enterprise under the Department of Heavy Industry, Ministry of Heavy Industries & Public Enterprises) area close to Sambhar Lake, about 75 kms from Jaipur.
Further, India was recognized as ‘Authorizing Nation’ under the international Common Criteria Recognition Arrangement (CCRA) to test and certify electronics and IT products with respect to cyber security. India has become the 17th nation to earn this recognition.
Then again, the ‘HTML 5.0 Tour in India’ has now reached Hyderabad.
Also, India has offered to help Cuba develop its renewable energy resources. This has been conveyed to Marino Murillo, vice president of the Republic of Cuba at Havana, by Dr. Farooq Abdullah, Minister of New and Renewable Energy, during his trip to Cuba.
All of this is really brilliant stuff!
At least, I have never seen or heard about so much activity happening, especially in the electronics and solar PV sectors. One sincerely hopes that all of these initiatives will allow India to come to the forefront of the global electronics industry.
The spark seems to be coming back to the India electronics industry, after a very, very long wait! It is hoped that this stays on!!
300mm is the new 200mm, said GlobalFoundries’ David Duke, during a presentation titled ‘Used Equipment Market’ at the recently held Semicon West 2013 in San Francisco, USA. Used semiconductor equipment sourcing and sales is a very interesting challenge.
Qimonda, Spansion, Powerchip and ProMOS had jumpstarted the market. Now, there is a broadening user base. There is an unexpected uptake by analog and power device producers to achieve economies of scale. There has been legacy logic scaling. Also, the 200mm fabs are being upgraded to 300mm with used equipment. Many 300mm tools can “bridge” to 200mm easily.
Parts tools are seeding the ecosystem. Third parties are also able to support refurb as well as tool moves. However, we need more! Software licensing is becoming a smaller hurdle. There has been no over-supply yet!
So, what are the ‘rough’ rules of thumb for 300mm? First, there are approximately 1,500 individual tools in the open market. Few sellers know the values as the market is still developing. Twenty percent of the transactions drive 80 percent of sales. Today, the number of 300mm buyers is around 1/10th the number of 200mm buyers!
Lithography has been the biggest difference. Leading edge DRAM is far more expensive in lithography. Lithography has seen the most dramatic financial effects with explosive pricing in technology (immersion) and the need for capacity (two-three critical passes vs. one with dual/triple gate patterning. As of now, financial shocks and bankruptcies are the main drivers for used 300mm.
Next, 200mm is now the new 150mm! The 200mm OEM support is starting to dry up. It is nearly impossible to compete in productivity vs. 300mm. Oversupply is causing values to stay suppressed. The only bright spot being: there is still strong demand for complete fabs. The 200mm market split is roughly by 40 percent Asia and 60 percent rest of the world.
So, what are the likely alternative markets for 200mm and 300mm fabs? These are said to be MEMs and TSV, LEDs and solar PV.
That brings me to India! What are they doing about fabs over here? This article has enough pointers as to what should be done. Otherwise, the world is already moving to 450mm fabs! Am I right?
SEMI, USA recently hosted the seminar on ‘Convergence of PV Materials, Test and Reliability: What Really Matters?
Reliability in growing PV industry
Speaking on the importance of reliability to a growing PV industry, Sarah Kurtz, principal scientist, Reliability group manager, NREL, said that confidence in long-term performance is a necessity in the PV industry. Current failure rates are low. There is need to demonstrate confidence so that failure rates will stay low. There has been exponential growth of the PV industry so far. PV is a significant fraction of new installations. It now represents a significant fraction of new electricity generating installations of all kinds.
How does one predict the lifetime of PV modules? There has been a qualification test evolution for JPL block buys. Most studies of c-Si modules show module failures are small. Internal electrical current issues often dominate.
The vast majority of installations show very low PV module failure rates (often less than 0.1 percent). There has been evidence that PV is low risk compared to other investments. To sustain the current installation rate, we need to demonstrate confidence that justifies the annual investment of $100 million or so.
Critical factors in economic viability of PV
DuPont has broad capabilities under one roof. It offers materials, solar cell design, and processes integrated with panel engineering. Speaking about Critical factors in economic viability of PV – materials matter – Conrad Burke, global marketing director, DuPont PV Solutions, said that material suppliers have a distinct advantage to view trends. The industry can expect consolidation among large PV module producers and large materials suppliers.
There is an increasing dependence on materials suppliers for processes, tech support and roadmap. There is renewed attention to long-term reliability and quality of materials in PV products.
There is a race for survival among panel producers. There are dropping prices for solar panels, and quality is getting compromised. There are reduced incentives in established markets. The market will continue to grow. Key factors that determine investment return for PV include lifetime, efficiency and cost.
When materials fail, the consequences are dire. There are failures such as encapsulant discoloration, backsheet failure, glass delamination, etc. Average defect rates in new-build modules has been increasing. Significant number of PV installations do not deliver the projected RoI. The system lifetime is as important as cost and incentives.
Solar cell power continues to improve. There have been improvements from metal pastes and processes. Performance loss impacts the RoI. The US Department of Energy hired JPL to develop 30-year PV modules. Recent cost pressures have led to the dramatic changes in module materials and a lack of transparency.
Analyzing modules from the recent service environments show performance issues. Certification does not mitigate risk. Tests do not predict the actual field performance. He showed tier-1 solar panel manufacturing problems from China, Japan and the USA. Backsheet is critical to protect solar panels. Few materials have lengthy field experience. We will continue to see drop in prices for solar panels and opening of new markets. Focus for PV module makers will remain efficiency, etc.
According to Finlay Coville, VP and team leader, NPD Solarbuzz, full year end market PV demand during 2012 reached 29.05 GW. The demand is forecast to increase to 31 GW in 2013. China is expected to replace Germany as the leading market for the first time. The global market is likely to have a CAGR exceeding 15 percent, highlighting long term confidence in global PV adoption levels.
Supply vs. demand overview in 2012
The upstream c-Si module/thin-film panel suppliers produced 30.1 GW of new product in 2012. Combined with inventory levels through the value chain, this provided 31 GW of panels to the downstream channels. 29 GW was used for market demand, while 2 GW went to the downstream inventory.
Demand overview 2013
Year 2013 is shaping up as a 31 GW demand year under the most likely scenario. Over 50 percent of the end market demand is projected to come from China, Germany and North America (USA and Canada). 2013 will be a transition year for the emerging PV territories. Both the Middle East and Africa and Emerging Asia will likely reach 1 GW.
PV demand in 2012 accounted for approximately 30 percent of all PV installed globally. The industry growth in 2012 is positive, but set against a backdrop of an industry that had been accustomed to year-on-year growth often exceeding 100 percent. The industry is forecast to return to double digit growth.
PV scenario forecasting continies to show divergent outcomes in 2017. A high market demand scenario assumes a strong economic environment and aggressive PV policies by way of direct incentives and lower regulatory hurdles.
Five-year cumulative demand by geography
Cumulatively, global PV demand is forecast to exceed 230 GW over the five year period to 2017. China is forecast to install 51 GW accounting for over 20 percent. Europe will continue to offer strong regional PV market. North America and Japan will provide over 61 GW of demand. Emerging markets are projected to create over 25 GW of PV demand, more than 10 percent of the cumulative total to 2017.
By application segment, the ground-mount segment will remain the single largest segment over the five years. Residential and non-residential (commercial) segments will continue to be characterized by specific end-user requirements, different supply channels and routes-to-market for upstream suppliers.
The PV industry was configured to supply over 45 GW in 2012. The industry is likely to be in an over-capacity mode in 2013, with balanced supply/demand levels restored from 2015. Market share aspirations remain a key driver for PV manufacturers. During 2013 and 2014, the capacity taken offline is likely to be more than compensated for by newly ramped capacity.
With multi-domain c-Si module production, most panels had efficiencies in the 13-16 percent band during 2012. High efficiency concepts are not likely to strongly influence the module efficiency landscape during 2013 or 2014. If high efficiency cell types gain traction, the share of modules with efficiencies above 16 percent will increase.
In 2012, a wide range of efficiencies were produced, but with levels that do not compete with c-Si modules for space-constrained applications. The range of panels available in the 12-14 percent band is likely to grow strongly from 2015 as leading suppliers benefit from process improvements. Panels below 10 percent efficiency will become obsolete.
Despite end market growth expected, revenues available to each part of the value-chain will see strong declines Y/Y in 2013. This is due to the ASPs declining at a faster rate than the end-market demand growth, within a strong overcapacity environment. Revenues are also unlikely to recover for each value-chain segment until the 2016-2017 period.
What’s with prices?
2012 was the fourth year in a row that c-Si module prices declined and was the largest Y/Y decline. As capacity throughout the PV chain has increased, the oversupply has put further pressure on the ASPs. Declines in pricing occurred further upstream, at the poly, wafer and cell segments.
Tracking SAM revenues fron selling modules into downstream channels is becoming less important to the PV industry. as a number of module suppliers take on EPC and project developer roles.
PV equipment spending
As for PV equipment spending, the most likely forecast sees capacity being added by a select gtoup of tier 1 c-Si makers during 2014. The next cyclic downturn is forecast for 2016-2017. This assumes excess capacity is added in the next upturn.
If we look at the current scope of trade disputes, there are five major markets — EU, USA, India, Canada, China — investigating products being imported, with China featuring in most cases. Most disputes are being pursued by the internal bodies, but several have been referred to the WTO for review. A growing number of emerging PV regions already have domestic content incentives.
PV demand was 29 GW in 2012, and 2013 is forecast to tip 31 GW. 230 GW of new PV demand is forecast between 2013-2017, adding to the 100 GW at the end of 2012. Eighty percent of PV demand in 2013-2017 will come from the top 10 end markets.